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USING HISTORY TO SHAPE THE FUTURE -- OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL WORLD WIDE CHEMICAL CONFERENCE JUNE, 2000 OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL FUTURE USE OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS WILL DEPEND ON WHAT LESSONS ARE DRAWN FROM HISTORY

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using history to shape the future operation double steal

USING HISTORY TO SHAPE THE FUTURE -- OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

WORLD WIDE CHEMICAL CONFERENCE

JUNE, 2000

operation double steal
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • FUTURE USE OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS WILL DEPEND ON WHAT LESSONS ARE DRAWN FROM HISTORY
  • TO USE THESE WEAPONS, ONE MUST KNOW THE EFFECT THEY HAVE HAD IN THE PAST
  • CONSIDER THE BALCK AND THE SPANISH FLU
operation double steal3
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE BLACK DEATH
    • EUROPE BEFORE THE PLAGUE
    • THE RISE OF CITIES
    • THE RISE OF COMMERCE
    • THE SIEGE OF KAFFA
    • THE USE OF BIO WARFARE IN THE MIDDLE AGES
    • THE DISEASE IS SPREAD BY OXCART AND SHIP
operation double steal4
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE BLACK DEATH
    • THE FERTILE GROUND OF EUROPE
    • THE LACK OF PREPARATION
    • LACK OF MEDICAL KNOWLEDGE
    • A TENDENCY TOARD HYSTERIA
    • THE PLAGUE TAKES HOLD -- GOD ABANDONS EUROPE
    • THE MECHANICS OF DISPOSAL
operation double steal5
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE BLACK DEATH
    • ENTIRE VILLAGES WIPED OUT
    • ALL SORTS OF REMEDIES WERE TRIED
    • SOCIAL ORDER BROKE DOWN
    • MENTALLY ILL PEOPLE, THOSE WITH HANDICAPS, ANIMALS WERE ATTACKED ANDKILLED -- THEY WERE BLAMED
operation double steal6
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE BLACK DEATH
    • THE COST IN LIVES
      • 30% OF EUROPE DIED
      • CIVILIZATION WS SET BACK A GENERATION OR MORE
      • SOCIAL ORDER AND COMMERCE BADLY DISRUPTED
      • IT WAS PREVENTABLE IF EUROPE HAD KNOWN THE CAUSE
operation double steal7
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE BLACK DEATH
    • EVENTUALLY THE DISEASE BURNED ITSELF OUT
    • RE-OCCURRED IN EUROPE FOR OVER A DECADE AT IRREGULAR INTERVALS
    • WHAT STOPPED THE PLAGUE WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF BETTER SANITARY CONDITIONS
operation double steal8
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
    • THE PLAUGE EPENDED ON UNHYGENIC CONDITIONS -- CONDITIONS LARGELY ERADICATED
    • DOCTORS CAN DETECT THE PLAGUE AND TREAT IT
    • THE PLAUGE IS A RARITY NOW
    • UNIT 731 TIRED TO WEAPONIZE IT
operation double steal9
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
    • THE PLAGUE WOULD HAVE TO BE ENGINEERED AS A WEAPON
    • RUSSIANS MAY HAVE BEEN DOING JUST THAT
    • TECHNOLOGY MAY HAVE BEEN SHARED WITH OTHERS
    • USE OF NATURALLY OCCURRING VIRUS VITAL
operation double steal10
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
    • THE PLAGUE OCCURRED 5 CENTURIES AGO
    • CITIZENS HAVE NO RECENT MEMORY TO ALARM THEM
    • NO ONE FEELS THREATENED
