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Land use and water Resources. Presented at GECAFS Conference in Katmandu, Nepal. By Dr. Pervaiz Amir. June 29-30, 2006. Coverage of this presentation. Land Use/Land Cover Change as Driver for Water related Stresses (extreme events)

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land use and water resources
Land use and water Resources

Presented at GECAFS Conference in Katmandu, Nepal

By

Dr. Pervaiz Amir

June 29-30, 2006

coverage of this presentation
Coverage of this presentation
  • Land Use/Land Cover Change as Driver for Water related Stresses (extreme events)

2. Some Brief Findings of APN Funded Activities in two Selected SHU Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas

studies sources
Studies/Sources

Land Use, Historical Perspectives focus on Indo-Gangetic Plains. Editors Y.P Abrol; Satpal Sangwan and M K Tiwari Allied Publishers. New Delhi. 2000

Socio-economic aspects of drought in Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas Hydrological Units of Pakistan. Science and Culture. Vol 71 No7-8 July-August, 2005 the Indian Science News Association. New Delhi.

Climate Change and Water resources in South Asia- Proceedings of Year end Workshop Kathmandu, 7-9 January, 2003 (APN)

Current Issues in Water Sector

(Pakistan Water CAS-World Bank)- Pakistan’s Water Economy Running Dry

In India: India’s Water Economy Bracing for Turbulent Future

objectives apn project
OBJECTIVES-APN Project
  • Analyze recent climate variability and extreme events, and impacts on regional water resources
  • Assess impacts of projected CC & variability and associated extreme events, and socio-economic changes, on water resources
  • Determine vulnerability of regional water resources to CC; identify key risks to each sub-region and prioritize adaptation responses
  • Evaluate efficacy of various adaptation strategies or coping mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of regional water resources
  • Provide inputs to relevant national and regional long-term development strategies
slide8

Agro Ecological Zones:

Main features of the agro-ecological zones of Pakistan

slide11

E = Estimated

R = Repeated of last year.

Source:- Provincial Agriculture Departments.

GEOGRAPHICAL AEA is that area which has been surveyed and calculated by the Survey of Pakistan.

TOTAL AEA REPORTED is the total physical area of the village/deh, tehsil or district etc.

FOREST AERA is the area of any land classed or administered as forest under any legal.Enactment dealing with forests. Any cultivated area which may exist within such forest should be exclude (and shown under heading cultivated area).

slide12

Land Use/Land Cover As Driver of ChangeLand Use f { Resource Endowments, Land Q, History, Pop, climate (T and P)-changes, skills and tradition, Type of Agriculture, Infrastructure, Water Q and Availability +Investments,profitability Development Goals, T }

virtual water content
Virtual Water Content
  • Agriculture viewed as virtual water outputs that result in net transfer of water when the produce is sold
  • Thus a water deficient country when it exports wheat, rice, meat, beef and cheese, is essentially using a large input of water that it transfers to water scarce nations
  • In Pakistan wheat produced in Punjab and Sindh is being exported to neighboring provinces, NWFP and Balouchistan-

A what if Crisis in the Making- Wheat failure in India or China and these countries enter in as big buyers in the international arena!

survey objectives
Survey Objectives
  • To provide data on key aspects of Livelihood, Drought, Changes in magnitude, Rainfall pattern, Agriculture, Livestock, and certain coping mechanisms.
  • To report on farmers perceptions about Drought in the areas of Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas.
slide24

Any other damages experienced

70

60

Percentage

Cattle

50

Poultry

40

Grazing ground

Vegetable

30

Garden

20

Fruit Orchard

10

0

Description

slide25

Adjustments adopted to cope with the last drought? (n=113)

Source: APN Survey, June 2003-Bahawalpur

Note: Due to multiple responses, sample size exceeds 113

Effectiveness of water user organizations to motivate the farmers to solve the problems related to water use? (n=113)

Source: APN Survey, July 2003-MirPur Khas

findings of apn survey
Findings of APN Survey
  • Land size small, dependence on desert and periphery on livestock. Carrying capacity becoming problem during drought
  • Minimal govt or NGO support. Food main expense. Income low and uncertain
  • Main reason for drought rainfall. High shadow price of water during drought
  • Little application of advanced technology, sprinkler, centrifuge-Egypt, Israel
  • Droughts damage crops, livestock, pastures, gardens and distort livelihood
  • Major difference in crop and livestock yields . Statistically significant
  • Decision making framework compels step-wise adoption. Need drought and salt tolerant varieties
slide27
Water scarcity, well digging now at 250 feet. We must conserve total water, price it and regulate its use No more a free good.
  • Considerable political turmoil. Droughts fueling controversy.
  • Linear application inappropriate
  • Drought forces an Exit strategy where options exist. Food security not problem but purchasing power lacking
  • Water user association, extension in-effective. Livestock extension rated good. Policy interventions needed.
  • People Cope with livestock sale, equipment, gold and belongings. Long tem impacts on human lives, asset inventory, and sustainability of systems
  • Droughts affect people physiologically, depress them and changes their perspective on life
cc findings
CC Findings
  • 92% of the country’s area is arid to semi-arid – thus the climate change will have negative impact on availability of water because of:
    • Extremes are going to be severe i.e. droughts
    • Reduced rainfall in the arid and semi-arid monsoonal regions
    • Reduced snowfall in the valleys of the arid winter dominant rainfall regions of Balochistan
sum up land use and water
Sum up land Use and Water
  • Change in water availability is evident – impacts of variability or climate change – persistent drought is a phenomena of severity of extremes
  • Increasing trend in Water Demand – competing water users – people, agriculture, nature
  • Physical limitations with the surface water resources
  • Groundwater Resource Limitations -Quantity and Quality – exploiting the marginal quality zone
meeting the water stress challenge in agriculture
Meeting the Water Stress Challenge in Agriculture
  • Water conservation (raised bed furrow technology)
  • Efficiency options (sprinkler, trickle, drip etc.)
  • New Storages for Regulation
  • Supply and Demand Management
  • Addressing water Rights an entitlements
  • Managing the Management Nexus
macro implication of water saving with adoption of resource conservation technologies
Macro Implication of Water Saving with Adoption of Resource Conservation Technologies

Source: OFWM, 1999-2000 and Dhillon and Sidhu, 2004