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Development of the Hurricane WRF prototype System at EMC Robert E. Tuleya EMC/NCEP/NOAA/SAIC With HWRF team HWRF tutoria PowerPoint Presentation
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Development of the Hurricane WRF prototype System at EMC Robert E. Tuleya EMC/NCEP/NOAA/SAIC With HWRF team HWRF tutorial NCEP October 26-27, 2004 OUTLINE What is a Hurricane Forecast system?? Design of the prototype system for HWRF Important forecast files and information

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slide1

Development of the Hurricane WRF prototype System at EMC

Robert E. Tuleya

EMC/NCEP/NOAA/SAIC

With HWRF team

HWRF tutorial NCEP October 26-27, 2004

outline
OUTLINE
  • What is a Hurricane Forecast system??
  • Design of the prototype system for HWRF
  • Important forecast files and information
  • 2004 preliminary HWRF forecasts
  • Future plans
slide3

Hurricane Forecast System

Storm information

NHC storm message

Position domain

model initial & boundary conditions

Wrf si

Wrf real

Wrf model

Model integration

Model hurricane output products

Synoptic fields for many variables

Create file for track, intensity, etc

emc2 wx20tr wrfemc hwrf parx18 starthwrfenv sh
#!/bin/ksh

YYMMDDHH=`date '+%y%m%d%H'`

YYMMDDTD=`date '+%y%m%d'`

YYTD=`date '+%y'`

MMTD=`date '+%m'`

DDTD=`date '+%d'`

TOMORROW=`expr $YYMMDDTD + 1`

TODAY=$YYMMDDTD

cd /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18

if [ "$#" -eq 0 ]

then

echo running from operational ncep/nhc request message file

echo make sure operational host model forecast files are available

cp -p /com/hur/prod/inpdata/message1 storm1

elif [ "$#" -eq 2 ]

then

echo running from $user supplied nhc request message file

cp /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18/$1.$2.message1 storm1

elif [ "$#" -eq 1 ]

then

echo requires 2 arguments: storm yymmddhh; exit

elif [ "$#" -gt 2 ]

then

echo requires 2 arguments: storm yymmddhh; exit

fi

cat storm1

# set HWRF variables needed for prototype runs

STORM=`cat storm1 | cut -c10-19`

STORMID=`cat storm1 | cut -c6-8`

CYC=`cat storm1 | cut -c27-28`

YY=`cat storm1 | cut -c20-21`

MM=`cat storm1 | cut -c22-23`

DD=`cat storm1 | cut -c24-25`

YYMMDD=`cat storm1 | cut -c20-25`

TOMORROWF=`expr $YYMMDD + 0`

TODAYF=$YYMMDD

LATT=`cat storm1 | cut -c32-34`

LONT=`cat storm1 | cut -c37-40`

LATF=`cat storm1 | cut -c117-120`

LONF=`cat storm1 | cut -c123-126`

echo 'storm varibles for HWRF'

echo $STORM $STORMID $YY $MM $DD $CYC $LATT $LONT $LATF $LONF

# center domain 10deg west of storm center if no 72hr fcst

if [ $LONF -lt 0 ]

then

echo 'missing longitude forecast'

LONF=`expr $LONT + 200`

fi

CENT=`expr $LONT + $LONF`

CENTAVG=`expr $CENT / 2`

echo $LONT $LONF $CENT $CENTAVG

CENLO=`expr -$CENTAVG / 10`

echo 'center longitude of grid ' $CENLO

if [ "$#" -eq 0 ]

then

# reset longitude if storm1 mesage is old

if [ $TODAYF -ne $TODAY ]

then

echo storm card different day

echo $TODAYF 'is forecast day '$TODAY 'is today'

YY=$YYTD

MM=$MMTD

DD=$DDTD

STORM='ATL60'

CENLO=-60

fi

if [ $CYC -ne '00' ]

then

echo storm card not 00UTC

CYC='00'

STORM='ATL60'

CENLO=-60

fi

fi

CENLA=22.5

CENLA=25

echo 'domain center' $CENLA $CENLO

MODIN=AVN

# put environmenta variables into super script...

/emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18/starthwrfenv.sh
emc2 wx20tr wrfemc hwrf parx18 superenv scr
# put environmenta variables into super script...

