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Erice International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies 42 nd Session 19-24 August 2009 Giorgio Simbolotti Senior Advisor Energy Technology (Enea, President’s Office)

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erice international seminars on planetary emergencies 42 nd session 19 24 august 2009
Erice International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies42nd Session 19-24 August 2009

Giorgio Simbolotti

Senior Advisor Energy Technology (Enea, President’s Office)

Beyond Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies To Face Climate Change?

ENEA - Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Environment

Some 2000 Researchers and 10 Labs in Italy: Nuclear and Renewable Energy,

Energy Efficiency, Biotechnology, Material Science, Environment and Climate

questions rather than messages
Questions rather than messages …

If IPPC conclusion is correct, energy-related emissions must be reduced by more than 50% by 2050

  • Is this objective still achievable using “emerging” low-carbon technologies ?
  • Is the current strategy correct ?
  • Are we on the verge of a technology revolution? And which one?

Based on IEA energy projections:

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2008

World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2008

etp 2008 in summary
ETP 2008 in Summary

Two basic mitigation scenarios:

ACT: emissions back to 2005 level by 2050

 BLUE: 50% emissions reduction by 2050

Variants to explore technology uncertainties and regional diversification, e.g.: + Nuclear; - Renewable; - CCS; - Efficiency; + HE/FC Vehicles; + Fuel effic. in transport

Basic assumptions on energy prices not influenced by 2008 peak, nor by the current crisis (basic oil price $60-65/bbl)

Includes 2006-2008 technology cost rise

Explores potential of energy technologies “competing” in the global market

?

etp conclusions in one slide
ETP Conclusions (in one slide)
  • Mitigation is “technically and economically” achievable assuming:
  • immediate global commitment, and
  • urgent deployment of a number of emerging low-carbon techs (incl. early-stage techs, with R&D/cost uncertainties)
slide5

A number of Technologies …

CO2 Reduction by technology (Gt CO2/yr)

Baseline 2050 62 Gt

2012

Peak ?

BLUE 2050 14 Gt

  • Each technology can make a contribution, but there is no silver bullet !
  • Urgent deployment and cost reduction of a number of emerging low-carbon technologies
slide6

Economic Feasibility …

Negative Costs

Positive Costs

Current

CO2 price

(EU-ETS)

€14/t CO2

e.g. FC

vehicles

$500/t CO2 BLUE Tech. Pessimism

500

$200/t CO2 BLUE Tech. Optimism

100

$50/t CO2 ACT

50

$10/bbl oil price increase = $25/tCO2 abatement incentive

Under the ETP oil price assumption ($60-65/bbl), CO2 abatements at $200/t come out for free at oil price of $140/bbl (June 2008) !

slide7

Is the Current Strategy Correct ?

Technology Implementation Challenges and Time Horizon

Source:

EU SET Plan

Implementation Challenges

Time Horizon

Today

2050

Key mitigation technologies involve high implementation challenges !

slide8

The Deployment Challenge …

Capacity Addition in ETP BLUE (GW)

Ambitious Deployment Rates and Targets !

2500

  • End-use efficiency rate: from less than <1%/yr to 1.7%/yr
  • II Gen biofuels (ligno-cellulosic, BTL): < $0.6/l in 2020
  • 1 mln HVs in 2010
  • 1 mln Plug-inVs in 2025
  • 800 mln EVs in 2050
  • 800 mln FCs in 2050

Wind on-s 2200

2000

1500

Hystorical High: 200 GW Nuc in 1980-90

PV 1200

1000

Nuc III 1050

CSP 800

CCS pg 1100

500

Wind off-s 600

Nuc IV 250

0

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Source: IEA ETP data

slide9

The Cost Challenge …

Construct. Time

Learning rate

Emissions

Fuel Cost

Energy Technologies Investment Cost ($x1000/kW)

CCGT

L

H

L

M

Projected

2020-2030

?

Current

H

H

LM

L

CCGT CCS

L

H

M

H

COAL PCC SC/UC

?

H

H

MH

L

COAL PCC CCS

COAL IGCC

M

H

MH

H

?

H

H

H

L

COAL IGCC CCS

NUC III

L

L

H

0

NUC IV

0

NA

?

H

L

H

?

BIOM ST/BIGCC/CHP

MH

LM

LM

0

BIOM COFIRING

LM

LM

M

0

?

LM

0

L

0

WIND ON

?

MH

0

LM

0

WIND OFF

HYDRO LARGE

L

0

H

0

HYDRO SMALL

L

L

0

0

?

CSP PT/ST

LM

MH

0

0

CSP SD

?

NA

L

H

0

0

PV Si

L

MH

0

0

PV TF

?

L

H

0

0

FC Power Gen

?

L

H

H

LM

Adv PV

2015 ?

H

0

L

0

?

FC Automotive

2020 ?

H

H

L

0?

?

Breakthrough

Technologies ?

0

9

0

1

2

3

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Data from IEA 2008 and others sources

which technology revolution
Which Technology Revolution ?
  • Basic and material sciences are currently exploring breakthrough technologies(*) that have the potential to change the way we generate and use energy, and promise short-term advances (2015-2020) and low-cost prospects …
  • Recently, we have seen new technologies to replace in a few years mature technologies and infrastructure, and radically change our habit (e.g., mobile phones, 1990-2005) …
  • Can we design a future other than the hard way depicted in current energy scenarios ? Can high-level scientific communities help select promising technology options and lead the process?

(*)e.g.: Highly-efficient, low-cost PV; Membranes for CO2 capture; Microalgae for biofuels; Photo-electrolysis; Artificial photo-synthesis; Low-cost FC; Marine energy; HT solar dishes; Gen IV fast breeders; Adv. energy storage; Portable power; Piezoelectric devices, Power electronics; Oled lighting; etc.