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U.S. HOME SALES - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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U.S. HOME SALES. 5.2 million. 4.9 million. 2008 2009. U.S. HOME INVENTORY. 10 months. 8.3 months. 2008 2009. U.S. HOME MEDIAN PRICE. $198,100. $173,500. 2008 2009. 1 ST TIME HOMEBUYER MARKET. 47%. 41%. 2008 2009. LOCAL HOME SALES. 76,697. 67,963. 2008 2009.
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- Jumbo financing harder to obtain.
- Higher down payments required
- Highest credit borrowers
- Slower sales of their existing houses
- Slowdown in top executive transferees
- Drop in household wealth
- New HUD Guidelines
- 3.5% down for 580 credit score
- MIP up to 2.25 % from 1.75%
- Seller concessions down to 3% from 6%
“An estimated 2.4 million foreclosed homes will be added to the existing glut in 2010, driving prices down by another 10 percent or so.” N.Y. Times
“A record 3 million homes will be seized this year.” Realty Trac
- Loan Modification (HAMP)
- 116,000 homeowners (12%) have successfully used HAMP
- Three of the largest banks in the U.S. processed under 11% of borrowers Similar to most banks in U.S.
- System can prevent only fraction of the 8-13 million foreclosures over next 4 years
- Short Sales
- 12% of all mortgage holders not current
- 23% owe more than properties are worth
- Forecast
- Will climb from 391,000 to 483,000 in 2010
- Demand for more than 20,000 new homes next year in this market
- Housing starts will increase to 16,000-18,000 in 2010
- Forecast
- Steady increase through the first half of 2010
- Increase will result from the government sponsored tax credit programs
- Second half of 2010 will rely on employment and stable interest rates
- Interest Rate Forecast
- Federal Reserve is currently buying virtually every mortgage originated in the country
- Buying spree is keeping mortgage rates about 0.5% to 1% lower than normal
- 30 year fixed rate mortgages will rise over the next eight quarters from an average of 4.9% to approximately 5.5% in 2010 and 6% in 2011
- Forecast
- Junk loans will be coming due for reset or for required refinance
- $134 billion of these loans will recast in these next two years
- 94% of these loans have a higher balance then they did at origination
- Forecast – Shadow Inventory?
- Flood of foreclosure postings during a relatively short time span
- Do we have an accurate picture of the distressed home loans
- Extend and pretend practices
- Forecast – Short Sales Solutions
- HAFA - streamline processing procedures
- Mandate specific response timelines
- Preapproved short sale terms REQUIRED
- American homeownership rate fell to 67.8% - lowest since early 2000
- Texas remained about 4 points lower than the national average
- Ranks 45 out of the 50 states in homeownership
- Boomers
- Less predictable
- Retire later
- Healthier
- Most want to stay put
- Younger Boomers
- Flatter incomes
- Smaller home equities
- Will feel recession longer
- Generation Y
- Slow to purchase
- Starter homes
- Modest prices
- Smaller lots
- Looking for Green features
- Hispanic Buyers
- Plan to buy in 5 years
- Creates wave of buyers
- $600 billion in home sales
- Workforce housing
- Not being addressed
- Supply cannot meet demand of the population
- Must live further out
- Contributes to traffic gridlock
- Workforce housing
- Mixed use development not a solution
- Priced at $300,000 and up
- Housing
- Extremely optimistic
- Still feeling effects of recession
- Strong business cycle
- Success for the real estate industry
