Probabilities and Proportions. Lotto. I am offered two lotto cards: Card 1: has numbers Card 2: has numbers Which card should I take so that I have the greatest chance of winning lotto?. Roulette.
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I am offered two lotto cards:
Which card should I take so that I have the greatest chance of winning lotto?
In the casino I wait at the roulette wheel until I see a run of at least five reds in a row.
I then bet heavily on a black.
I am now more likely to win.
I am about to toss a coin 20 times.
What do you expect to happen?
Suppose that the first four tosses have been heads and there are no tails so far. What do you expect will have happened by the end of the 20 tosses ?
What is Chapter 3 trying to do?
I toss a fair coin (where fair means ‘equally likely outcomes’)
Head and tail
I choose a person at random and check which eye she/he winks with
Left and right
The probability of getting a four when a fair dice is rolled is
1/6 (0.1667 or 16.7%)
212/348 (0.609, 60.9%)
= card drawn is a spade, club or diamond
“given that”, “of those”, “if …”, “assuming that”
“The probability of event A occurring given that event B has already occurred”
is written in shorthand as P(A|B)