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A Vision for Air Force Science & Technology During 2010-2030

Technology Horizons:. A Vision for Air Force Science & Technology During 2010-2030. Dr. Werner J.A. Dahm Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force Air Force Pentagon (4E130) Washington, D.C. 26 August 2010. 26 August 2010. AFA Technology Symposium 2010. Cleared for Public Release.

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A Vision for Air Force Science & Technology During 2010-2030

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  1. Technology Horizons: A Vision for Air Force Science & Technology During 2010-2030 Dr. Werner J.A. Dahm Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force Air Force Pentagon (4E130) Washington, D.C. 26 August 2010 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  2. The Air Force is Critically Dependent on Science & Technology Advances Stealth / LO Powered flight Long-endurance ISR Global positioning Supersonic flow Communications Computer simulations Precision strike High-power lasers Gas turbine engine Night attack ICBMs Directed energy Aerial refueling Hypersonics High-speed flight Space launch Space ISR Blended wing-body Unmanned systems Rocket flight Cyber operations Long-range radar 5th-gen fighters 2

  3. The Path from Science and Technology to New Air Force Capabilities Technology Readiness Level (TRL): Definitions TRL 1: Basic principles observed and reported TRL 2: Technology concept and/or application formulated TRL 3: Analytical or experimental proof of concept TRL 4: Component validation in laboratory environment TRL 5: Component validation in relevant environment TRL 6: System/subsystem demonstration in relevant environment TRL 7: System prototype demonstration in an operational environment TRL 8: Actual system completed and qualified through test and demo TRL 9: Actual system proven through successful mission operations Acquisition Research & Development Materiel Development Decision (MDD) Milestone A Milestone B Milestone C Universities Air Force Research Laboratory Advanced Technology Development Production, Fielding, Sustainment System Development & Demonstration Basic Research Concept Refinement Applied Research Advanced Development Budget Activity 1 (6.1) Budget Activity 2 (6.2) Budget Activity 3 (6.3) BA 5 BA 6,7 Budget Activity 4 • Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) • Initial Operational Test & Eval. (IOT&E) • Full Rate Production (FRP) • Initial Operational Capability (IOC) • Field and Sustain 3

  4. What New S&T Advances Will Create the Next Generation of USAF Capabilities? Maintaining superior capabilities over its adversaries requires the Air Force to continually seek new science and technology advances and integrate these into fieldable systems 4

  5. U.S. Air Force “Technology Horizons” SecAF / CSAF Tasking Letter Terms of Reference (TOR) 5

  6. Overview of Air Force S&T Visions 7 1 3 6 Technology Horizons (2010) New World Vistas (1995) Project Forecast (1964) Toward New Horizons (1945) High-impact studies Woods Hole Summer Study (1958) New Horizons II (1975) Project Forecast II (1986) 4 5 2 Low-impact studies 2010+ 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 • “Technology Horizons” is the next in a succession of major S&T vision studies conducted at the Headquarters Air Force level to define the key Air Force S&T investments over the next decade 6

  7. 10+10 Technology-to-Capability Process Cross-Domain Air STEP 2 STEP 1 Future U.S. Capabilities Space 10-Years-Forward Science & Technology Projection 10-Years-Forward Capabilities Projection Cyber S&T Advances in 10 Years Resulting Capabilities in 20 Years Potential Adversary Capabilities Capabilities Today (2010) (2020) (2030) Cyber 10-Years-Back Science & Technology Investment Need 10-Years-Back Counter-Capability Technology Need U.S. Counter- Capabilities Space STEP 4 STEP 3 Air Cross-Domain “10+10 Technology-to-Capability” process gives a deductive 20-year horizon view 7

  8. Broad Range of Inputs to Study Perspectives from participants in “Technology Horizons” working groups: Air, Space, Cyber, and Cross-Domain groups Representation on working groups from AFRL, MAJCOMs, NASIC, FFRDCs, industry, and academia Numerous Air Force operational perspectives from briefings and site visits, including AFMC, ACC, AFSPC, AMC and AFSOC Site visits, briefings, and discussions with organizations across Air Force, DoD, federal agencies, FFRDCs, national laboratories, and industry Site visits to in-theater operational bases Additional insights from S&T Cell at Air Force Futures Game 09 including US, CAN, UK and AUS members Studies and reports related to defense science, including Air Force Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) and Defense Science Board (DSB) Over 200 additional papers, reports, briefings and other sources 8

