Research Update What is Changing in the Midstream Industry? Becca Followill Houston February 11, 2009 *Disclaimers on page 37 of this document. Energy Snapshot Where are we? (February 6, 2009) Current 2008 (% ) YTD ’09 (%) Majors (XOI) 975 - 37% 0%
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What is Changing in the Midstream Industry?
February 11, 2009
*Disclaimers on page 37 of this document.
~42% (400) rigs activity decline in 2001 impacted supply growth in 2002:
2000 42.8 bcf/day
2001 43.9 bcf/day
2002 43.6 bcf/day
6% onshore supply growth with ~flat rig count from early 2006 – early 2008.
Recent decline is due to Gustav/Ike related impacts. Onshore supply growing 10% y/y in 2008.
Source: Baker Hughes, EIA, TPH Estimates
Source: RigData, Tudor Pickering Holt
US GDP and Total Power Generation Load
US natural gas demand driven by electricity sector expansion and growth
Source: Oil and Gas Journal 2008, Company Press Releases, Tudor, Pickering, Holt
Source: ICIS Plants & Projects Database, Company Press Releases, Tudor, Pickering, Holt
10-18-08 Naphtha prices in Asia drop by 50% since early August
10-24-08 India’s largest petrochem major to have halved PP run rates
10-27-08 Weak demand compels Formosa to extend crack shutdown indefinitely
11-3-08 Equistar Idles Olefin Plant in Texas
11-11-08 Ineos plans shutdown of 2 polypropylene units in Texas
11-26-08 UK’s BPI to Close Northeast England Facility
11-28-08 German Petrochem Sector to Face Difficult times Ahead
12-6-08 DuPont to Eliminate 2,500 Employees in Western Europe, US
12-9-08 Dow to Cut 11% of work force, Shutter 20 plants
12-11-08 Dow Set to Re-evaluate Scope of Proposed Oman Project
12-12-08 Japanese Ethylene production falls to 12-yr lows
12-25-08 China's largest ethylene producer expects to suffer major loss in 2008
12-29-08 Kuwait calls off Dow Chemical’s US $17.4B JV
12-31-08 Work on Qatar-based multi-billion petrochem complex stalled
1-5-09 LyondellBasell’s Chocolate Bayou C2-C3 facility shuttered indefinitely
1-6-09 Ethylene and propylene prices strengthen in Asia
1-6-09 Taiwan's Formosa puts 700,000 tpa cracker off stream due to demand
1-8-09 LyondellBasell’s US operations file Chapter 11
1-14-09 Sunoco to shutter polypropylene plant in Bayport
1-16-09 Equistar plans to restart La Porte olefin unit
1-19-09 Asian benzene plants hike run rates on demand recovery
1-20-09 BASF cautions of potential cuts in production and jobs
1-20-09 Rohm & Haas to shutter plants and cut 900 jobs
1-21-09 Sunoco to permanently down the shutters at PP plant in Texas
1-24-09 Huntsman to lay off 9% of total workforce; shut UK-based TiO2 plant
1-29-09 LyondellBasell announces €100/ton increase in PE prices in Europe
1-29-09 Equistar Chemicals plans restart of La Porte olefins unit by end of month
1-31-09 INEOS NOVA announces up polystyrene prices in EuropeMidstream – Diary of a Cycle
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