Getting Serious about Stakeholder Analysis Piloting Political Science Methods in World Bank Operational Work Why Do We Need Stakeholder Analysis? Experience suggests many Bank-supported reforms fail because of low client commitment
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Piloting Political Science Methods in World Bank Operational Work
Gorbachev had developed a strategy to defuse opposition to his program to transform political and economic structures in the USSR? Hillary Clinton had been able to manage friends and foes in her efforts to push radical reform on health care in the U.S.?
George Bush had analyzed stakeholder positions before going to a vote in the UN Security Council on the war in Iraq?
Could Stakeholder Analysis have changed history…..???
Pilot Program Analyzed Politics of High Profile Governance Issues in 2 East Asian Client (Low and Middle-Income) Countries
Country A (Low-income):
Anti-corruption (Broad reform initiative plus customs and procurement reform)
Civil Service Pay and Employment Reform
Country B (middle-income):
Anti-corruption (Broad reform initiative plus customs, procurement, and revenue reforms)
What was the likelihood of movement on desired governance reforms?
Which reform areas should Bank emphasize or de-emphasize in its programs?
Which actors were pivotal in reform process?
How should the Bank position itself in the reform process and debate?
Opposite extreme stakeholder position
Extreme stakeholder position
Stakeholder A position
Stakeholder C position
Stakeholder B position
Round x: Stakeholder positions and influence are analyzed to determine the winning outcome based on each stakeholder’s expected utility.
Model goes through risk propensity, stakeholder perceptions, policy proposals, and stakeholder policy shifts to simulate bargaining process.
Outcome forecast, predicted timeframe
Negotiations stop if stakeholders see no
further gains from continuing discussions
Domestic support for reform is too limited to expect substantive progress on the overall agenda.
Policy Steps of the Reform Process
Implement Modern Customs Authority
Streamline Customs Administration
Strengthen Anti-Smuggling Task Force
New Customs Code to
New Customs Code to Council of Ministers
Upgrade Computers & Telephones
Pro-reform stakeholders pressure PM to move agenda forward. New customs code and strengthened anti-smuggling measures likely.