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3G Definition of UMTS UMTS : Universal Mobile Telecommunications System Third generation of mobile telephone (revolutionary next step after analogue and digital wireless technologies, with an expected impact similar to the internet)

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slide2

Definition of UMTS

  • UMTS : Universal Mobile Telecommunications System
    • Third generation of mobile telephone (revolutionary next step after analogue and digital wireless technologies, with an expected impact similar to the internet)
    • Will provide broader band transmission (up to 2Mbps), thus playing a major role in realising the convergence of telecoms, IT and broadcasting domains
      • High data transmission for fast mobile connection to Internet / Intranet applications, regardless of location
      • Electronic multimedia
      • Real-time full motion video transmission
      • Virtual office environment (usage of voice/data/video services at the same time)
      • Integrated voice, data (and video) handsets
    • Will also offer the significant advantage of using bandwidth on demand (higher efficiency)
    • Although essentially an European Standard, UMTS will be designed to allow roaming and interworking with other networks of IMT-2000 (VHE-Virtual Home Environment), as well as with existing GSM networks
    • Potentially a technology for providing Wireless Local Loop services
slide3

Technology evolution

    • 2002 : commercial launch?
    • UMTS will provide broader band (as compared to GPRS), but it is not clear yet if at launch or later, and how cost-competitive UMTS will be vis-à-vis GSM/GPRS
    • Network planning expected to be complex due to CDMA characteristics
  • Breadth of applications and size of demand
    • IP based applications perceived as the first to take-off.
    • Unclear whether UMTS will be attractive only for selected, sophisticated customers or will reach a mass penetration
  • Pricing system
    • How to migrate from a minute-based to a bit-based system
  • Regulation
    • It will influence competition and economics, but no regulatory standards
  • Operator economics
    • Very likely, network economics will make reaching a national coverage with UMTS difficult
    • Even though UMTS is apparently adapt for Wireless Local Loop solutions, there are no indications of its cost-competitiveness against alternative technologies
    • The evolution toward content-based applications could significantly change the industry value system and the sharing of the revenues
slide4

Next generation wireless technologies, are coming…

TD Wireless Technologies Road Map Evolution

...

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Circuit

GSM Ph2

HSCSD1

HSCSD2

EDGE

9.6 Kbps

28.8 Kbps(1x3 9.6Kbps)

57.6 Kbps(1x4 14.4Kbps)

144 Kbps

Switching Technology

SMS

384 Kbps

EDGE

Packet

GPRS

UMTS1

UMTS2

115 Kbps

2 Mbps

384 Kbps

144 Kbps

384 Kbps

144 Kbps

Urban areas, low mobility

High mobility, suburban areas

Rural areas

  • Some industry representatives are betting that data revenues will reach 50% of mobile operators’ revenues by 2005
slide5

A mix of applications not distinct from GPRS could make UMTS useless to end-customers

Categories of UMTS applications

Speed(Kbit / Sec)

Switching

Services Categories

Bit Flow

Examples of Applications

Voice

16

Circuit

Symmetric

  • Voice calls
  • Audio on Demand

Simple Messaging

14.4

Packet

Symmetric

  • Low speed alarm / telemetry
  • Virtual Banking
  • SMS

Switched Low Speed Data

64

Circuit / Packet

Symmetric

  • Interpersonal messaging
  • Traffic telematics

Increasing Customer Sophistication

  • Remote surveillance / diagnostic
  • Web browsing
  • On-line newspapers
  • Games on demand
  • File transfer (DB access)

Medium Speed Multimedia

384

Packet

Asymmetric

  • Remote surveillance / diagnostic
  • On-line shopping
  • Photo journalism
  • Games on demand
  • Narrow cast TV

2.000

Packet

Asymmetric

High Speed Multimedia

High Interactive Multimedia

144

Circuit

Symmetric

  • Video conferencing
  • Collaborative working

Source: Monitor Analysis

  • What will convince customers to migrate to UMTS?
    • higher speed for the same applications? At what price differential, if any?
    • Or a wider set of applications, most of them requiring higher speed? But which applications?
    • Or a different approach to customization of contents/applications to any single user’s needs?
  • How important will be the role of the operator in nurturing the developers of contents and applications?
slide6

