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“NewSpace” The Coming Revolution in Commercial Human Spaceflight. Bigelow Aerospace “Genesis-1” in orbit, July 2006. Manned Orbital. Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010?] Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014] Soyuz (Russia) Shenzhou (China). Space Habitat.

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“NewSpace”

The Coming Revolution in Commercial Human Spaceflight

Bigelow Aerospace “Genesis-1”in orbit, July 2006


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Manned Orbital

Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010?]Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014]Soyuz (Russia)Shenzhou (China)

Space Habitat

International Space Station [to 2016?]

Deep Space

Ares 1/Ares 5/Orion Block 2 (USA) [from 2018-2020?]

- “Apollo on Steroids”


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Manned Suborbital

Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo (USA/UK) Armadillo Aerospace VDR (USA)RpK Rocketplane XP (USA) Starchaser Thunderstar (UK)

Blue Origin New Shephard (USA) ARCA Stabilo (Romania)Prodea Explorer (Russia/USA) CANDSPACE Proteus (S.Korea)Planetspace Canadian Arrow (Canada/USA)

Manned Orbital

Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010?] Rocketplane Kistler K-1 OV (USA)Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014] PlanetSpace Silver Dart (Canada/USA)Soyuz (Russia) SpaceX Dragon (USA)Shenzhou (China)

Space Habitat

International Space Station [to 2016?]Bigelow Aerospace Sundancer (USA)Bigelow Aerospace BA-330 (USA)

Deep Space

Ares1/Ares 5/Orion Block 2 (USA) [from 2018-2020?]

CSI Lunar Express (Russia/USA)

Deep Space Expedition Alpha (Russia/USA)

SpaceX Lunar Dragon? (USA)


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OldSpace

  • Major military contractors

  • Government “cost-plus” contracts($500 hammers)

  • Large project teams(~20,000 people in United Space Alliance)

  • Politicised funding (“porkbarrel”)


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NewSpace

  • Small entrepreneurial companies(e.g. Masten Space Systems – 5 full-time employees)

  • Fixed-price commercial contracts

  • Rapid development cycle(“Build a lot, fly a lot”)

  • Off-the-shelf technology


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History of Space Commerce

  • 1970's: communication satellites

  • 1980's: earth resources satellites, space manufacturing (ISF)

  • 1990's: navigation (GPS), satellite internet (Iridium, Globalstar, Teledesic)

  • 2000's: space tourism? (Ansari X-Prize)

  • 2010's: commercial space stations? (America's Space Prize)


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Virgin Galactic

  • Carrier aircraft (White Knight 2) and suborbital rocketplane (SpaceShipTwo)

  • Designed and built by Burt Rutan, funded by Richard Branson

  • $250M investment

    • 5 spacecraft

    • 2 carrier aircraft

    • $100M for new spaceport at Upham, New Mexico


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Virgin Galactic

  • 140km max altitude, ~5min of microgravity. $200,000 per seat

  • ~200 customers now, est. 500 by first commercial flight

  • WK2 rollout Farnborough 2007. Spacecraft test flights 2008-2009

  • British flight test crew

  • Commercial service 2009






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Rocketplane XP

  • Rebuilt LearJet 25, conversion to suborbital spaceplane

  • Takeoff under jet power, ignites rocket at altitude

  • Operating from Oklahoma Spaceport (former Strategic Air Command base).

  • Pilot + 3 passengers

  • Space tourism, nanosat launch

  • First test flight 2008?




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Blue Origin

  • Funded by Jeff Bezos (Amazon.com)

  • Own private spaceport in Cuthbertson County, TX

  • VTVL modular design (“New Shepard”)

  • Nov 2006: First prototype launch successful

  • Test flights every 1-2 weeks

  • Manned flights to 100km by 2010


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Stabilo (Romania)


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Armadillo Aerospace

  • Founded by John Carmack (creator of Doom, Quake)

  • 8 people working part-time, total spend ~$2.5M

  • VTVL unmanned tech demos

  • 2004:successful hop test

  • 2004:vehicle crash

  • Oct 2006: entered NASA Lunar Lander Challenge ($1.3M prizes)



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COTS

  • NASA programme “Commercial Orbital Transportation Services” (also stands for “Commercial Off-The-Shelf”)

  • Develop commercial ISS resupply (buy tickets, don't build rockets)

  • $500M between two companies for cargo transport by 2010, with option for crew transport

  • Fixed-price contract, dependent on technical milestones

  • August 2006: Award split between two companies, SpaceX and Rocketplane Kistler


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SpaceX

  • `Founded by Elon Musk (Paypal.com)

  • Aims to provide launches 3-5x cheaper than US competition

  • March 2006: Falcon-1 test launch failed, engine fire and shutdown

  • Q1 2007: Second Falcon-1 test launch

  • Q1 2007: Test firing Falcon-9 1st stage

  • Dragon manned capsule under development. First Dragon demo fight 2008, first manned flight 2010?



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SpaceX Dragon

Launch configuration

Dragon atop SpaceXFalcon-9 launch vehicle

On-orbit configuration


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  • Rocketplane-Kistler

  • K-1: TSTO, fully reusable, recovery via parachutes & airbags

  • Launch from Woomera, Australia

  • Fleet of 5, launch every 2 weeks

  • Cost: $21M per launch

  • $207M under COTS programme

  • Prototype 75% hardware complete now

  • First launch 2009-2010.


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Bigelow Aerospace

  • Bob Bigelow, US hotel entrepreneur

  • $500M of own money for inflatable manned space station modules (TransHab, ex-NASA program)

  • 1/3-scale test modules- Genesis-I: in orbit- Genesis-II: launch Q1 2007

  • Sundancer: man-capable module 2009

  • BA-330: full-scale permanently manned station 2011?

  • Working with Lockheed-Martin on crew transport

  • Orbital tourism, commercial research, space manufacturing

Genesis-I in orbit


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Why should we care?

  • It's cool

  • It's British!

  • Cheaper space operations = less pressure on space science budgets

  • Cheap/free and frequent flight opportunities for science payloads

  • Building commercial space infrastructure makes doing anything in space easier, including science.

The UK has a head start in this industry, but it could easily be lost due to governmental, institutional and public indifference.