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‘Eurabia?

‘Eurabia? . The Foreign Policy Implications of West Europe’s Religious Composition in 2025 and Beyond’ Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk. 'Eurabia' Discourse, 2015. America (Steyn, Lewis) Europe (Bolkestein, Chesnais, etc)

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‘Eurabia?

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  1. ‘Eurabia? The Foreign Policy Implications ofWest Europe’s Religious Composition in 2025and Beyond’ Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

  2. 'Eurabia' Discourse, 2015 • America (Steyn, Lewis) • Europe (Bolkestein, Chesnais, etc) • 2015 is scaremongering, but: • What are the demographic trends? • What are the political implications for domestic and foreign policy?

  3. Modernity, Demography, Politics • In the long run, populations stable • Demography: Modernity Brings Demographic Transition • Politics: Modernity Makes Numbers Count, Not Kings • 'Masses Ushered into History': what the masses believe matters: • Nation • Ethnic group • Class • Even religion (not of the king, but popular creeds)

  4. Modernity = Demographic Conflict? • Telescopes Global Instability within nations • Uneven Demographic Transition, uneven age structures. Global migration pressures. • Nationalism: geopolitics. Which nation is growing, which losing, which old, which young? • Liberty: relaxed immigration. Permits global demographic instability to affect the country • Democracy: elections as a census. Which ethnic group will dominate the election and hold power? • Equality: more rights and entitlements. Which ethnic group pays tax, which gets the benefit?

  5. Modernity: Pacific Forces • Technology: insulates small, rich countries from populous poor aggressors • Liberty: softens inter-ethnic and inter-national boundaries (??) • Nationalism: integrates or assimilates internal ethnic diversity (??) • Modernity and Demography: where does the balance lie? Arguably the conflict drivers are more potent than the mitigators

  6. Demographic Change and Ethnic Violence • Tight Ethnic Boundaries + Demographic Change: • Lebanon • Israel/Palestine • N. Ireland • Bosnia • Kosovo • Uganda • Ivory Coast • Assam/India • USA c. 1840-60; 1885-1925? France, c. 1900?

  7. Ethnic Change in the West • Looser ethnic boundaries + integration can dissipate conflict • California: 90 pc white in 1960; 50 pc in 2000; 30 pc in 2050; USA 90 pc white in 1960, 50 pc white in 2050 • UK: 8 pc nonwhite in 2001, 25 pc in 2050; • No 'Rivers of Blood', despite demographic change

  8. Takes Two to Tango • Inter-Faith Marriage: from 90 pc endogamy to 50 pc among American Jews and Catholics after 1960 • Inter-Racial Marriage: 1/3 of Hispanics, ½ of East Asians, even 10 pc of African-Americans in USA • UK: more children with one white and one black parent being born than with two black parents • Holland: high Indonesian and Caribbean intermarriage • Gellner & counter-entropic resistance (Jews) • Will Muslim minorities follow the trend?

  9. Source: (Maréchal 2002)

  10. Source: Goujon et al. 2006

  11. Muslim Demographic Trends • Austria 9-10 pc Muslim in 2025 • Switzerland 7-8 pc Muslim in 2025 • Current Estimate: W. Europe 7-8 pc Muslim in 2025 – similar to France today • Urban concentration in 'majority minority' cities: Amsterdam (49 pc non-Dutch in 2004); Leicester (50 pc nonwhite by 2010, Birmingham by 2027) • Younger: 1/5 UK births to foreign-born mother; ½ in London; 1/3 in Moscow; 15 pc in Rome

  12. No Muslim Secularization W. European Muslim sample of 3.17%, N = 174

  13. Low Muslim Secularization……

  14. Political Effects in 2025 • Effects felt first in maternity wards and primary schools, much later in voting booth. 2025 too early. • Unless immigrant groups concentrate in 'swing' constituencies (i.e. California, Florida and Hispanics) • Foreign Policy: More likely effect is media and political elite fears of youth radicalization

  15. A Delayed Effect Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007

  16. Wildcards • White v. Nonwhite coalition (nationalist cleavage) • Christian-Secular anti-Muslim coalition (civilizational cleavage) • Muslim-Christian 'religious' coalition?: 55% of London's Christians are nonwhite. More mosque attendance than Anglican. Shift from ethnic-sectarian to religious cleavage in USA, 1968-1980. (moral-religious cleavage)

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