    • BUT WE HAVE A MORE RECENT PLAGUE TO PROVIDE SOME ALARM -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917
operation double steal11
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917
    • ORIGINS OF THE PLAGUE
      • BEGAN AT FORT RILEY, KANSAS
      • LARGE MANURE PILE BURNED AND WIND CARRIED ASHES ALL OVER THE POST
      • NEXT DAY, SOLDIERS STARTED COMING DOWN WITH THE FLU
      • ARMY PANICKED -- SENT TROOPS OVER TO EUROPE
operation double steal12
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917
    • ORIGINS OF THE PLAGUE
      • THEY BROUGHT THE DISEASE WITH THEM
      • PEOPLE IN EUROPE BEGAN TO COME DOWN TITH THE DISEASE
      • FLU SPREAD TO THE GERMANS, AND THEN MOVED EAST BY STATES
      • IN FACT, THE DISEASE MOVED AROUND THE WORLD AND RE-ENTERED THE U.S. THROUGH THE WEST COAST
operation double steal13
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917
    • NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDER
      • HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE AFFECTED -- WHOLE FAMILIES
      • SPREAD RAPIDLY THROUGH THE POPULATION BY CONTACT
      • PEOPLE DIED WITHIN A FEW DAYS FROM THE ONSET OF THE SYMPTOMS
operation double steal14
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917
    • NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDER
      • MORGUES RAN OUT OF ROOM
      • PEOPLE CEASED TO GO OUTUSIDE AND INTERACT WITH OTHERS
      • SCHOOLS AND STORES WERE CLOSED
      • THE ECONOMIC LIFE OF THE NATION BEGAN TO GRIND TO A HALT
      • PEOPLE BEGAN TO BLAME OTHERS
operation double steal15
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917
    • NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDER
      • POPULATION MIGRATED TO THE COUNTR FROM THE CITIY AND MERELY SPRED THE FLU
      • PEOPLE TOOK UP RELIGION AS THEY HAD DURING THE BLACK DEATH
      • FAMILIES LOST SIGNIFICANT MEMBERS ONE AFTER THE OTHER
      • AS QUICKLY AS IT AROSE, THE FLU DISAPPEARED
      • JUST AT THE RIGHT TIME -- SOCIETY WAS BEGINNING TO COME APART
operation double steal16
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
    • THE FLU HAS NOT NORMALLY BEEN LISTED AS A POTENTIAL WEAPON
    • HISTORICAL EVIDENCE THAT IT CAN RAVAGE A POPULATION
    • FLU OCCURS NATURALLY AND ALMOST EVERY YEAR
    • AN EASY WEAPON TO TEST -- ITS SO NATURAL TO HAVE IT
operation double steal17
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
    • FLU CAN BE UPGRADED TO BE MORE MORE LETHAL
    • IF A KILLER FLU WAS USED, SOCIAL ORDER AND MEDICAL FACILITIES WOULD BREAK DOWN
    • WHO WOULD KNOW THIS TYPE OF FLU WAS A WEAPON
operation double steal18
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
    • FLU IS A PERFECT WEAPON BECAUSE IT SPREADS SO RAPIDLY AND ITS POINT OF ORIGIN CAN EASILY BE MASKED
    • BIOWEAPONS HAVE NOT BEEN USED SINCE 1945 BECAUSE OF THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR RETALIATION
operation double steal19
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING
    • INFRASTRUCTURE OF PREPARATION
      • WEAPON MUST BE IDENTIFIED EARLY
      • DISEASE MUST BE KEPT WITHIN PARAMETERS
      • CENTRAL DIRECTION TO FIGHT THE DISEASE AND ITS SPREAD
      • CIVIL AUTHORITIES MUST BE PREPARED FOR THIS TYPE OF CONTINGENCY
