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“NewSpace” The Coming Revolution in Commercial Human Spaceflight

“NewSpace” The Coming Revolution in Commercial Human Spaceflight. Bigelow Aerospace “Genesis-1” in orbit, July 2006. Manned Orbital. Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010?] Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014] Soyuz (Russia) Shenzhou (China). Space Habitat.

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“NewSpace” The Coming Revolution in Commercial Human Spaceflight

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  1. “NewSpace” The Coming Revolution in Commercial Human Spaceflight Bigelow Aerospace “Genesis-1”in orbit, July 2006

  2. Manned Orbital Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010?]Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014]Soyuz (Russia)Shenzhou (China) Space Habitat International Space Station [to 2016?] Deep Space Ares 1/Ares 5/Orion Block 2 (USA) [from 2018-2020?] - “Apollo on Steroids”

  3. Manned Suborbital Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo (USA/UK) Armadillo Aerospace VDR (USA)RpK Rocketplane XP (USA) Starchaser Thunderstar (UK) Blue Origin New Shephard (USA) ARCA Stabilo (Romania)Prodea Explorer (Russia/USA) CANDSPACE Proteus (S.Korea)Planetspace Canadian Arrow (Canada/USA) Manned Orbital Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010?] Rocketplane Kistler K-1 OV (USA)Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014] PlanetSpace Silver Dart (Canada/USA)Soyuz (Russia) SpaceX Dragon (USA)Shenzhou (China) Space Habitat International Space Station [to 2016?]Bigelow Aerospace Sundancer (USA)Bigelow Aerospace BA-330 (USA) Deep Space Ares1/Ares 5/Orion Block 2 (USA) [from 2018-2020?] CSI Lunar Express (Russia/USA) Deep Space Expedition Alpha (Russia/USA) SpaceX Lunar Dragon? (USA)

  4. OldSpace • Major military contractors • Government “cost-plus” contracts($500 hammers) • Large project teams(~20,000 people in United Space Alliance) • Politicised funding (“porkbarrel”)

  5. NewSpace • Small entrepreneurial companies(e.g. Masten Space Systems – 5 full-time employees) • Fixed-price commercial contracts • Rapid development cycle(“Build a lot, fly a lot”) • Off-the-shelf technology

  6. History of Space Commerce • 1970's: communication satellites • 1980's: earth resources satellites, space manufacturing (ISF) • 1990's: navigation (GPS), satellite internet (Iridium, Globalstar, Teledesic) • 2000's: space tourism? (Ansari X-Prize) • 2010's: commercial space stations? (America's Space Prize)

  7. Virgin Galactic • Carrier aircraft (White Knight 2) and suborbital rocketplane (SpaceShipTwo) • Designed and built by Burt Rutan, funded by Richard Branson • $250M investment • 5 spacecraft • 2 carrier aircraft • $100M for new spaceport at Upham, New Mexico

  8. Virgin Galactic • 140km max altitude, ~5min of microgravity. $200,000 per seat • ~200 customers now, est. 500 by first commercial flight • WK2 rollout Farnborough 2007. Spacecraft test flights 2008-2009 • British flight test crew • Commercial service 2009

  9. Virgin Galactic

  10. Virgin Galactic

  11. Virgin Galactic

  12. Virgin Galactic

  13. Rocketplane XP • Rebuilt LearJet 25, conversion to suborbital spaceplane • Takeoff under jet power, ignites rocket at altitude • Operating from Oklahoma Spaceport (former Strategic Air Command base). • Pilot + 3 passengers • Space tourism, nanosat launch • First test flight 2008?

  14. Rocketplane XP

  15. Rocketplane XP

  16. Blue Origin • Funded by Jeff Bezos (Amazon.com) • Own private spaceport in Cuthbertson County, TX • VTVL modular design (“New Shepard”) • Nov 2006: First prototype launch successful • Test flights every 1-2 weeks • Manned flights to 100km by 2010

  17. Stabilo (Romania)

  18. Armadillo Aerospace • Founded by John Carmack (creator of Doom, Quake) • 8 people working part-time, total spend ~$2.5M • VTVL unmanned tech demos • 2004:successful hop test • 2004:vehicle crash • Oct 2006: entered NASA Lunar Lander Challenge ($1.3M prizes)

  19. Armadillo Aerospace

  20. COTS • NASA programme “Commercial Orbital Transportation Services” (also stands for “Commercial Off-The-Shelf”) • Develop commercial ISS resupply (buy tickets, don't build rockets) • $500M between two companies for cargo transport by 2010, with option for crew transport • Fixed-price contract, dependent on technical milestones • August 2006: Award split between two companies, SpaceX and Rocketplane Kistler

  21. SpaceX • `Founded by Elon Musk (Paypal.com) • Aims to provide launches 3-5x cheaper than US competition • March 2006: Falcon-1 test launch failed, engine fire and shutdown • Q1 2007: Second Falcon-1 test launch • Q1 2007: Test firing Falcon-9 1st stage • Dragon manned capsule under development. First Dragon demo fight 2008, first manned flight 2010?

  22. SpaceX

  23. SpaceX Dragon Launch configuration Dragon atop SpaceXFalcon-9 launch vehicle On-orbit configuration

  24. Rocketplane-Kistler • K-1: TSTO, fully reusable, recovery via parachutes & airbags • Launch from Woomera, Australia • Fleet of 5, launch every 2 weeks • Cost: $21M per launch • $207M under COTS programme • Prototype 75% hardware complete now • First launch 2009-2010.

  25. Bigelow Aerospace • Bob Bigelow, US hotel entrepreneur • $500M of own money for inflatable manned space station modules (TransHab, ex-NASA program) • 1/3-scale test modules- Genesis-I: in orbit- Genesis-II: launch Q1 2007 • Sundancer: man-capable module 2009 • BA-330: full-scale permanently manned station 2011? • Working with Lockheed-Martin on crew transport • Orbital tourism, commercial research, space manufacturing Genesis-I in orbit

  26. Why should we care? • It's cool • It's British! • Cheaper space operations = less pressure on space science budgets • Cheap/free and frequent flight opportunities for science payloads • Building commercial space infrastructure makes doing anything in space easier, including science. The UK has a head start in this industry, but it could easily be lost due to governmental, institutional and public indifference.

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