Mistakes in identifying and targeting the segments of early adopters with the highest consumption will be fatal for UMTS operators

  • “Today’s users of corporate intranets and Internet are likely to be early customers for mobile multimedia as delivered by UMTS”

UMTS Forum

  • “A segment of “young” pioneers is likely. They have been brought up with Internet and multimedia, and they will be happy to have them on their cellular phone”

Ericsson

CustomerSegments

Definition

Most UsedApplications

Exampleof Applications

Business Users

  • Subscribers to a Wide Area mobile network whose bill is paid by their employer
  • Voice
  • High interactive multimedia
  • High speed data
  • Virtual office on one line
  • Video-telephony
  • Internet / Intranet fast access

Consumers Users

  • Subscribers to a Wide Area mobile network who pay the bill themselves
  • Voice
  • Low speed data
  • Banking / E-Commerce

Cordless Multimedia SystemUsers

  • Business/Residential Users who generate mobile traffic on a local-area base station (pico-cell)
  • Voice
  • High interactive multimedia
  • Medium / high speed data
  • Collaborative working inside offices
  • Users in home base stations / in pico-cell in shopping malls

Machine to Machine

  • Usage which does not involve people setting up the transmission (although they may cause it)
  • Medium / high speed data upload
  • Credit card swipe terminals
  • Remote cameras
  • Telemetry

Source: Quotient Communications.

  • Understanding the economics of different segments will be a critical step
slide7

Successful development of UMTS will require a paradigm shift: existing competencies will not be sufficient

  • Under-estimating the implications of a more complex value system is risky
    • Players from other industries conquer significant leadership positions on the value system and reduce the piece of the cake for telecom operators
    • Unfocused or untimely alliance/partnership strategy reduce distinctiveness of applications
    • New operators working with a content-based paradigm aggressively cut transport price
    • The replication of the Internet business model zeroes value of content (and therefore the “intermediation” fee for the pure network operator)

Content

Creation

Application Servers

Network

Transport

SW/HWInterface

End-UserManagement

  • UMTS Operator
  • Nokia, Ericsson,...
  • UMTS Operator

Voice/Video-conference

Inter-personal Messaging

  • UMTS Messaging Center (managed by UMTS operator)
  • UMTS Operator
  • Nokia, Ericsson,...
  • UMTS Operator
  • Traffic information aggregator (WWW, Operator server,…)
  • UMTS Operator
  • Nokia, Ericsson,...
  • Blankpunkt (Car Screen Terminal)
  • UMTS Operator
  • Car Screen Producer
  • Content Aggregator
  • Highways
  • Police

Traffic Telematics

  • Banks / credit cards companies
  • Portals (AOL)
  • WWW sites (manufacturers, shopping malls,…)
  • UMTS Operator
  • Nokia, Ericsson,...
  • Smart Card Producers/ Distributors
  • UMTS Operator
  • Banks / Credit Cards
  • Portals / WWW site companies
  • Smart Card Distributors
  • Goods manufacturers

On-line Shopping

slide8

Anyway, it is still unclear if end customers will require UMTS performance at the moment of its commercial launch

2005 (at latest)

1997-98

1999

2000

2001

2002

UMTS Phase I

(Basic deployment)

UMTS Phase I

(Full commercial)

Technology

Basic 2G

HSCSD

USSD

GPRS

EDGE*

Enhance Data Rates over GSM Evolution (circuit and packet switched)

Circuit Switched Data + Messaging

Circuit Switched Data

Interactive Messaging

Packet Switched Data (Internet-like IP services)

Packet Switched Data

HSCSD

Packet Switched Data

HSCSD

Features

  • Rural outdoor: 144-384
  • Urban/suburban (outdoor): 384-512
  • Indoor/low range outdoor: 2000

