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USGS Global Change Science National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center and SE Regional Hub Sonya Jones USGS Southeast Area NIDIS Planning Meeting July 21-22, 2009 Chapel Hill, NC U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey http://nccw.usgs.gov/

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usgs global change science national climate change wildlife science center and se regional hub

USGS Global Change ScienceNational Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center and SE Regional Hub

Sonya Jones

USGS Southeast Area

NIDIS Planning Meeting

July 21-22, 2009

Chapel Hill, NC

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

http://nccw.usgs.gov/

usgs global change science development
USGS Global Change Science Development
  • National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC): A partnership to sustain fish & wildlife communities in natural systems
  • Climate Effects Network: A vision for a national climate early-warning system
  • Carbon Sequestration: Geological and biological approaches to understanding the fluxes, sequestration and impacts on human and natural systems
partner listening sessions
Partner Listening Sessions
  • National Meeting – December 2008
  • North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference – March 2009
  • Eastern Region – May 2009
  • Central Region – June 2009
  • Western Region – June 2009
  • National Meeting – July 2009
national climate change wildlife science center
National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center
  • A partnership to sustain fish & wildlife communities
  • Forecasts fish & wildlife change through:
    • Down-scaled climate models and derivative products
    • Integration with ecological & habitat models
    • Defining population and habitat responses at appropriate scales
    • Developing response options in an adaptive monitoring framework
  • Joint decision-making with Federal, State and NGO communities
  • National and regional focus on adaptation/impacts
slide5

National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center

Regional Climate Science Hubs

Oversight Boards

NCCWSC

  • Science
  • Decision-making
  • Down-scaling of GCMs
  • Regional Response
  • - Eco & Population Models
  • Forecasting
  • National Syntheses
  • Standardized Approaches
  • New Science & Methodologies
  • Communication

NEON

National Partnerships

Adaptive Application Partnerships

RISA

USDA

  • GIS & Models
  • Species/habitat assessment
  • Adaptive Mgmt monitoring
  • Feedback
  • Carbon Cycling (?)

NASA

NPN

CEN

nccwsc priorities
NCCWSC Priorities
  • Analyses of climate information and derivative products
    • Forecasts of fish and wildlife population and habitat change in response to climate change
    • Integration of physical climate information with ecological and habitat response models
    • Standardized approaches to facilitate linking existing monitoring to climate models and ecological and biological response models
  • Communication - sharing information across Regional Hubs and making science products available to natural resource managers
slide7

NCCWSC APPROACH

NCCWSC National Office

Regional Climate Science Hub

Global Climate Model

Downscaling

Science-based

Ecosystem Response

&

Forecasting

Regional Habitat &

Population Response

Adaptive Application Partnerships

Forecasting

Habitat & Species

Response

Food

Habitat

Recruitment

Management-based

Adaptive Management & Monitoring

Site Specific Species or Populations Response

regional climate science hubs
Regional Climate Science Hubs

Partnerships are key

  • Cover the Nation (7or 8)
  • Science-based
  • University hosted
  • Ecological & political

boundaries

  • Self-generating
    • Covering multiple AAP’s/LCC’s
regional climate science hubs9
Regional Climate Science Hubs
  • Downscaled climate information – linked with ecological/biological response models at scales that help managers develop effective adaptive management strategies
  • Regional response modeling and forecasting of fish and wildlife population and habitat changein response to climate change
  • Derivative products - that link biological and ecological response variables with physical forcing factors (e.g. temperature and precipitation)
  • Modeling possible response scenarios for managers to use in an adaptive management framework
adaptive application partnerships
Adaptive Application Partnerships
  • Four to six per Hub
  • Landscape/geography-based
  • Partnership-led
  • Regional Climate Science Hub Outputs:
    • Combination of expression w/other landscape drivers
    • Geographic expression of ecological & habitat nodes from RCSH’s at management scales
    • Priority management goals and time frames
adaptive application partnerships11
Adaptive Application Partnerships
  • USGS Commitments
    • Research & Modeling
    • Adaptive response forecasts including other drivers
    • Monitoring protocols
  • USGS Benefits
    • Strengthening RCSH output
    • Builds traditional strengths
    • Partners with other expertise
    • Leverages resources
    • Feeds CEN & other monitoring needs
se regional science hub pilot
SE Regional Science Hub Pilot
  • Demonstration project: integrates climate change science with habitat and species response models to assess impacts on avian and aquatic species
  • Cast predictive models calibrated from data gathered during recent decades
    • NOAA Climate data
    • Remote sensing data
    • USGS - BBS & MAPS data
    • Downscaled climate models
    • Watershed modeling
se regional science hub pilot13
SE Regional Science Hub Pilot
  • Regional probabilistic projections of climate change to support all projects
  • Regional probabilistic projections of landuse change to support all projects
  • Pilot Projects
    • Ecological models to project impacts to avian and aquatic species (SAMBI and ACF basin)
    • Sea-level rise – impacts on coastal fish and wildlife (AL & MS)
    • Integrate terrestrial and aquatic habitat conservation
se regional science hub pilot14
SE Regional Science Hub Pilot
  • Staffing
    • Science lead/coordinator
    • climate modeler
    • Ecological/habitat modeler
    • data management/support
  • Location
    • University TBD after RFI
  • Products
    • Regional climate models
    • Regional land use change models
    • Regional ecological models
    • Data management
  • Integration with AAPs
    • Ecoregionally based teams responsible for finer scale biological planning and conservation design