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Market Analysis For Mutual Fund Investors. Michael Price Investors OnTrack, Inc. 850-934-6300 admin@mprice.net. An Overview. A Structured Approach to Market Analysis. Business Cycle Breadth Market Indexes Global Trends Sector Trends Fund Selection Hedging.

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market analysis for mutual fund investors
Market Analysis For Mutual Fund Investors

Michael Price

Investors OnTrack, Inc.

850-934-6300

admin@mprice.net

An Overview

a structured approach to market analysis
A Structured Approach to Market Analysis
  • Business Cycle
  • Breadth
  • Market Indexes
  • Global Trends
  • Sector Trends
  • Fund Selection
  • Hedging
business cycle
Business Cycle
  • Is the growth rate of the economy increasing or decreasing?
  • Is the economy growing at, above, or below the rate that the Fed considers to be inflationary?
  • Is the Fed trying to slow or to stimulate the economy?
  • Are corporate profits likely to increase or decrease in the foreseeable future?
slide4

The Typical Business CycleAs Described by Martin Pring in the All-Season Investor

  • Stage I – Bond Prices Bottom
    • Bonds Bullish
    • Stocks Bearish
    • Commodities Bearish
  • Stage II – Stocks Bottom
    • Bonds Bullish
    • Stocks Bullish
    • Commodities Bearish
  • Stage III – Commodities Bottom
    • Bonds Bullish
    • Stocks Bullish
    • Commodities Bullish
  • Stage IV – Bond Prices Top
    • Bonds Bearish
    • Stocks Bullish
    • Commodities Bullish
  • Stage V – Stocks Top
    • Bonds Bearish
    • Stocks Bearish
    • Commodities Bullish
  • Stage VI – Commodities Top
    • Bonds Bearish
    • Stocks Bearish
    • Commodities Bearish

The Economy

Bond Prices

Stock Prices

Commodity Prices

breadth
Breadth
  • Is the current advance or decline narrow or broad?
  • What are the implications of very negative or very positive breadth?
  • What role does volume play?
  • Reference : The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicator by Gregory L. Morris.
market indexes
Market Indexes
  • Are the major market indexes in agreement about the trend direction?
  • Does the market have a capitalization bias?
  • Does the market have a value – growth bias?
  • Relative strength comparisons.
where s the money going
Where’s the Money Going?
  • Market Watch List
  • Sector Watch List
fund selection
Fund Selection
  • What funds are performing best in the current market environment?
  • What is the current environment?
  • How do I measure performance?
portfolio development
Portfolio Development
  • What does a plot of my portfolio look like?
  • How does it compare to market indexes?
  • What is my level of portfolio risk?
  • Should I be hedged in the current market environment?
suggestions
Suggestions
  • Look at a LOT of charts.
  • Read a lot – looking for facts, not opinion, or at least fact-based opinion.
  • Draw on your experience, special knowledge and intuition.
  • Limit risk.
  • Have realistic expectations.
  • Value your own opinion, no one knows what tomorrow will bring.