  9. “Technology Horizons” Study Phases Mar 09 Jun 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 2010 “Technology Horizons” 2010+ Working Phase 2 Working Phase 3 Working Phase 4 Implementation Phase 5 Planning Phase 1 Dissemination of Results and Implementation Air, Space, Cyber Domain Working Groups Cross-Domain Working Group Findings, Conclusions & Recommendations Objectives, Tasking, and Organization, Report and Outbrief 9

  10. Air Force S&T Vision for 2010-2030 from “Technology Horizons” 10

  11. Overarching Themes for VectoringAir Force S&T During 2010-2030 11

  12. Process to Identify Potential Capability Areas and Key Technology Areas 12

  13. Potential Capability Areas (1/2) PCA1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems PCA2: Automated Cyber Vulnerability Assessments PCA3: Decision-Quality Prediction of Behavior PCA4: Augmentation of Human Performance PCA5: Constructive Environments for Discovery and Training PCA6: Adaptive Flexibly-Autonomous Systems PCA7: Frequency-Agile Spectrum Utilization PCA8: Dominant Spectrum Warfare Operations PCA9: Precision Navigation/Timing in GPS-Denied Environments PCA10: Next-Generation High-Bandwidth Secure Communications PCA11: Persistent Near-Space Communications Relays PCA12: Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors PCA13: High-Altitude Long-Endurance ISR Airships PCA14: Prompt Theater-Range ISR/Strike Systems PCA15: Fractionated, Survivable, Remotely-Piloted Systems 13

  14. Potential Capability Areas (2/2) PCA16: Direct Forward Air Delivery and Resupply PCA17: Energy-Efficient Partially Buoyant Cargo Airlifters PCA18: Fuel-Efficient Hybrid Wing-Body Aircraft PCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines PCA20: Embedded Diagnostic/Prognostic Subsystems PCA21: Penetrating Persistent Long-Range Strike PCA22: High-Speed Penetrating Cruise Missile PCA23: Hyperprecision Low-Collateral Damage Munitions PCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense PCA25: Enhanced Underground Strike with Conventional Munitions PCA26: Reusable Airbreathing Access-to-Space Launch PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small Satellites PCA28: Fractionated/Distributed Space Systems PCA29: Persistent Space Situational Awareness PCA30: Improved Orbital Conjunction Prediction 14

  15. Mapping Potential Capability Areas to Air Force Service Core Functions Potential Capability Areas (PCA1-PCA30) span over all 12 Air Force Service Core Functions (SCFs) 15

  16. Dramatically Increased Use of Highly Adaptable Autonomous Systems • Capability increases, manpower efficiencies, and cost reductions are possible through far greater use of autonomous systems • Dramatic in degree of autonomy and range of systems and processes where autonomous reasoning and control can be applied • Adaptive autonomy can offer time-domain operational advantages over adversaries using human planning and decision loops • S&T to establish “certifiable” trust in highly adaptible autonomous systems is a key to enabling this transformation • Potential adversaries may gain benefits from fielding such systems without any burden of establishing certifiable “trust in autonomy” • As one of the greatest beneficiaries of such autonomous systems, the Air Force must lead in developing the underlying S&T basis 16 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  17. Augmentation of Human Performance to Better Match Users with Technology • Natural human capacities are becoming increasingly mismatched to data volumes, processing capabilities, and decision speeds that are offered or demanded by technology • S&T to augment human performance will be needed to gain benefits of new technologies • May come from increaed use of autonomous systems, improved man-machine interfaces, or direct augmentation of humans 17 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  18. Technologies to Enable Freedom of Operations in Contested Environments • S&T advances are needed in three key areas to enable increased freedom of operations in contested or denied environments • Basic and early applied research are needed to support development of these capabilities • Technologies for increased cyber resilience • e.g., massive virtualization, highly polymorphic networks, agile hypervisors • Technologies to augment or supplant PNT in GPS-denied environments • e.g., cold-atom (Bose-Einstein condensate) INS systems, chip-scale atomic clocks • Technologies to support dominance in electromagnetic spectrum warfare • e.g., dynamic spectrum access, spectral mutability, advanced RF apertures 18 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  19. Processing-Enabled Intelligent SensorsFractionated Composable UAV Systems Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors • Current massive data flow from ISR platforms is created tremendous PED manpower need • Full-motion video (FMV) analysis is growing; even more Gorgon State and ARGUS-IS • Technologies needed to enable cueing-level processing before data leaves the sensor • UAV system fractionation is a relatively new architecture enabled by technology advances • Allows complete system to be separated into functional elements cooperating as a system • Common platform having element-specific payload enabled lower cost and attritability • Permits mission-specific composition of systems from lower-cost common elements • Low levels of redundancy among elements dramatically increases system survivability Fractionated Survivable Remote-Piloted Systems 19 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  20. Additional Potential Capability Areas (PCAs) in “Technology Horizons” PCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines PCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small Satellites PCA30: Persistent Space Situational Awareness 20 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  21. Technology Areas Identified for Each Potential Capability Area (e.g., PCA1) Ad hoc networks Virtual machine architectures Agile hypervisors Polymorphic networks Agile networks Pseudorandom network recomposition Laser communications Secure RF links Frequency-agile RF systems Spectral mutability Dynamic spectrum access Quantum key distribution Complex adaptive distributed networks Complex adaptive systems Complex system dynamics V&V for complex adaptive systems • PCA1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems • Autonomous systems • Autonomous reasoning • Resilient autonomy • Collaborative/cooperative control • Decision support tools • Automated software generation • Distributed sensing networks • Sensor data fusion • Signal identification and recognition • Cyber offense • Cyber defense • Cyber resilience • Advanced computing architectures • Complex environment visualization • Massive analytics • Automated reasoning and learning 21

