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Global climate change: Scenarios and Impacts Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk FOUR QUESTIONS Is global climate changing? Why is global climate changing? What impact is this having in Europe? How will climate change in the future?

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slide1

Global climate change:

Scenarios and Impacts

Clare Goodess

Climatic Research Unit

University of East Anglia

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk

slide2

FOUR QUESTIONS

Is global climate changing?

Why is global climate changing?

What impact is this having in Europe?

How will climate change in the future?

slide3

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/

  • This co-operative cluster of projects brings together European expertise in the fields of climate modelling, regional downscaling, statistics, and impacts analysis to explore future changes in extreme events in response to global warming.

Project Web Sites:

  • PRUDENCE will provide high-resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for Europe using regional climate models.   PRUDENCE project summary
  • STARDEX will provide improved downscaling methodologies for the construction of scenarios of changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events.   STARDEX project summary
  • MICE uses information from climate models to explore future changes in extreme events across Europe in response to global warming.   MICE project summary

MICESTARDEXPRUDENCE

Last modified:16 August 2002

Contact Information

The three projects are supported by the European Commission under the Framework  V Thematic Programme ”Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development” (EESD), 2002-2005.

Scroll down for Project Summaries: follow the links above to Project Web Sites.

Hit Counter

Web Site designed and implemented by Tom Holt,© 2002Comments and suggestions welcome: t.holt@uea.ac.uk

Copyright information:the above photo montage was created in XaraX using copyright pictures from: © Collier County Florida Emergency Management and © Environment Agency.

PRUDENCE

STARDEX

MICE

slide4

FOUR QUESTIONS

Is global climate changing?

Why is global climate changing?

What impact is this having in Europe?

How will climate change in the future?

slide5

Patterns of Global Temperature Change

© Climatic Research Unit

slide6

Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA)

temperature over the last 1000 years

© Climatic Research Unit

slide7

FOUR QUESTIONS

Is global climate changing?

Why is global climate changing?

What impact is this having in Europe?

How will climate change in the future?

intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
  • Second assessment report 1998:
    • ‘the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate’
  • Third assessment report 2001:
    • ‘there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities’
slide11

FOUR QUESTIONS

Is global climate changing?

Why is global climate changing?

What impact is this having in Europe?

How will climate change in the future?

slide12

1958-2000 trend in frost days

Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing

Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

slide13

1958-2000 trend in frost days

Athens

February 2004

Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing.

Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

slide14

1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days

Scale is days per year. Red is increasing

Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

slide15

Western Europe

August 2003

1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days

Property damage: US$ 13 bn

Fatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France)

Scale is days per year. Red is increasing

Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

slide16

1958-2000 trend in

heavy summer (JJA) rain events

Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing

Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

slide17

1958-2000 trend in

heavy summer rain events

Fatalities: > 100

Economic losses: > US$18 bn

Insured losses: > US$3 bn

Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing

Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX

Central and Eastern Europe

August 2002