1. Assignment E Epidemiologic Assignment: : Q Qu uantification of Malaria Kits for Preparedness pidemiologic D Data in Gambella antification of Malaria Kits for Preparedness based on ata in Gambella based on Background Context In July 2025, following an unusually long rainy season, the Gambella Region of Ethiopia reports a sharp rise in malaria cases. According to the Regional Health Bureau, malaria incidence has increased by 60% compared to the same period last year. Health posts and centers in three woredas (Abobo, Gog, and Itang) are reporting medicine shortages and increased patient loads. The Regional Emergency Operations Center (EOC) requests technical support to quantify and preposition malaria emergency kits to cover potential outbreaks for the next three months. Background Context The target population for each woreda is estimated as follows: Woreda Total Population % in Malaria Endemic Zone 85% 90% 70% At-Risk Population Abobo Gog Itang Total 65,000 47,000 78,000 55,250 42,300 54,600 152,150 Situation Description Routine stock levels of antimalarial medicines at health posts are below 20% of minimum required levels. RDT stockouts have been reported in 30% of facilities. Heavy rains have disrupted access to rural kebeles, and internal displacement from flood-affected areas (approx. 12,000 people) increases transmission risk. The Regional EOC has decided to preposition malaria kits at 15 Health Centers (HCs), 45 Health Posts (HPs), and 3 temporary IDP sites. Situation Description Objective of the Exercise The quantification team tasked to determine: Objective of the Exercise

2. •The number and types of malaria kits required for preparedness in the region for 3 months •The estimated total cost (using assumptions) •The storage and cold chain considerations •A brief distribution and monitoring plan Data Provided Each Malaria Kit supports 10,000 people for 3 months. The total at-risk population is 152,150 people. The malaria positivity rate is 28% (attack rate). The proportion of malaria species: P. falciparum 65%, P. vivax 30%, Mixed 5%. Each Health Post serves 5,000 people, each Health Center 20,000, and each IDP site 4,000 people. Data Provided Tasks for Students Quantification •Calculate the number of malaria kits required for preparedness for 3 months. •Determine the types of kits needed (excel spreadsheet attached) •Estimate the total number of each kit type required by level of care. Cost Estimation •Assume a base cost of USD 3,000 per kit (includes medicines, diagnostics, consumables) •Add logistics and overhead costs (20%) to estimate the total procurement cost. •Present the total estimated budget for the response. Storage and Distribution Plan •Identify which facilities should receive which kits. Propose a storage and cold chain strategy. •Outline monitoring tools (LMIS forms, bin cards, consumption reporting). Reporting and Utilization •Suggest how utilization data should be collected and used to trigger replenishment or reallocation. Tasks for Students Quantification Cost Estimation Storage and Distribution Plan Reporting and Utilization Expected Deliverables •A quantification table showing population, malaria type, kit type, and quantities • A cost summary table with total and per-kit costs •A one-page logistics summary (storage, transport, reporting) •A brief recommendation memo to the Regional EOC summarizing preparedness needs Expected Deliverables