  22. Combined Set of Technology Areas Identified Across all 30 PCAs (1/2) • Advanced aerodynamic configurations • Aerodynamic experimental evaluation • Cold-atom INS • Chip-scale atomic clocks • Advanced TPS materials • Scramjet propulsion systems • Ad hoc networks • Polymorphic networks • Virtual machine architectures • Agile hypervisors • Agile networks • Pseudorandom network recomposition • Complex adaptive distributed networks • Modular small-sat components • Distributed small-sat architectures • Fractionated small-sat architectures • Laser communications • Short-range secure RF communications • Frequency-agile RF systems • Spectral mutability • Dynamic spectrum access • Quantum key distribution • Complex adaptive systems • Complex system dynamics • V&V for complex adaptive systems • Solid-state lasers • Fiber lasers • Semiconductor lasers • Beam control • Directed energy effects • Directed energy protection • High-power microwaves • Quantum computing • Space weather • Orbital environment characterization • Satellite drag modeling • Space situational awareness • Lightweight multi-functional structures • Advanced composite fabrication • Structural modeling and simulation • Multi-scale simulation technologies • Coupled multi-physics simulations • Validation support to simulations • Autonomous systems • Autonomous reasoning • Resilient autonomy • Collaborative/cooperative control • Autonomous mission planning • Embedded diagnostics • Health monitoring and prognosis • Decision support tools • Automated software generation • High-altitude airships • Passive radar • Advanced RF apertures • Secure RF links 22

  23. Combined Set of Technology Areas Identified Across all 30 PCAs (2/2) • Lightweight materials • Advanced composites • Composites sustainment • Optical and infrared materials • RF and electronic materials • Metamaterials • Self-healing materials • Nanomaterials • Nondestructive evaluation • Material-specific manufacturing • Hydrocarbon boost engine • Spacecraft propulsion • Electric propulsion • Energy storage • High-temperature electronics • Radiation hardened electronics • Alternate fuels • System-level thermal management M&S • Thermal management components • Three-stream engine architectures • High-temperature fuel technologies • High-OPR compressors • Engine component testing • Advanced and interturbine burners • Efficient bleedless inlets  • Serpentine nozzles • High-speed turbines • RF electronic warfare • EO/IR sensing • IR signature suppression • Distributed sensing networks • Integrated sensing and processing • Sensor-based processing • Signal identification and recognition • Information fusion and understanding • Cyber offense • Cyber defense • Cyber resilience • Advanced computing architectures • Biological signatures • Human behavior modeling • Cultural behavior modeling • Social network modeling • Behavior prediction and anticipation • Influence measures • Cognitive modeling • Complex environment visualization • Massive analytics • Automated reasoning and learning • Cognitive performance augmentation • Physical performance augmentation • Human-machine interfaces • High-temperature materials • High-altitude materials 23

