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Future of Cloud Computing Bob Marcus Robert.marcus@gmail.com “The best way to predict the future is to invent it” Alan Kay Co-inventor of Smalltalk, GUIs, Object-Oriented Programming Cloud Computing Capabilities Roadmap Process Current Cloud Computing Technology + Vendors Input

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future of cloud computing
Future of Cloud Computing

Bob Marcus


“The best way to predict the future is to invent it” Alan KayCo-inventor of Smalltalk, GUIs, Object-Oriented Programming
cloud computing capabilities roadmap process

Cloud Computing Capabilities Roadmap Process

Current Cloud Computing Technology + Vendors


Government, Industry, and Research Cloud Initiatives


Use Cases with Timelines

Map to

Required Capabilities for Use Cases

Addressed by

Planned Capabilities Roadmap

Capabilities = Best Practices + Standards + Technology

status of cloud service levels
Status of Cloud Service Levels
  • SaaS
    • Best practices under development
    • Vendors (e.g. Salesforce, Microsoft, Facebook, Zoho, Google)
  • IaaS
    • Standards under development
    • Vendors (e.g. Amazon, Eucalyptus, IBM, VMware partners)
  • PaaS
    • Technology under development
    • Vendors (e.g. Google, Microsoft, Force.com, RightScale)




From http://federalsoa.wik.is/

current status of saas
Current Status of SaaS
  • SaaS (Best practices under development)
    • There are many SaaS companies e.g Salesforce.com and Netsuite using Cloud infrastructure to increase scalability
    • Google Apps and Zoho are SaaS competitors with MS Office
    • Microsoft SaaS implementations (e.g. Exchange) available
    • Traditional enterprise software vendors are moving to the Cloud (e.g. Oracle)
    • Interoperability between SaaS is possible using Web standards and middleware (possibly hosted in Cloud)
    • U.S. Government has created a SaaS Apps.gov Web site
    • There are several trade associations promoting SaaS
    • PaaS tools make it easier to create scalable, customized SaaS
eurocloud siia and saas showplace
EuroCloud, SIIA, and SaaS Showplace

EuroCloud - “Our goal in developing EuroCloud is to promote SaaS and cloud services and applications across Europe and encourage its take up” (Launch promoters include Amazon Web Services Microsoft, MacAfee, and 30 other companies) http://www.eurocloud.org/

SIIA – “Provides global services in government relations, business development, corporate education and intellectual property protection to the leading companies” (More than 500 members) http://www.siia.net/

SaaS Showplace - “The Showplace is the largest vendor-independent, online directory of SaaS solutions” (Over 1200 company listings) http://www.saas-showplace.com/

predictions for saas
Predictions for SaaS
  • There will be an explosive growth in SaaS applications due to:
    • Low cost of entry for vendors and users
    • Ability to rapidly deploy and update capabilities
    • Elasticity and scalability of billing
  • The key issues will be:
    • Choosing appropriate applications for SaaS deployment
    • Security, reliability, privacy, SLAs, integration
    • Avoiding lock-in to specific SaaS vendor
  • Leading SaaS vendors (e.g. Saleforce.com, Facebook) have or will attempt to become PaaS providers
current status of iaas
Current Status of IaaS
  • IaaS (Standards under development)
    • Multiple companies are offering IaaS services for storage and computing e.g. Amazon, GoGrid, Rackspace
    • Virtualization management tools (e.g from Citrix and VMware) are making it easier to create IaaS offerings
    • VMware’s vCloud will be the basis of several IaaS products
    • U.S. Government has created an IaaS Cloud Storefront
    • There will be a Session on “Cloud Roadmaps for IaaS” at a California standards meeting on December 10
    • Without PaaS tools and utilities, IaaS can be considered a different business model for hosting
agenda cloud interoperability roadmap session am
Agenda: Cloud Interoperability Roadmap Session (AM)
  • 8:00 – 8:30 (Rackspace) – Erik Carlson, Cloud Architect, Rackspace
  • 08:30 - 09:00(Open Cloud Consortium) - Surenda Reddy, VP of Cloud Computing, Yahoo
  • 09:00 - 09:30(IBM) - Ginny Ghezzo, Senior Development Manager, Emerging Technologies, IBM
  • 09:30 – 10:00(Microsoft) - Mark Ryland, National Standards Officer (USA), Microsoft
  • 10:15 – 10:45(Sun) - Lew Tucker, CTO of Sun's Cloud Computing Initiative
  • 10:45 – 11:15(RightScale) - Michael Crandell, CEO, RightScale
  • 11:15 – 11:45(Elastra) - Stuart Charlton, CTO, Elastra
agenda cloud interoperability roadmap session pm
Agenda: Cloud Interoperability Roadmap Session (PM)

