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A Comprehensive Goal-Attainment Performance Analytics Modeling Application Acumen4Xcelsius a combination of Xcelsius by Business Objects/SAP and Acumen by Three D Graphics September 2009 Acumen4Xcelsius

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acumen4xcelsius

A Comprehensive Goal-Attainment Performance Analytics Modeling Application

Acumen4Xcelsius

a combination of Xcelsius by Business Objects/SAP and Acumen by Three D Graphics

September 2009

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

acumen4xcelsius2
Acumen4Xcelsius

Acumen4Xcelsius is a comprehensive goal-attainment performance analytics modeling application.

It provides a "bottom-up" what-if component ("what do the Sales have to be to achieve a specified Profit goal, given the reasonable limitations upon the contributing metrics")

Upon the event of breaching such limitations, the User is offered a range of "goal attainment" options

Also featured are "proportional distribution" of a body of contributing metrics, a powerful proprietary mathematical engine with non-linear capability, precise determination of solution values upon command, multifaceted "scenario compare" and a future goal-centric graphic-displayed trend analysis coupled with multi-year rolling forecasts

SPECIAL NOTE: Although Acumen4Xcelsius is an add-on to Xcelsius, it does not require prior knowledge or experience with or incorporation of the Three D Graphics Acumen desk top application

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Acumen4Xcelsius

Acumen4Xcelsius consists of three new Xcelsius add-on components:

Bottom-Up Slider Component

Scenario Compare Component

Performance Trend Component (FUTURE)

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Acumen4Xcelsius

The Acumen4Xcelsius Bottom-Up component is a horizontal slider with bottom-up capabilities. That is, it allows the User to adjust the value of a calculated, non-root variable to achieve a goal and determine how that goal affects other variables in its food chain. Two features are very important to this bottom-up capability:

Variables must be assigned realistic minimum/maximum values. Acumen4Xcelsius monitors these restrictions and prevents the User from pursuing goals outside the restricted range.

Relaxed Variables are used to identify variables that can change in order to achieve a goal. For example to achieve a ten million dollar profit, the User might want to let unit price, units sold, and cost of sales be modified to see what it would take to achieve the goal. Acumen4Xcelsius can proportionally allocate to all variables in a food chain or selectively allocate to only the variables the User chooses

Acumen4Xcelsius also includes a Goal AttainmentOptions dialog that shows the User the potential problems associated with achieving a goal. When explorations cause values to exceed min/max, the User can retain the original goal and accept the limitation or expand limitations to achieve a higher goal.

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Acumen4Xcelsius

Features of the Acumen4Xcelsius Bottom-Up Slider Component include:

When precision is important, Acumen4Xcelsius lets the user set sliders for calculated and root variables to an exact value.

A Goal Attainment Optionsdialogprovides options when a goal value cannot be achieved. Example:

Proportionally allocate to all or selected variables in a food chain.

Supports both linear and non-linear bottom-up Goal Attainment for Best Solution.

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Acumen4Xcelsius

The Acumen4Xcelsius Scenario Compare component can be used to show the difference between original history values and values produced by the Bottom-Up Slider component. The difference is shown as a percentage and as absolute values. Example:

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

the data
The Data

The data being used for this demonstration is from the fictitious Century Corporation. The company manufacturers and sells electronic equipment. Century Corp. maintains its financial data in Excel. Excel is also the input point and depositary of the formulas acted upon by the Acumen mathematical engine resident in a server which can be dedicated, in whole or in part, for the purpose of the Application.

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

the issues
The Issues

Acumen4Xcelsius is a modeling tool that enhances the ability of an institution to examine itself.

The starting point in any model is to establish the significant issues that may be resolved by a "what-if" goal-centric determination.

In the current example, the Century Corp. management is concerned with the "bottom line" under certain typical operating circumstances.

In the process of such resolve, the Company learns that very often there are no simple answers.

Rather, the management (the "User") at every level may be forced to consider a path selected from a number of options.

An important, and perhaps exclusive feature, of Acumen4Xcelsius is the usefulness and ease of use in determining such selection.

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

the issues9
The Issues

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

issue 1 bottom up precision counts
ISSUE 1 – Bottom-Up: Precision Counts!

Last year, Stereo sales of  15,910 Units contributed to a Total Profit of $5,544,456.

The Goal: Exactly how many Stereo Units must be sold to achieve a Net Profit After Taxes of $6,098,091?

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

issue 1 bottom up precision counts11
ISSUE 1 – Bottom-Up: Precision Counts!

1) Click this button to show the Edit Properties List

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 1 – Bottom-Up: Precision Counts!

2) CheckStereoUnitsSold

5)ClickUpdate

3) OK

4) Enter 6098091 in the Net Profit After Taxes edit box.

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

issue 1 bottom up precision counts13
ISSUE 1 – Bottom-Up: Precision Counts!

Century Corp will need to sell 24,701 Stereo Units to increase profit by 10%. Also note the increase in other related constituent variables.

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

issue 2 bottom up goal attainment options
ISSUE 2 – Bottom-Up: Goal Attainment Options

Due to a very high Cost of Sales, Computer Gross Margin is negative (-24%). What are the options to achieve a break even in the Computer business? Increase the selling price or decrease the unit cost, or both, or accept the necessity of the least reasonable expectation of loss?

The Goal: What must the Computer Unit Price be increased to in order to achieve a Gross Margin of 0%?

