Overview of Drug Discovery and Pharmaceuticals. Yasmin Crawford, C.E.O. Global Pharma Sales growth in single digits through to 2009. Constrained by payers and providers as they grapple with ageing population Supported by more cautious/sceptical regulators
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Overview of Drug Discovery and Pharmaceuticals Yasmin Crawford, C.E.O
Global Pharma Sales growth in single digits through to 2009 • Constrained by payers and providers as they grapple with ageing population • Supportedby more cautious/sceptical regulators • With increasingpatient acceptance of generics • Except in areas of specific unmet medical need supported by evidence based medicine • More scrutiny of products pre and post launch • US is critical to the success but increasingly susceptible to cost containment with Medicare
World Pharma Market • 10 major markets support growth above 6% • US will continue to dominate but with lower growth • Major driver for growth still volume
Drug Discovery • Fewer NCEs launched to market! 2004 (30) 2007 (<20) • Approx 8000 active products in preclinical to phase IV • 1600 oncology products in registration in US 2006, Phases I-IV • GSK (~130) and Sanofi Aventis (~110) hold the largest number of molecules under R&D • Biotechnology accounts for over 25% of the product pipeline • Few blockbusters across therapeutic segments • Markets changing towards technological improvements • Acquisition of smaller specialist companies • Manufacturing forced to tailor their capabilities *adapted from IMS data 2005
Biological Industry ripe for attack! • Global Biotech Market tops $45billion • Fastest Growing sector • Makes up 25% of pharma R&D portfolio • Launch of first EPO biosimilar June 2007 • Pathway to approve biosimilars launched in the US in June 2007 *Based on 8 Generics Markets(IMS)
Generic Injectable Market, an opportunity • Overall Hospital sector main growth driver from 2005 • Generics in Europe capture 60% of branded sales in 6months for off patent molecules • Global Generic Market $45billion • European Market expected to boom to $35.9billion by 2013 • Western European Injectable Market, €3billion • 5 Major Markets - UK 24%, FR 23%, GE 17%, IT & SP11% • Largest therapeutic areas, Oncology 29%, infection 26%, Cardiology 11% Pain 9% • Generic Sales will rise at least at 10% per year • 80% Rx written generically in the UK • Overall generic growth rising at 15% at least twice that of the branded market • Improved regulation speeds product to market and allows development whilst the patent is still enforced
Major pending Patent Expiry, examples • Oncologics • Irinotecan (2009),Gemcitabine (2009), Docetaxol (2009 • Biologics • EPO (launched 2007), G-CSF (2008/9), Copegus (2009), Humira (2013), Enbrel (2015) • Anti-infectives • Meropenem (May 2009), Moxifloxacin (2014) • Anaesthetics • Desflurane (2009), Ropivacaine (2010) • Others • Tacrolimus (2009), Quetiapine (2012)
Investment Opportunities • Small molecules • Re-Formulation/Re-Packaging • Niche Products • Hospital Products • New proven Technologies • Bioequivalence reduced patient numbers • Time to market shorter • Improved Regulation • New line extensions • Products withdrawn from the market • More flexible Manufacturing available
Types of investments and Listed Successes • Most recent acquisitions in the generics industry… • Matrix invested in Focus pharmaceuticals, mainly tablet generic pharma company for £3.2m, debt & equity(~11%) • Generic Trade sales made by Indian Companies for Distribution routes into Europe and UK • Typical Generic pharma P/E ratios are 20-30x, Hikma plc (LSE) trades at 29x, Teva (NYSE) 20x • Larger pharma acquiring technology and more specialist niche R&D companies
2009 and on…. • China moves into top 10 markets • Blockbuster numbers growing for niche markets that do not require mass marketing efforts • Expansion of Medicare will bring cost benefit to centre stage • Parallel import trade has slowed in Europe and the USA but whilst price variation exists there is a possibility of renewed growth, providing there is efficient supply chain management. • Major generics start to cannibalise other brands in class in Europe so all products in class at risk ?
Elegant Science, is it enough? • Payerswant clear directional evidence that links cost:benefit to appropriate targets • Providerswant clarity and simplicity as well as player endorsement • Patients will want proof that polypharmacy is safe • Pharma needs to improve its credibility and tolerate generics • Communication amongst all players will take a quantum leap of faith!
Overview of Drug Discovery & Pharmaceuticals Yasmin Crawford, C.E.O