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U.S. HOME SALES. 5.2 million. 4.9 million. 2008 2009. U.S. HOME INVENTORY. 10 months. 8.3 months. 2008 2009. U.S. HOME MEDIAN PRICE. $198,100. $173,500. 2008 2009. 1 ST TIME HOMEBUYER MARKET. 47%. 41%. 2008 2009. LOCAL HOME SALES. 76,697. 67,963. 2008 2009.

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slide2

U.S. HOME SALES

5.2 million

4.9 million

2008 2009

slide3

U.S. HOME INVENTORY

10 months

8.3 months

2008 2009

slide4

U.S. HOME MEDIAN PRICE

$198,100

$173,500

2008 2009

slide6

LOCAL HOME SALES

76,697

67,963

2008 2009

slide7

LOCAL HOME MEDIAN PRICE

145,000

144,590

2008 2009

slide8

LOCAL HOME INVENTORY

6 months

5.6 months

2008 2009

slide9

LUXURY MARKET

38%

2008 2009

slide10

LUXURY MARKET

  • Jumbo financing harder to obtain.
  • Higher down payments required
  • Highest credit borrowers
  • Slower sales of their existing houses
  • Slowdown in top executive transferees
  • Drop in household wealth
slide11

NEW HOME STARTS

50,000

13,499

2006 2009

slide12

2009 HOME AFFORDABILITY

5.0%

4.7%

2009 Fed Rates

slide13

2009 HOME AFFORDABILITY

$64,000 Median Income

Affords 70.1% of Homes

Typical American Family

slide14

2009 HOME AFFORDABILITY

  • New HUD Guidelines
  • 3.5% down for 580 credit score
  • MIP up to 2.25 % from 1.75%
  • Seller concessions down to 3% from 6%
slide15

FORECLOSURES

“An estimated 2.4 million foreclosed homes will be added to the existing glut in 2010, driving prices down by another 10 percent or so.” N.Y. Times

“A record 3 million homes will be seized this year.” Realty Trac

slide16

FORECLOSURES

61,000

All

Time

High

2009 Foreclosure Filings

slide17

FORECLOSURES

+32%

+27%

+24%

C

O

L

L

I

N

T

A

R

R

A

N

T

+17%

D

E

N

T

O

N

D

A

L

L

A

S

2009 Foreclosure Filings

slide18

FORECLOSURES

  • Loan Modification (HAMP)
  • 116,000 homeowners (12%) have successfully used HAMP
  • Three of the largest banks in the U.S. processed under 11% of borrowers Similar to most banks in U.S.
  • System can prevent only fraction of the 8-13 million foreclosures over next 4 years
slide19

FORECLOSURES

  • Short Sales
  • 12% of all mortgage holders not current
  • 23% owe more than properties are worth
slide20

NEW HOME SALES

  • Forecast
  • Will climb from 391,000 to 483,000 in 2010
  • Demand for more than 20,000 new homes next year in this market
  • Housing starts will increase to 16,000-18,000 in 2010
slide21

EXISTING HOME SALES

  • Forecast
  • Steady increase through the first half of 2010
  • Increase will result from the government sponsored tax credit programs
  • Second half of 2010 will rely on employment and stable interest rates
slide22

HOME AFFORDABILITY

  • Interest Rate Forecast
  • Federal Reserve is currently buying virtually every mortgage originated in the country
  • Buying spree is keeping mortgage rates about 0.5% to 1% lower than normal
  • 30 year fixed rate mortgages will rise over the next eight quarters from an average of 4.9% to approximately 5.5% in 2010 and 6% in 2011
slide23

FORECLOSURES

+ 18%

Jan. Feb. March

slide24

FORECLOSURES

  • Forecast
  • Junk loans will be coming due for reset or for required refinance
    • $134 billion of these loans will recast in these next two years
    • 94% of these loans have a higher balance then they did at origination
slide25

FORECLOSURES

  • Forecast – Shadow Inventory?
  • Flood of foreclosure postings during a relatively short time span
  • Do we have an accurate picture of the distressed home loans
  • Extend and pretend practices
slide26

FORECLOSURES

  • Forecast – Short Sales Solutions
  • HAFA - streamline processing procedures
  • Mandate specific response timelines
  • Preapproved short sale terms REQUIRED
slide27

REAL ESTATE TRENDS

  • American homeownership rate fell to 67.8% - lowest since early 2000
  • Texas remained about 4 points lower than the national average
    • Ranks 45 out of the 50 states in homeownership
slide28

REAL ESTATE TRENDS

  • Boomers
    • Less predictable
    • Retire later
    • Healthier
    • Most want to stay put
slide29

REAL ESTATE TRENDS

  • Younger Boomers
    • Flatter incomes
    • Smaller home equities
    • Will feel recession longer
slide30

REAL ESTATE TRENDS

  • Generation Y
    • Slow to purchase
    • Starter homes
    • Modest prices
    • Smaller lots
    • Looking for Green features
slide31

REAL ESTATE TRENDS

  • Hispanic Buyers
    • Plan to buy in 5 years
    • Creates wave of buyers
    • $600 billion in home sales
slide32

REAL ESTATE TRENDS

  • Workforce housing
    • Not being addressed
    • Supply cannot meet demand of the population
    • Must live further out
      • Contributes to traffic gridlock
slide33

REAL ESTATE TRENDS

  • Workforce housing
    • Mixed use development not a solution
      • Priced at $300,000 and up
slide34

REAL ESTATE TRENDS

  • Housing
    • Extremely optimistic
    • Still feeling effects of recession
    • Strong business cycle
    • Success for the real estate industry
slide35

Thank You

for

Your Time