Is TAP(I) Still an Option An Afghan Prospective By: Nasir A. Andisha
Background • TAP officially began 30 May 2002 • steering committee of the ministers of oil and gas (Mines) from the three countries • Asian Development Bank (ADB) as development partner and to grant regional technical assistance, 16th Sept.2002
ADB’s Role • Feasibility study, 2002- updated 2005 • Risk mitigation and market study(Pak gas) • Security challenges, 2005 report by ADB • Framework and Model Agreements
PlayersProducer • Turkmenistan: limited export options • LNG not an option, build liquefaction facilities, ports and tankers, transit routs • Pipelines: Westward pipeline, complication of Caspian's offshore waters • TAP(I) Pipeline, foreseeable future option
Consumer IPakistan • Expected 6-7% GDP growth, can absorb the exported 30bm3/yr • Natural gas is 53% of energy mix natural • Gas production is expected to decline over the next 15-25 year period, while demand is expected to increase • TAP(I) and IPI competitive to LNG option • Pakistan Energy yearbook.2005
IndiaConsumer II • India GDP growth 9.4% • Increase in Natural Gas consumption 12.77bcm 1991 to 31.33bcm 2005-6 • Focus on energy security policy (joins the project • End of this month) • Energy Security Division in the Ministry of External Affairs- India
Afghanistan High level political Commitment toward the Policy of Regional Coop.
National Priority projectsRegional Cooperation • Ring road- lowering transit time (regional Project) • Purchase and transit of Electricity (regional Project) • Counter Narcotics/Smuggling (regional Project) • TAP(I) Pipeline (regional Project) • ECT membership- Dec 08
Govt. AfghanistanResponsible Agencies • Ministry of Mines, focal point HoD in (StC) • Ministry of Foreign Affairs-Newly established, Economic Cooperation Division, Directorate of Trade,Transit and Foreign Investment (StC member) • Secretariat of Afghanistan National Development Strategy & office of senior economic advisor for the President of IRA. (Supervisor)
TAP(I) in National Development Strategy Project Description Current Status Bottlenecks Action Required
Challenges • The process of discussion too slow and dominated by regional politics • Turkmen commitment and status of reserves. • Deterioration of security along the proposed line. • ADB-$20M Security plan • Private sector interest • Shell, Indian private sector ?
Alternative Route Green lines are electricity Grids currently under cons -traction
The momentum • Next Steering Committee Meeting 19 Nov • India’s official membership • India-Pakistan energy security needs • Central Asia-South Asia Regional Coop
Thank you • Sources: • www.mfa.gov.af • www.ands.gov.af • www.adb.orghttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Pakistan/Background.html • http://petroleum.nic.in