cat << eor > superenv.scr

# @ step_name = wrfsi

# @ output = /ptmp/wx20tr/supersi.out

# @ error = /ptmp/wx20tr/supersi.err

# @ notification = never

##

## DOMAIN YR MO D C LAT LON MODEL

## = = = = = = = =

# @ arguments = $STORM 20$YY $MM $DD $CYC $CENLA $CENLO $MODIN

##

# @ wall_clock_limit = 01:30:00

# @ job_type = serial

# @ node_usage=not_shared

# @ class = dev

# @ executable = /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/NMMSI/PARX18/wrfsi.scr

# @ queue

# @ dependency = (wrfsi == 0)

# @ step_name = real

# @ output = /ptmp/wx20tr/superreal.out

# @ error = /ptmp/wx20tr/superreal.err

# @ notification = never

# @ wall_clock_limit = 01:00:00

# @ job_type = parallel

# @ total_tasks = 1

# @ node_usage=not_shared

# @ blocking=unlimited

# @ arguments = $STORM 20$YY $MM $DD $CYC

# @ class = dev

# @ network.MPI = csss,shared,us

# @ executable = /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18/real_nmm.scr

# @ queue

# @ dependency = (real == 0)

# @ step_name = wrfmodel

# @ output = /ptmp/wx20tr/supernmm.out

# @ error = /ptmp/wx20tr/supernmm.err

# @ notification = never

# @ wall_clock_limit = 03:00:00

# @ job_type = parallel

# @ total_tasks = 61

# @ node_usage=shared

# @ blocking=unlimited

# @ arguments = $STORM 20$YY $MM $DD $CYC

# @ class = dev

# @ network.MPI = csss,shared,us

# @ executable = /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18/wrf_nmm.scr

# @ queue

# @ dependency = (wrfmodel == 0)

# @ step_name = wrfpost

# @ output = /ptmp/wx20tr/superpost.out

# @ error = /ptmp/wx20tr/superpost.err

# @ notification = never

# @ wall_clock_limit = 00:60:00

# @ job_type = parallel

# @ total_tasks = 1

# @ node_usage=not_shared

# @ blocking=unlimited

# @ class = dev

# @ network.MPI = csss,shared,us

# @ arguments = $STORM 20$YY $MM $DD $CYC $CENLA $CENLO

# @ executable = /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/WRFpost.scr

# @ queue

eor

#

cat superenv.scr

llsubmit superenv.scr

/emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/PARX18/superenv.scr

wrfsi

wrfmodel

wrfreal

wrfpost

storm information
Storm information
  • Independent of objective analysis
  • Request by NHC to NCEP to run model
  • Enables bogussing and grid positioning
  • Current position, wind distribution etc.
  • File name coined ‘vitals or storm message’
  • e.g. /com/hur/prod/inpdata/message1

NHC 05E DARBY 040729 1200 173N 1274W 295 062 0960 1008 0278 51 028

0241 0241 0111 0167 D 0148 0111 0074 0130 72 195N 1400W

hwrf features
HWRF features
  • Uses WRF NMM dynamic core
  • Initial condition options
  • Current or historical cases
  • GFS or GFDL initial conditions
  • Physics options
  • Eta model physics
  • Transitioning to GFDL(GFS) physics
additional hwrf features
Additional HWRF features
  • Requires grib input of initial conditions
  • Uses wrf binary and netcdf files
  • Rotated-E NMM grid … a bit awkward
  • WRF SI…a slow, big, generalized interpolator
  • Netcdf WRF output on native model grid
  • HWRF post
  • Uses EMC post utilities to interpolate to ‘A’ grid on pressure levels
  • Creates synoptic fields at ~ model resolution
  • EMC post output grids in grib format
  • Creates ‘atcf_unix’ file to track storm location, intensity, and extent
  • Attempt to use grads-based analysis tools
  • More output products to be developed
emc2 wx20tr wrfemc hwrf wrfpost wrfpost scr
#!/bin/ksh

##@ output = out.post_wrf

#@ error = err.post_wrf

#@ job_type = parallel

##@ class = dev

#@ class = 1

#@ total_tasks = 1

#@ blocking = unlimited

##@ node = 1

#@ wall_clock_limit = 00:60:00

#@ preferences = Feature == "dev"

#@ network.MPI = csss,shared,us

#@ queue

set -x

export MP_SHARED_MEMORY=yes

export MP_LABELIO=yes

export tmmark=tm00

export DOMAIN=${1}

export YEAR=${2}

export MONTH=${3}

export DATE=${4}

export CYCLE=${5}

export CENLA=${6}

export CENLO=${7}

STORM=$DOMAIN

MM=$MONTH

DD=$DATE

CYC=$CYCLE

COMPATH=/ptmp/$user/$STORM.${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC}

export WRFROOT=wrfout_d01_

cd $TMPDIR/$user/

export OUTDIR=$COMPATH

export YYYYMMDDHH=${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC}

for hr in 00 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48\

54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96

do

# create wrf output file name

MF=`/nwprod/util/exec/ndate $hr $YYYYMMDDHH | cut -c5-6`

DF=`/nwprod/util/exec/ndate $hr $YYYYMMDDHH | cut -c7-8`

HF=`/nwprod/util/exec/ndate $hr $YYYYMMDDHH | cut -c9-10`

hour=${DF}T${HF}

echo $DF $MF $CYC $COMPATH >> $COMPATH/wrfposttest.out

export tmmark=$hour

cat > itag <<EOF

$OUTDIR/${WRFROOT}${YEAR}-$MF-$hour:00:00

netcdf

$YEAR-$MF-$hour:00:00

NMM

EOF

#

#-----------------------------------------------------------------------

# Run etapost.

rm fort.*

ln -sf /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/wrf_cntrl.parmtrack fort.14

ln -sf /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/griddef.out fort.110

poe /emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/wrfpost.x_ncare < itag >> $OUTDIR/outpost_wrf