From X hundred

( GSM phase 2+)to 2Mbps depending on backbone network technology

64

Speed (Kbits/s)

9.6

57.6 (4x14.4)

100-150

384

64

*Likely to be introduced mainly by operators who will not have a UMTS license

  • The GSM Phase 2 technologies will represent a natural migration toward UMTS

“The existing operators will have to educate their customers to use 3rd Generation services, by progressively introducing more powerful GSM-based technologies”

Nokia

  • However, depending on the relative pricing and the distinctiveness of the new UMTS applications (allowing simultaneously multiple services provision, spectrum on demand, high degree of service flexibility, etc.) the same GSM technologies could delay UMTS adoption or not
  • The interests of the existing operators will significantly influence the rapidity of UMTS development
slide9

UMTS compared with the existing and future fixed/mobile technologies

2G

2.5G

3G

GSM

CDMAOne

PDC

DAMPS

GSM II+ (GPRS)

[2000]

IS-95 B

Rural Areas

Vehicular + Suburban

Pedestrian

UMTS (W-CDMA)

[2002-5]

CDMA 2000

IS-136 HS

EDGE

[2001-2]

Wireless LAN

Mobility

Indoor-Cordless

Fixed Wireless

ISDN

B-ISDN

Wireline

9.6 kbps

64 k

144 k

384 k

2 Mbps

Data Rate per User

(bits/second)

  • Not yet clear whether UMTS network will be really capable of providing 2 Mbps in 2002 or later
slide10

Higher Data Rates are Needed

video

clip

report

photo

UMTS

video

clip

GSM 2+

web

report

photo

video

clip

web

report

e-mail

photo

ISDN

video

clip

PSTN

web

report

e-mail

photo

video

clip

web

e-mail

photo

report

GSM Ph1

0

10 sec

1 min

10 min

1 hour

Transmission Time

slide11

Frequency Plans for 3rd Generation

UMTS

TDD

UMTS

TDD

DECT

UMTS

DCS 1800

UMTS

EUROPE

IMT-2000

TDD

IMT-2000

IMT-2000

PHS

JAPAN

PCS

unlicensed

PCS

PCS

USA

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

Frequency band in MHz

  • Harmonized frequency plans in Europe and Japan according to ITU decision.
  • US plan is incompatible because of 2nd generation frequency allocations.
  • Mixing the two frequency plans would mean more guardbands and lower
  • spectral efficiency.
slide12

However, the definitive setting of standards is still far to be achieved: in Europe Commercial Services should not start before 2002

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Japan

(ARIB/TTC)

Europe

(ETSI)

ITU - IMT2000

Selection of Radio Technology

Freezing of Network Standards

Freezing of Radio

Standards

Commercial Service

  • NTT DoCoMo (in Japan) will be the first to introduce UMTS in March 2001
    • Pushed by lack of a global standard for mobile voice services and spectrum scarcity on its existing systems
    • Will take the “risk” of starting its network deployment and testing without complete specification of the ETSI standards
    • Already successfully tested 2 Mbps transmission in W-CDMA field trials in Oct. ‘96
slide13

Docomo has announced its UMTS launch (spring 2001)

  • Market
    • Initially a very focused, data/video-driven customer base (likely to be business)
      • 2.5 million customers (5% of existing base at 2001)
    • Eventually a mass market
      • 360 million customers, including vehicles, PDAs, and pets!
  • Services
    • Mainly a development of existing services (IP, GPS positioning)
    • Video progressively taking the lead
  • NetworkImplementation
    • Focused initially to highly populated, business oriented cities (Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka)
    • Able to provide high speed data and video since the start (but 2 Mbps only after 2003)
    • Around $ 850 Mn invested by 2001
    • Multi-mode (PHS-PDC-UMTS) terminals for at least 10 years (time required to reach national coverage with UMTS)
  • KeySuccessElements
    • User-friendly, multipurpose inexpensive terminals
    • Appeal of content