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CHAPTER 9 Stocks and Their Valuation

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  1. CHAPTER 9Stocks and Their Valuation Features of common stock Determining common stock values Efficient markets Preferred stock by Donglin Li

  2. Facts about common stock • Represents ownership • Ownership implies control • Stockholders elect directors • Directors elect management • Management’s goal: Maximize the stock price by Donglin Li

  3. Types of stock market transactions • Initial public offering market (“going public”) (Company sells shares to the public for the 1st times.) • Secondary market (stockholders sell shares to each other) by Donglin Li

  4. Stock Market Transactions • Apple Computer decides to issue additional stock with the assistance of its investment banker. An investor purchases some of the newly issued shares. Is this a primary market transaction or a secondary market transaction? • Since new shares of stock are being issued, this is a primary market transaction. • What if instead an investor buys existing shares of Apple stock in the open market – is this a primary or secondary market transaction? • Since no new shares are created, this is a secondary market transaction. by Donglin Li

  5. Different approaches for valuing common stock • Dividend growth model • Corporate value model • Using the multiples of comparable firms by Donglin Li

  6. Dividend growth model • Value of a stock is the present value of the future dividends expected to be generated by the stock. by Donglin Li

  7. Constant growth stock • A stock whose dividends are expected to grow forever at a constant rate, g. D1 = D0 (1+g)1 D2 = D0 (1+g)2 Dt = D0 (1+g)t • If g is constant, the dividend growth formula converges to: by Donglin Li

  8. $ 0.25 0 Years (t) Future dividends and their present values by Donglin Li

  9. What happens if g > rs? • If g > rs, the constant growth formula leads to a negative stock price, which does not make sense. • The constant growth model can only be used if: • rs > g • g is expected to be constant forever by Donglin Li

  10. If rRF = 7%, rM = 12%, and b = 1.2, what is the required rate of return on the firm’s stock? • Use the SML to calculate the required rate of return (rs): rs = rRF + (rM – rRF)b = 7% + (12% - 7%)1.2 = 13% by Donglin Li

  11. 0 1 2 3 g = 6% 2.12 2.247 2.382 D0 = 2.00 1.8761 rs = 13% 1.7599 1.6509 If D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6%, find the expected dividend stream for the next 3 years, and their PVs. by Donglin Li

  12. What is the stock’s intrinsic value? • Using the constant growth model: by Donglin Li

  13. What is the expected market price of the stock, one year from now? • D1 will have been paid out already. So, P1 is the present value (as of year 1) of D2, D3, D4, etc. • Could also find expected P1 as: by Donglin Li

  14. What are the expected dividend yield, capital gains yield, and total return during the first year? • Dividend yield = D1 / P0 = $2.12 / $30.29 = 7.0% • Capital gains yield = (P1 – P0) / P0 = ($32.10 - $30.29) / $30.29 = 6.0% • Total return (rs) = Dividend Yield + Capital Gains Yield = 7.0% + 6.0% = 13.0% by Donglin Li

  15. 0 1 2 3 rs = 13% ... 2.00 2.00 2.00 What would the expected price today be, if g = 0? • The dividend stream would be a perpetuity. by Donglin Li

  16. Supernormal growth:What if g = 30% for 3 years before achieving long-run growth of 6%? • Can no longer use just the constant growth model to find stock value. • However, the growth does become constant after 3 years. by Donglin Li

  17. 0 1 2 3 4 rs = 13% ... g = 30% g = 30% g = 30% g = 6% D0 = 2.00 2.600 3.380 4.394 4.658 2.301 2.647 3.045 4.658 = = $66.54 46.114 3 - 0.13 0.06 54.107 = P0 Valuing common stock with nonconstant growth $ P ^ by Donglin Li

  18. If the stock was expected to have negative growth (g = -6%), would anyone buy the stock, and what is its value? • The firm still has earnings and pays dividends, even though they may be declining, they still have value. by Donglin Li

  19. Find expected annual dividend and capital gains yields. • Capital gains yield = g = -6.00% • Dividend yield = 13.00% - (-6.00%) = 19.00% • Since the stock is experiencing constant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are constant. Dividend yield is sufficiently large (19%) to offset a negative capital gains. by Donglin Li

  20. Corporate value model • Also called the free cash flow method. Suggests the value of the entire firm equals the present value of the firm’s free cash flows. • Remember, free cash flow is the firm’s after-tax operating income less the net capital investment • FCF = NOPAT – Net capital investment by Donglin Li

  21. Applying the corporate value model • Find the market value (MV) of the firm. • Find PV of firm’s future FCFs • Subtract MV of firm’s debt and preferred stock to get MV of common stock. • MV of = MV of – MV of debt andcommon stock firm preferred • Divide MV of common stock by the number of shares outstanding to get intrinsic stock price (value). • P0 = MV of common stock / # of shares by Donglin Li

  22. Issues regarding the corporate value model • Often preferred to the dividend growth model, especially when considering number of firms that don’t pay dividends or when dividends are hard to forecast. • Similar to dividend growth model, assumes at some point free cash flow will grow at a constant rate. • Terminal value (TVn) represents value of firm at the point that growth becomes constant. by Donglin Li

  23. 0 1 2 3 4 r = 10% ... g = 6% -5 10 20 21.20 -4.545 8.264 15.026 21.20 398.197 530 = = TV3 0.10 - 0.06 416.942 Given the long-run gFCF = 6%, and WACC (weighted average cost of capital) of 10%, use the corporate value model to find the firm’s intrinsic value. by Donglin Li