11:45 – 12:00 (Eucalyptus) – Woody Rollins, CEO

13:00 – 13:30 (Cloud Security Alliance) - Nils Puhlmann, Co-founder, Cloud Security Alliance

13:30 – 14:30(NASA) - Chris Kemp, CIO of NASA Ames

14:30 – 15:00(GICTF) - Hiroshi Sakai, GICTF Secretariat, Supervisor, Global Inter-Cloud Technology Forum

15:15 – 15:45(DMTF)- Winston Bumpus, President, Distributed Management Task Force

15:45 – 16:15(OGF) - Craig Lee, President, Open Grid Forum

16:15 – 18:00 Interactive Discussion About Follow-on Activities

possible follow ons
Possible Follow-ons

Vendor information Web site including a FAQ for end-users planning Cloud deployments

Sessions in 2010 with vertical end-users (government, financial, healthcare)

Cloud industry trade association including vendors, system integrators, and standards groups

A "Cloud Roadmap for Interoperability, Portability, and Capabilities" document

Any other suggestions?

possible follow on cloud roadmap document
Possible Follow-on: CloudRoadmap Document
  • Document covering Interoperability, Portability, and Capabilities
  • Modeled after "NIST Framework and Roadmap for Smart Grid Interoperability Standards“ for electrical grid.
  • Other Inputs
    • ENISA Cloud Computing: Benefits, risks and recommendations for information security
    • NIST's Cloud Document and Presentation
    • The DMTF's Open Cloud Standards Incubator's new White Paper on "Interoperable Clouds“
    • The Cloud Use Cases Group White Paper
    • The Cloud Security Alliance's Security Guidance
    • The Open Cloud Computing Interface (OCCI) Specification
predictions for iaas
Predictions for IaaS
  • Core IaaS will become increasingly standardized and commoditized for horizontally scalable applications
    • There will still be diversity across multiple Cloud implementations (e.g. AWS and vCloud-based)
    • Cross-Cloud tools and middleware will be available to enable interoperability and portability across core IaaS
  • Key Issues include:
    • Reliability, security, SLAs, auditing
    • Integration with existing systems and data centers
    • Management and governance of applications
  • IaaS providers will increasingly add new utilities and PaaS capabilities as differentiators
current status of paas
Current Status of PaaS
  • PaaS (Technology under development)
    • Google AppEngine and Microsoft Azure are PaaS products integrating development and deployment
    • Major Cloud vendors are moving towards PaaS e.g.
      • Amazon moving up from IaaS by adding utilities and new packages
      • Salesforce.com moving down from SaaS by exposing internal interfaces to developers (Force.com)
    • Many smaller vendors are building PaaS development and deployment tools for Clouds
    • IaaS vendors will probably acquire or partner with PaaS suppliers e.g. VMware purchasing SpringSource
    • PaaS ecosystems will be a major arena of Cloud competition
paas modeling standards
PaaS Modeling Standards

Platform as a Services (PaaS) tools and frameworks are a critical technology for Cloud Computing

These tools support the development, deployment, and management of Cloud applications

Many vendors have PaaS products with few standards

To avoid lock-in, models must be created that are independent of specific products

These models must describe interactions, resources, and policies for applications and services to enable portability across Clouds

targets for modeling
Targets for Modeling

From: http://elastra.com/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-Virtual-Data-Center.pdf

predictions for paas
Predictions for PaaS
  • PaaS will become the battleground for determining the future of Cloud Computing
    • All the major players will provide Cloud platform capabilities
    • The goal will be to attract a critical mass of applications
    • Several dominant Cloud ecosystems will emerge
  • Key issues will include:
    • Selection of appropriate PaaS providers
    • Interoperability and portability across PaaS Clouds
    • Maintaining control of application lifecycle (e.g. evolution)
  • Future Differentiators for PaaS will be integration with applications utilizing mobile devices and sensors.
u s research projects
U.S. Research Projects
  • IBM, Google and National Science Foundation CLuE Project http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/us/google/index.shtmlhttp://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=114686
  • Open Cloud Consortiumhttp://opencloudconsortium.org
  • FutureGrid http://futuregrid.org/
  • DOE Magellan http://www.er.doe.gov/News_Information/News_Room/2009/Oct%2014_ComplexQuestions.html
international research projects
International Research Projects
  • Reservoir and Open Nebula http://www.reservoir-fp7.eu http://www.opennebula.org/
  • Nimbus http://workspace.globus.org/
  • Yahoo, Intel, and HP Open Cirrus Testbed http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/newsroom/press/2008/080729xa.html


  • NEON – Northern Europe Cloud Initiative http://www.pdc.kth.se/Members/edlund/2009.10.13-NEON-Banff-AakeEdlund.pdf