      • FIRST RESPONDERS MUST IDENTIFY WHAT IT IS AND SPREAD ALARM
operation double steal20
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE MOST IMPORTANT KNOWLEDGE
    • HISTORY SHOWS IF BIOWEAPON IS FULLY DPLOYED, THE DAMAGE CAN BE CATASTOPHIC
    • MUST THINK OUT OF THE BOX -- NORMAL TERMS OF REFERENCE DO NOT APPLY
    • IF WE FORGET JUST ONE, IT IS ALL OVER
    • NEVER ASSUME THAT THE ENEMY WILL USE LETHAL -- THERE IS A DEFINITE PLACE FOR NONETHAL CHEMICALS AND BIO AGENTS
operation double steal21
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE MOST IMPORTANT KNOWLEDGE
    • KNOWLEDGE OF THE BLACK DEATH, THE SPANISH FLU, AND OTHER PLAGUES IN HISTORY CAN GIVE A NATION THE INFORMATION IT NEEDS TO PLAN A BOLD AND SWIFT STROKE TO CHANGE THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE WORLD
    • IT’S ALL ABOUT POWER
operation double steal22
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE USE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL
    • IN BASEBALL, WHEN TWO RUNNERS ARE ON BASE AND THE 3RD BASE COACH SIGNALS FOR A DOUBLE STEAL, THEY RUN ON THE NEXT PITCH TO GET INTO SCORING POSITION
    • YOU CAN GET TWO RUNS INSTEAD OF ONE BY RISKING ONE OR BOTH RUNNERS
    • A HIGH RISK, BUT THE PAYOFF IS BIG
operation double steal23
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • OPERATIONAL DOUBLE STEAL
    • RATIONALE: THE CHANGING OF THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE PACIFIC RIM
    • BRINGS TOGETHER THREE OLD COMRADES -- CHINA, NORTH KOREA, AND RUSSIA
    • THE STAKES ARE ENORMOUS
    • POWER COMES TO THOSE WHO DARE
operation double steal24
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • NOTE: THIS SCENARIO IS FICTION
    • BUT, REMEMBER TWENTY THOUSAND LEAGUES UNDER THE SEAS
    • THE SUBMARINE NAUTILUS WAS FICTION THEN, BUT THAT TYPE OF A SUBMARINE IS COMMON NOW
    • FICTION CAN BECOME REALITY
operation double steal25
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • GIVENS:
    • NORTH KOREA, RUSSIA, AND CHINA HAVE LARGE AND CAPABLE BIOWEAPONS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES
    • NORTH KOREA’S GOAL IS TO REUNITE THE SOUTH
    • CHINA WANTS TO TAKE OVER TAIWAN
    • BOTH CANNOT REACH THEIR DREAMS WHILE THE U.S. CAN INTERVENE
operation double steal26
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • GIVENS:
    • CURRENT U.S. POLICY IS CLEAR -- USE CHEMICAL OR BIOWEAPONS AGAINST US, AND RETALIATION WILL BE MASSIVE AND MAYBE NUCLEAR
    • PROBLEM: HOW TO DEVELOP A PLAN USING CHEMICAL AND BIOAGENTS THAT WOULD RENDER THE U.S. HARMLESS WITHOUT RISKING NUCLEAR EXCHANGE
operation double steal27
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THERE IS A WAY
  • PLANNING CYCLE UNDERSTANDINGS:
    • TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA MUST BE ATTACKED AND OVERRUN BEFORE U.S. CAN INTERVENE IN STRENTH
    • PRESENT U.S. WITH FAIT ACCOMPLI AND GIVE U.S. LEADERSHIP A TERRIBLE CHOICE
operation double steal28
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THERE IS A WAY
  • PLANNING CYCLE UNDERSTANDINGS:
    • “WE HAD TO DESTROY THE VILLAGE TO SAVE IT” SYNDROME
    • NO PRESIDENT SHOULD EVER BE FACED WITH THIS TYPE OF A DECISION
operation double steal29
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE RIDDLE OF TAIWAN
