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Is TAP(I) Still an Option An Afghan Prospective By: Nasir A. Andisha

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Is TAP(I) Still an Option An Afghan Prospective By: Nasir A. Andisha Asian Development Bank Study Background TAP officially began 30 May 2002 steering committee of the ministers of oil and gas (Mines) from the three countries

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slide1
Is TAP(I) Still an Option

An Afghan Prospective

By: Nasir A. Andisha

background
Background
  • TAP officially began 30 May 2002
  • steering committee of the ministers of oil and gas (Mines) from the three countries
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB) as development partner and to grant regional technical assistance, 16th Sept.2002
adb s role
ADB’s Role
  • Feasibility study, 2002- updated 2005
  • Risk mitigation and market study(Pak gas)
  • Security challenges, 2005 report by ADB
  • Framework and Model Agreements
players producer
PlayersProducer
  • Turkmenistan: limited export options
  • LNG not an option, build liquefaction facilities, ports and tankers, transit routs
  • Pipelines: Westward pipeline, complication of Caspian's offshore waters
  • TAP(I) Pipeline, foreseeable future option
consumer i pakistan
Consumer IPakistan
  • Expected 6-7% GDP growth, can absorb the exported 30bm3/yr
  • Natural gas is 53% of energy mix natural
  • Gas production is expected to decline over the next 15-25 year period, while demand is expected to increase
  • TAP(I) and IPI competitive to LNG option
  • Pakistan Energy yearbook.2005
india consumer ii
IndiaConsumer II
  • India GDP growth 9.4%
  • Increase in Natural Gas consumption 12.77bcm 1991 to 31.33bcm 2005-6
  • Focus on energy security policy (joins the project
  • End of this month)
  • Energy Security Division in the Ministry of External Affairs- India
national priority projects regional cooperation
National Priority projectsRegional Cooperation
  • Ring road- lowering transit time (regional Project)
  • Purchase and transit of Electricity (regional Project)
  • Counter Narcotics/Smuggling (regional Project)
  • TAP(I) Pipeline (regional Project)
  • ECT membership- Dec 08
govt afghanistan responsible agencies
Govt. AfghanistanResponsible Agencies
  • Ministry of Mines, focal point HoD in (StC)
  • Ministry of Foreign Affairs-Newly established, Economic Cooperation Division, Directorate of Trade,Transit and Foreign Investment (StC member)
  • Secretariat of Afghanistan National Development Strategy & office of senior economic advisor for the President of IRA. (Supervisor)
slide11
TAP(I) in National Development Strategy

Project Description Current Status Bottlenecks Action Required

challenges
Challenges
  • The process of discussion too slow and dominated by regional politics
  • Turkmen commitment and status of reserves.
  • Deterioration of security along the proposed line.
  • ADB-$20M Security plan
  • Private sector interest
  • Shell, Indian private sector ?
alternative route
Alternative Route

Green lines are electricity

Grids currently under cons

-traction

the momentum
The momentum
  • Next Steering Committee Meeting 19 Nov
  • India’s official membership
  • India-Pakistan energy security needs
  • Central Asia-South Asia Regional Coop
slide15
Thank you
  • Sources:
  • www.mfa.gov.af
  • www.ands.gov.af
  • www.adb.orghttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Pakistan/Background.html
  • http://petroleum.nic.in
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