  24. High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE) Air Vehicle Systems • New unmanned aircraft systems (VULTURE) and airships (ISIS) can remain aloft for years • Delicate lightweight structures can survive low-altitude winds if launch can be chosen • Enabled by solar cells powering lightweight batteries or regenerative fuel cell systems • Large airships containing football field size radars give extreme resolution/persistence DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept 24 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  25. Airship-Based HALE ISR Systems & Partially-Buoyant Cargo Airlifters • HALE airship platforms are being examined for numerous ISR and comm relay applications • Current DoD HALE Airship programs include: • Long-Endurance Multi-INT Vehicle (LEMV) • HALE Demonstrator (HALE-D) • Blue Devil (Polar 400 airship + King Air A-90) • Integrated Sensor is Structure (ISIS) • Hybrid airships achieve partial lift from buoyancy and part aerodynamically from forward flight Examples of Current DoD HALE Airship Programs High-Altitude Long-Endurance Demo HALE-D LMCO “Project 791” Blue Devil “Polar 400” DARPA “ISIS” 25 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  26. Hybrid Wing-Body (HWB) Aircraft for Higher Aerodynamic Fuel Efficiency • Hybrid wing-body with blended juncture has greater fuel efficiency than tube-and-wing • Body provides significant fraction of total lift; resulting volumetric efficiency is improved • Potential Air Force uses as airborne tanker or as cargo transport aircraft • Fabrication of pressurized body sections is enabled by PRSEUS technology • X-48B flight tests (NASA / AFRL / Boeing) have examined aerodynamic performance 26 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  27. Scramjet Engine Development and Scale-Up in Robust Scramjet Program • Hydrocarbon-fueled dual-mode ram/scramjet combustor allows operation over Mach range • Thermal management, ignition, flameholding • GDE-1 was flight weight hydrocarbon fuel-cooled but with open-loop fuel system • GDE-2 was closed-loop hydrocarbon fuel-cooled system intended for NASA X-43C • SJX61-1,2 were closed-loop HC fuel-cooled development/clearance engines for X-51A Ground Demo Engine (GDE-2) SJX61-1 Development Engine SJX61-2 Flight Clearance Engine 27 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  28. Hypersonic Global ISR Vehicles • JP-fueled scramjet propulsion system could potentially enable a medium-size rapid-response ISR vehicle having operationally relevant range capability • Mach 6 limit avoids complex thermal management penalties at higher Mach • Vertical takeoff / horizontal landing (VTHL) enables single-stage rocket-based combined-cycle (RBCC) system having 5000 nmi range with 2000 lbs payload • Integral rocket boost to Mach 3.5 with ram-scram acceleration to Mach 6 • Time-responsive missions at long ranges while maintaining runway landings Notional Mach 6 single-stage reusable VTHL ISR vehicle with 5000 nmi range (Astrox) 28 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  29. Airbreathing Two-Stage-to-Orbit (TSTO) Access to Space Vehicles • Airbreathing systems offer enormous advantages for TSTO access-to-space; reusable space access with aircraft-like operations • Air Force / NASA conducting joint configuration option assessments using Level 1 & 2 analyses • Reusable rockets (RR), turbine-based (TBCC) and rocket-based (RBCC) combined cycles 29 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  30. Laser-Based Directed Energy Systems for Low Collateral Damage Strike • Laser-based directed energy systems approaching operationally useful power, size, and beam quality • Distinction between tactical DE (e.g., ATL in C-130) vs. strategic DE (e.g., ABL in B747) • Tactical-scale systems enabled ultra-low collateral damage strike and airborne self-defense • Technology path from COIL lasers to bulk solid state (e.g., HELLADS) to fiber lasers to DPALs • Demonstration path leads to airborne test (ELLA) AFRL Fiber Laser Testbed North Oscura Peak (NOP) White Sands Missile Range ELLA Flight Demonstration AFRL Rubidium DPAL Experiment General Atomics Unit Cells Textron 2010 2012 2017 30 26 August 2010 AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

  31. “Grand Challenges” for Air Force S&T #1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Networks • Autonomous scalable technologies enabling large, nonsecure networks to be inherently resilient to attacks entering through network or application layers, and to attacks that pass through these layers #2: Trusted Highly-Autonomous Decision-Making Systems • Broad principles, theoretical constructs, and algorithmic embodiments for autonomous decision-making in applications where inherent decision time scales far exceed human capacity #3: Fractionated, Composable, Survivable, Autonomous Systems • Survivable system architecture based on fractionation with redundancy using collaborative control and adapative autonomous mission planning #4: Hyper-Precision Aerial Delivery in Difficult Environments • Low-cost, air-dropped, autonomously guided, precise delivery under GPS-denial for altitudes and winds representative of steep mountainous terrain 31

  32. Main Take-Away Points • Air Force S&T priorities span across a wide range of technical areas • Technology Horizons gives the vision for key USAF S&T over next decade • Growing technology areas include dramatically increased use of highly adaptable autonomous systems • Fractionated composable architectures enable a new approach for high/low missions and low cost survivability • Technologies for reducing fuel costs will become increasingly important • e.g., airships, HWB, VAATE programs • “Technology Horizons” is already being used to increase focus of Air Force S&T 32

  33. Questions / Discussion 33

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