    • CAPABLE OF DEFENDING ITSELF, BUT RELATIONS WITH PRC ARE DELICATE ABOUT PROVIDING MILITARY HARDWARE
    • CHINA IS BUILDING UP TECHNOLOGY TO MARCH ANY POTENTIAL FOE
    • GEOGRAPHY OF TWIWAN LIMITS WHAT PLA CAN DO TO SEIZE ISLAND
    • CHINESE NAVY DOES NOT HAVE AMPHIBIOUS FORCES FOR FULL SCALE LANDINGS
operation double steal30
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE RIDDLE OF TAIWAN
    • ANY ATTEMPT TO SEIZE THE ISLAND WOULD HAVE TO TAKE LESS THAN 3 DAYS
    • IT WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERWHELMING IN SCOPE AND POWER
    • TIED INTO THE IDEA OF THE INDIRECT APPROACH
operation double steal31
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE INDIRECT APPROACH
    • USE OF INFORMATION WARFARE TO BLIND DEFENSES
    • USE OF BIOAGENTS TO DESTROY COMPUTERS
    • USE OF SIMILAR AGENTS TO DISRUPT TELEPHONE, RADIO, AND TELEVISION
    • WAY IS PREPARED BY EPIDEMIC OF A POWERFUL FLU
operation double steal32
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE INDIRECT APPROACH
    • THE FLU IS SPRAYED OVER THE ISLAND BY STEALTH GLIDERS CONTROLLED BY THE PRC
    • WHEN FLU TAKES FULL EFFECT INFORMATION WARFARE IS INITIATED
    • SPECIAL FORCES USING NON-LETHAL CHEMICAL AGENTS TAKES OVER KEY COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS
operation double steal33
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE INDIRECT APPROACH
    • USING LOW FLYING AIRCRAFT, WEAPONS AND VEHICLE PARKS ARE SPRAYED WITH IRRITANT CHEMICAL AGENTS THAT WILL MAKE THEIR USE DIFFICULT AND REQUIRE DECONTAMINATION
    • THE FIFTH COLUMN -- WHO HAVE BEEN IMMUNIZED TO THE FLU WILL THEN TAKE OVER TV AND RADIO TO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF EDUCATION OF THE PUBLIC
operation double steal34
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE NEUTRALIZATION OF “BIG BROTHER”
    • USING AGENT IN PLACE ASSETS AND INFORMATION WARFARE
      • U.S. SATELLITES ARE TEMPORARILY DISABLED -- THIS WILL APPEAR TO BE A NATURAL GLITCH
      • U.S. MILITARY PERSONNEL -- PARTICULARLY USAF, NAVAL, AND FAST DEPLOYING U.S. ARMY GROUND FORCES WILL COME DOWN WITH THE FLU
operation double steal35
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE NEUTRALIZATION OF “BIG BROTHER”
    • USING AGENT IN PLACE ASSETS AND INFORMATION WARFARE
      • PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE WILL HAVE BEGUN EARLIER WITH ARTICLES INDICATING THE THEME “WHY FIGHT FOR TAIWAN”
      • NON-LETHAL BIO AGENTS WILL BE USED TO NEUTALIZE ANY FAST DEPLOYING U.S. FORCE, PARTICULARLY USAF AIRCRAFT
operation double steal36
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE FALL OF TAIWAN
    • LANDING FORCE OF SPECIAL TROOPS WOULD BE HIDDEN IN SPECIFICALLY CONSTRUCTED SHIPS -- Erskine Childers: THE RIDDLE OF THE SANDS
    • LAND AT KEY TAIWANESE PORTS
    • TROOPS WILL BE DRESSED SIMILARLY TO NATIONALIST FORCES
    • GOVERNMENT OF LOCAL TAIWANESE WITH PRC CONNECTIONS WILL BE NAMED, AND THEY WILL CALL FOR CALM FROM THE POPULACE
operation double steal37
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE FALL OF TAIWAN
    • CHINESE MISSILES WILL COMMAND THE FORMOSA STRAITS
    • CHINESE KILO CLASS SUBS WILL PATROL OFF TAIWAN TO INTERCEPT AND STOP ANY U.S. NAVY TASK FORCE
    • TAIWAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY RESTORED UNDER PLA CONTROL
operation double steal38
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
    • NORTH KOREA USES A SIMILAR SYSTEM TO TAKE SOUTH KOREA
    • BUT, THERE ARE U.S. TROOPS STATIONED IN SOUTH KOREA
    • PLAN TO DEAL WITH THEM
operation double steal39
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
        • U.S. TROOPS ARE LOCATED IN ENCLAVES AND NOT AMONG THE GENERAL POPULATION
        • THEY WOULD BE NEUTRALIZED WITH ATTACKS USING NON-LETHAL FLU, AND DEGRADING CHEMICAL AGENTS FOR WEAPONS AND VEHICLE PARKS
        • SINCE ROKA AND U.S. HAVE C&C AREAS, THEY WOULD BE NEUTRALIZED USING NON-LETHAL AGENTS AND SPECIAL OPERATIONS UNITS
operation double steal40
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
    • THE NORTH KOREAN ARMY IS REPUTED TO HAVE AMONG THE BEST TRAINED SPECIAL FORCES IN THE WORLD
    • THEY HAVE BEEN TESTING THE DEFENSES OF SOUTH KOREA FOR DECADES
    • THEY KNOW WHERE THE HOLES ARE
operation double steal41
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
    • HERE’S HOW ITS DONE
      • CRIPPLE C&C SYSTEM WITH USE OF NON-LETHAL CHEMICALS AND BIO-AGENTS
      • ACTIVATION OF TH COLUMN FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL AND DISRUPTIVE OPERATIONS
      • INFACT THE S. KOREAN POPULATION WITH POWERFUL BUT NON-LETHAL FLU VIRUS
      • USE POWERFUL NON LETHAL BIO-CHEMICAL AGENTS TO FORCE DECONTAMINATION OF VEHICLES AND EQUIPMENT
operation double steal42
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
    • HERE’S HOW ITS DONE
      • USE OF EMP
      • USE OF NKPA SPEICAL FORCES -- SNIPER BRIGADES FOR DISRUPTOR MISSIONS AND SEIZURE OF KEY POSITION AND TERRAIN
      • USE OF TUNNELS NOT DISCOVERED TO MOVE BALANCE OF STRKING FORCE INTO SOUTH KOREA
operation double steal43
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA
    • HERE’S HOW ITS DONE
      • NORTH KOREA SEEDS SKIES AROUND SOUTH KOREA WITH BIO AGENTS TO DISRUPT INCOMING U.S. REINFORCMENTS -- BY PLANE
      • S. KOREAN AIR BASES SPRAYED WITH DISRUPTIVE AGENTS TO PRECLUDE THEIR IMMEDIATE USE
operation double steal44
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • U.S. RESPONSE
    • AS IN TAIWAN SITUATION. ONLY POSSIBILITY IS A BREAK-IN OPERATION
    • THOUSANDS OF U.S. LIVES AT STAKE, AND TO TAKE BACK S. KOREA WOULD INVOLVE DEATHS OF THOUSANDS OF KOREAN
    • NO U.S. PRESIDENT SHOULD HAVE TO MAKE THIS DECISION
operation double steal45
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE
  • NEED TO DEVELOP MEASURES TO COUNTER DISRUPTOR WEAPONS AGAINST C&C AND INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
  • CONSIDERATION NEED TO BE GIVEN TO ALL CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS THAT ARE NOT LETHAL AND PROGRAMS DEVELOPED TO NEGATE THEIR EFFECT
operation double steal46
OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL
  • LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE
    • IF WE IGNORE THE LESSONS OF THE PAST, THESE NEW TYPE OF WEAPONS CAN REDUCE AMERICA’S MILITARY FROM THE BEST TECHNOLOGICAL FORCE IN THE WORLD, TO USING BOWS AND ARROWS
    • SURRENDER MIGHT BE OUR ONLY OPTION