  24. If the firm has $40 million in debt and has 10 million shares of stock, what is the firm’s intrinsic value per share? • MV of equity = MV of firm – MV of debt = $416.94m - $40m = $376.94 million • Value per share = MV of equity / # of shares = $376.94m / 10m = $37.69 by Donglin Li

  25. Firm multiples method • Analysts often use the following multiples to value stocks. • P / E • P / CF • P / Sales • EXAMPLE: Based on comparable firms, estimate the appropriate P/E. Multiply this by expected earnings per share to back out an estimate of the stock price. by Donglin Li

  26. What is market equilibrium? • In equilibrium, stock prices are stable and there is no general tendency for people to buy versus to sell. • In equilibrium, two conditions hold: • The current market stock price equals its intrinsic value (P0 = P0). • Expected returns must equal required returns. ^ by Donglin Li

  27. Market equilibrium • Expected returns are obtained by estimating dividends yield and expected capital gains yield. • Required returns are obtained by estimating risk and applying the CAPM. by Donglin Li

  28. How is market equilibrium established? • If expected return exceeds required return … • The current price (P0) is “too low” and offers a bargain. • Buy orders will be greater than sell orders. • P0 will be bid up until expected return equals required return by Donglin Li

  29. Factors that affect stock price • Required return (rs) could change • Changing inflation could cause rRF to change • Market risk premium or exposure to market risk (β) could change • Growth rate (g) could change • Due to economic (market) conditions • Due to firm conditions by Donglin Li

  30. Gap pays a dividend of 9 cents/share Gap has been as high as $52.75 in the last year. Given the current price, the dividend yield is ½ % Given the current price, the PE ratio is 15 times earnings Gap has been as low as $19.06 in the last year. 6,517,200 shares traded hands in the last day’s trading Stock Market Reporting Gap ended trading at $19.25, down $1.75 from yesterday’s close by Donglin Li

  31. Where can you find a stock quote, and what does one look like? • Stock quotes can be found in a variety of print sources (Wall Street Journal or the local newspaper) and online sources (Yahoo!Finance, CNNMoney, or MSN MoneyCentral). by Donglin Li

  32. Efficient Capital Markets • Stock prices are in equilibrium or are “fairly” priced • If this is true, then you should not be able to earn “abnormal” or “excess” returns, in expectation. • Efficient markets DO NOT imply that investors cannot earn a positive return in the stock market. • They do mean that, on average, you will earn a return that is appropriate for the risk undertaken and there is not a bias in prices that can be exploited to earn excess returns. by Donglin Li

  33. What is the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)? • Securities are normally in equilibrium and are “fairly priced.” • Investors cannot “beat the market” except through good luck or better information. • Levels of market efficiency • Weak-form efficiency • Semistrong-form efficiency • Strong-form efficiency by Donglin Li

  34. Weak-form efficiency • Can’t profit by looking at past price trends. A recent decline is no reason to think stocks will go up (or down) in the future. There is no predictable price pattern based on price path. • Real world evidence supports weak-form EMH, but “technical analysis” is still used by some people. by Donglin Li

  35. Efficient Market Theory • Technical Analysts • Forecast stock prices based on the watching the fluctuations in historical prices (thus “wiggle watchers”) by Donglin Li

  36. Semistrong-form efficiency • All publicly available information is reflected in stock prices, so it doesn’t pay to over-analyze annual reports looking for undervalued stocks. • Largely true in real world, but superior analysts can still profit by finding and using new information by Donglin Li

  37. Efficient Market Theory Average Annual Return on 1493 Mutual Funds and the Market Index by Donglin Li

  38. Implications of market efficiency • You hear in the news that a medical research company received FDA approval for one of its products. If the market is semi-strong efficient, can you expect to take advantage of this information by purchasing the stock? • No – if the market is semi-strong efficient, this information will already have been incorporated into the company’s stock price. So, it’s probably too late … by Donglin Li

  39. One-year-ahead hedge returns based on capital investment levels. ©Donglin Li 2004 • Go long the lowest investment stocks. • Go short the highest investment stocks. • 12 month size adjusted buy and hold hedge returns after May each year. • Positive in 36 out of 39 years, average 12.6% • Pattern is consistent with market mispricing. by Donglin Li

  40. Strong-form efficiency • All information, even inside information, is embedded in stock prices. That is, one cannot profit even on private information. • Not true--insiders can gain by trading on the basis of insider information, but that’s illegal. by Donglin Li

  41. Is the stock market efficient? • Empirical studies have tried to test the three forms of efficiency. • Highly efficient in the weak form. • Reasonably efficient in the semistrong form. • Not efficient in the strong form. Insiders could and did make abnormal (and sometimes illegal) profits. by Donglin Li

  42. What Makes Markets Efficient? • There are many investors out there doing research • As new information comes to market, this information is analyzed and trades are made based on this information • Therefore, prices should reflect all available public information, and almost instantly. by Donglin Li

  43. Preferred stock • Hybrid security. • Like bonds, preferred stockholders receive a fixed dividend that must be paid before dividends are paid to common stockholders. • However, companies can omit preferred dividend payments without fear of pushing the firm into bankruptcy. • No voting right. by Donglin Li

  44. If preferred stock with an annual dividend of $5 sells for $50, what is the preferred stock’s expected return? Vp = D / rp $50 = $5 / rp rp = $5 / $50 = 0.10 = 10% ^ by Donglin Li

  45. Exercises by Donglin Li

  46. by Donglin Li

  47. by Donglin Li