#----------------------------------------------------------------------

# End of output job

fhour=`ls WRFPRS??.???? | cut -c7-8`

echo $fhour

mv WRFPRS??.???? $OUTDIR/WRFPRS${fhour}.grib

done

# now extract needed grib varibles and interpolate them onto lat-lon grid

/emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/interp_wrfine.sh

# run tracker

/emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/runtrak.sh

# now interpolate synoptic hourly data to lat-lon grib files...

/emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/interp_wrfhrly.sh

# ftp important data to lnx55 hwrf site...

ftp -v lnx55 <<eor

passive

binary

prompt

lcd $OUTDIR

mkdir /work/hwrf/$STORM.${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC}

cd /work/hwrf/$STORM.${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC}

mput trak.hwrf*

mput wrf.latlon.${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC}*

bye

eor

## end of ftp

# save wrf files to archive...

htar -cvf /hpssuser/g01/wx20tr/$STORM.${YEAR}${MM}${DD}${CYC} $OUTDIR/wrf.latlon.* $OUTDIR/wrfout* $OUTDIR/wrfbdy_d01 $OUTDIR/wrfinput_d01 $OUTDIR/trak.hwrf*

exit

/emc2/wx20tr/WRFEMC/HWRF/WRFPOST/WRFpost.scr

create tracker file

run tracker

create synoptic data

archive data

critical atcf unix file communicates storm information
Critical atcf_unix file communicates storm information

model

  • /tpcprd/atcf_unix/aal092004.dat
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 0, 182N, 796W, 158, 903
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 6, 186N, 804W, 141, 909
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 12, 190N, 813W, 130, 922
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 18, 194N, 822W, 127, 924
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 24, 200N, 828W, 129, 921
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 30, 207N, 835W, 131, 923
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 36, 216N, 842W, 130, 921
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDL, 42, 224N, 848W, 130, 924
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDT, 000, 183N, 797W, 112, 960, XX, 34, NEQ, 0190, 0119, 0089, 0118
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDT, 000, 183N, 797W, 112, 960, XX, 50, NEQ, 0074, 0071, 0064, 0066
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDT, 000, 183N, 797W, 112, 960, XX, 64, NEQ, 0056, 0055, 0048, 0050
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDT, 012, 191N, 814W, 117, 961, XX, 34, NEQ, 0316, 0315, 0194, 0311
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, GFDT, 012, 191N, 814W, 117, 961, XX, 50, NEQ, 0128, 0104, 0109, 0137
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, UKM, 0, 181N, 798W, 0
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, UKM, 12, 187N, 809W, 0
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, UKM, 24, 197N, 821W, 0
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, UKM, 36, 212N, 831W, 0
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, UKM, 48, 226N, 840W, 0
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 01, CARQ, 0, 182N, 796W, 145, 910, XX, 34, NEQ, 150, 100, 100, 150, 1007, 240, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 7, IVAN , D,
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 01, CARQ, 0, 182N, 796W, 145, 910, XX, 50, NEQ, 90, 75, 60, 90, 1007, 240, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 7, IVAN , D,
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 01, CARQ, 0, 182N, 796W, 145, 910, XX, 64, NEQ, 60, 30, 30, 60, 1007, 240, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 7, IVA , D,
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, SHIP, 12, 192N, 812W, 146, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, SHIP, 24, 206N, 824W, 139, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, SHIP, 36, 222N, 834W, 131, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
  • AL, 09, 2004091200, 03, SHIP, 48, 238N, 842W, 131, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

structure

position

intensity

tracker software to create storm temporal forecast information
Tracker software to create storm temporal forecast information
  • May be part of model run or done in post in/out of house
  • ‘tracker’ becoming a misnomer since intensity and storm structure also analyzed
  • Usually requires temporal data near surface, 850mb and 500mb
  • Usually multi-variable analysis…vorticity, U, V, T, etc.
  • EMC uses scheme by Tim Marchok (GFDL)
2004 preliminary hwrf forecasts
2004 preliminary HWRF forecasts
  • Run at least one storm per day (00utc)
  • >120 uniform resolution cases
  • ~20km resolution with 42 GFDL levels
  • System found to be quite robust with few if any non-user failures
  • Started with eta-physics, GFS initial condition
  • A work in progress !!
additional products needed
Additional products needed
  • Requires wrf output at shorter time interval
  • Puts strains on distributed software design
  • New products needed??
summary plans
Summary & Plans
  • An active start for HWRF !
  • Migrate to improved initial condition
  • Migrate to GFDL-type physics + microphysics
  • Begin forecast verification & analysis
  • Compare with GFDL and other models
  • Initiate moveable, nested HWRF