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ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION IN SOUTH EAST EUROPE. Jože Mencinger, Franjo Štiblar ERASMUS, University of Ljubljana; 2010 MIRREES, University of Bologna, Forli 2010. 1. I NTRODUCTION. 1. 1 . Basic Macroeconomic Concepts 1. 1 .1. GDP: components, measurement problems, comparisons among countries
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ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION IN SOUTH EAST EUROPE Jože Mencinger, Franjo Štiblar ERASMUS, University of Ljubljana; 2010 MIRREES, University of Bologna, Forli 2010
1. INTRODUCTION • 1.1. Basic Macroeconomic Concepts • 1.1.1. GDP: components, measurement problems, comparisons among countries • 1.1.2. Economic growth • 1.1.3. Internal and external stability • 1.1.4. Economic Performance and Social Cohesion • 1.2. Determinants of economic system – ownership and macro-decision making • 1.3. Specific features and phases of economic, social, and political developments in SEE (Western Balkans) before 1990
2. TRANSITION • 2.1. Privatization • - complexities of privatization • - privatization models • - outcomes of privatization • 2.2. Macroeconomic stabilization • - assumptions and Washington agreement • - transformational depression • 2.3. Microeconomic restructuring • 2.4. A Case: Slovenia; Could SEE countries follow Slovenian experiences?
3. WHERE TO AFTER TRANSITION – EU • 3.1. European Economic Integration • 3.1.1. Institutional features and functioning • 3.1.2. Enlargement towards SEE • 3.2. Expectations and illusions ? • 3.2.1. Fiscal Flows between EU and national budgets • 3.2.2. Flows of capital and flows of labor
4. SOUTH EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES • 4.1. Historical background • 4.2. Theoretical background • 4.2.1. National Identities • 4.2.2. Theory of conflict solutions and application to Western Balkans • 4.2.3. Partition of countries as a solution • 4.3. The role of foreign stakeholders • 4.3.1. SEE – EU and CEE • 4.3.2. SEE – US • 4.3.3 SEE - international institutions
5. CURRENT SITUATION IN SEE • 5.1. Political situation • 5.2. Economic situation • 5.2.1. Current economic situation and forecasts • 5.2.2. Macro economic policies • 5.2.3. Trade as a major instrument of cooperation • 5.2.4. Mezzo and micro economic situation and policies, business environment • 5.2.4.1. Financial sector (banking, insurance, capital markets) • 5.2.4.2. Real sector (manufacturing, transportation, construction, trade and tourism) • 5.2.4.3. External financial flows to the region: aid, loans, FDIs • 5.3. Demographic trends, social stability and social cohesion
6. SOLUTIONS • 6.1. Visions and principles • 6.2. Recommendations: actions, activities, institutions
EXAM The exam will be in the form of two essays: • A short description of the major characteristics of one of the main transition features (privatization, macroeconomic stabilization, institutional changes) in a country of CEE - up to 10 pages. It should include basic tools and outcomes. Deadline: January 1, 2011 to joze.mencinger@pf.uni-lj.si • An essay on your personal views on ideas how to help and stabilize the region. Choose one country in the Balkan region, update situation in 2010, reccomend action, Max: 15 pages. Deadline: January 10, 2011 to franjo.stiblar@eipf.si * *Each student has to prepare a paper in advance and present it during class hours. Paper has to cover a chapter, atleast 30 pages in book »The Balkan Problem and Its Solutions«. The grade (the first half is given by professor Mencinger) depends on quality of the paper (new data, new proposals for solution), quality of presentation in class; involvement in discussion during classes ( the book »The Balkan problem and Its Solutions« should be read in advance).