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

issue 2 bottom up goal attainment options15
ISSUE 2 – Bottom-Up: Goal Attainment Options

1) Click this button to show the Edit Properties list

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

issue 2 bottom up goal attainment options16
ISSUE 2 – Bottom-Up: Goal Attainment Options

2) CheckComputerUnitPrice

3) OK

4) Drag the Computer Gross Margin slider to a higher value until the Goal AttainmentOptionsdialog appears

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

issue 2 bottom up goal attainment options17
ISSUE 2 – Bottom-Up: Goal Attainment Options

4) Option 1: Click the OK button to accept the highest Computer Gross Margin that can be achieved with the limit of 2,300 on Computer Unit Price

NOTE: Options 2 & 3 are shown in Issues 3 and 4.

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 2 – Bottom-Up: Goal Attainment Options

5)ClickUpdate

Goal Option 1: Accept the best Computer Gross Margin (-8%) that can be achieved with the maximum limit of 2,300 on Computer Unit Price

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 3 – Bottom-Up: Proportionate Allocation

In order to achieve a particular NPAT goal, there must be a reduction in Operating Expenses. Very often this is accomplished by an across the board percentage reduction - sometimes with unrealistic consequences.

The Goal: By what percent must each Operating Expense Item be proportionally reduced to achieve a NPAT of $7,000,000?

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 3 – Bottom-Up: Proportionate Allocation

1) Click this button to show the Edit Properties list

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 3 – Bottom-Up: Proportionate Allocation

2)Relax PercentChange

5)ClickUpdate

3)ClickOK

4)Dragthe sliderto 7,000,000

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 3 – Bottom-Up: Proportionate Allocation

All Operating Expenses have been proportionally reduced by the percentage shown in the Percent Change gauge and the Scenario Compare components. Can Profit be increased to $8M?

6) Drag the Net Profit After Taxes slider to a higher value until the Goal AttainmentOptions dialog appears

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 3 – Bottom-Up: Proportionate Allocation

7) Option 2: Click the second radio button to extend the range of R&Dand achieve the $8M goal. The minimum limit on R&D will be extended to about 3.3M.

8) Click OK

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 3 – Bottom-Up: Proportionate Allocation

NewGoalValueAchieved

ExtendedR&DLimit

Goal Option 2: Achieve original Net Profit After Taxes goal of 8,000,000 by extending the limit of Research & Development

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 4 – Bottom-Up: Non-Linear Formula

Century Corp. utilizes certain manufacturing facilities that have an estimated life of 10 years, +/-. The Company expects to set aside a certain portion of its profit each year and invest it in an interest-bearing account.

The Goal: What must the Annual Payment be to achieve a Sinking Fund of $100,000?

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 4 – Bottom-Up: Non-Linear Formula

1) Click this button to show the Edit Properties list

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 4 – Bottom-Up: Non-Linear Formula

2)CheckAnnualPayment

3)Click OK

4)Drag the Replacement Amount slider to a higher value until the Goal AttainmentOptions dialog appears

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

slide28

ISSUE 4 – Bottom-Up: Non-Linear Formula

5) Option 3: Click the third option: “Define new Replacement Amount Goal…”

6) Enter 95000 in the Replacement Amount edit box to calculate the Annual Payment needed to reach a higher value that is still short of the goal.

7) Click OK.

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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ISSUE 4 – Bottom-Up: Non-Linear Formula

Goal Option 3: Define new Replacement Amount goal and new limit for Annual Payment

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Future Upsell

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Future Expansion & Upsell

There are features in the Acumen desktop that have not yet been incorporated into Acumen4xcelsius.

One of the most important is a growth factor goal-centric, graphic-displayed trend analysis, multi-year rolling forecast. 

Although it is similar in many respects to other rolling forecasts based upon prior trends, it differs -- perhaps exclusively, in its ability to determine the trend ("growth factor") of each root variable necessary to achieve a specific goal at the end of a selected period, given the reasonable limitations in any period or group of periods.

For purposes of a current presentation, a selection of slides from an extended PowerPoint follow from the description of the Issue.

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

slide32

ISSUE 5 – Performance Trend

Show the expected performance trend of Net Profit After Taxes based on the previous five years.

The Goal: Looking forward five years, in comparison to the past five years, determine a "doable" performance trend of each root variable necessary to achieve an acceptable Net Profit After Taxes. Given the trends for the past five years, should they continue looking forward?

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Future Expansion & Upsell

The User can elect, with respect to each individually or all collectively of the Planning periods, to:

Continue the Historic trendor

Modify the Historic trendor

Initiate a new trendor

Ignore the concept of a trend of any nature insofar as Planning is concerned.In such event, the User may elect to either employ the latest of the Historic Periods as the first and succeeding values of the Planning Periods or manually enter the expected root values for each of the Planning Periods.

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

slide34

Future Expansion & Upsell

A further example of the ACUMEN ease of Planning is the following query:In finalizing the 5-year plan, the commanding issue may be the Profit at the end of the fifth year.Given that value as a goal, what must the trend or trends be for the applicable variables starting at the beginning of the first year?And given the Range constraints with respect to these variables, what is the best Profit that can be anticipated?

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Future Expansion & Upsell

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Future Expansion & Upsell

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Future Expansion & Upsell

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Future Expansion & Upsell

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Future Expansion & Upsell

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Future Expansion & Upsell

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics

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Future Expansion & Upsell

Performance Analytics from Three D Graphics