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National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii Raymond Tanabe Warning Coordination Meteorologist NOAA NWS Pacific Region Pacific Region Headquarters Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

National Weather Service

Weather Forecast Office

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Honolulu, Hawaii

Raymond Tanabe

Warning Coordination Meteorologist

noaa nws pacific region
NOAA NWS Pacific Region
  • Pacific Region Headquarters
  • Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
  • CPHC/Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Honolulu (Co-located at UH-Manoa)
    • 2 Data Collection Offices (Hilo and Lihue)
  • WFO Guam
cphc weather forecast office largest forecast office in u s
CPHC/Weather Forecast Office (Largest Forecast Office in U.S.)
  • 5 Management Staff (4 Meteorologists)
  • 20 Meteorologists
  • 4 Hydro-meteorological Technicians
  • 1 Meteorologist Intern
  • 3 Electronics Technicians
  • 2 Contract Information Technologists
  • 1 International Pacific Training Desk Trainer
  • 3 Pacific ENSO Application Center Personnel
local forecast office programs
Local Forecast Office Programs
  • Hawaii - Watches, Warnings, Advisories, and Forecasts
  • Public - Day to day
  • Aviation - 11 Airport Forecasts
  • Satellite - Tropical Weather Outlooks
  • Hydrology - Flash Flooding, Drought
  • Marine - Winds, Waves, Seas, Surf, Rip Tides
  • Climate - El Nino / La Nina Impacts
  • Fire Weather - Wildfires, HAZMAT
  • Winter Weather - Yes it snows in Hawaii
  • Severe Weather – Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Hail
regional forecast programs
Regional Forecast Programs
  • Central Pacific Hurricane Center
    • Central Pacific 140W to 180 north of Equator
    • UN World Meteorological Organization Recognized Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for Central Pacific
  • Marine
    • High Seas Forecast (N and S Pacific)
  • Aviation
    • Advisories of Significant Weather for Aircraft
  • Climate – Pacific ENSO Application Center
tropical cyclones hurricane iniki sep 11 1992
Tropical Cyclones - Hurricane Iniki, Sep 11, 1992
  • 4 to 5 tropical cyclones (TD, TS, Hcn) annually in the Central Pacific
  • Direct hits rare…but devastating
    • 3 in last 50 years
    • Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), Iniki (1992)
terminology
Terminology
  • Tropical Cyclone: Generic term. Includes Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes.
  • Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less. Assigned a number (e.g., TD-01C)
  • Tropical Storm: Winds of 39 to 73 mph. Assigned a name.
  • Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher. Five Categories. Category 5 >155mph
central pacific tropical cyclone season
Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season
  • Season: June 1 to November 30
    • Tropical Cyclones can occur in any month
  • Central Pacific Average per Year
    • 4-5 Tropical Cyclones
  • 1971 to 2008: 163 Tropical Cyclones
    • 36% Hurricanes, 28% Tropical Storms,

36% Tropical Depressions

recipe for tropical cyclones
Recipe for Tropical Cyclones
  • Sea Surface Temperatures
  • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area
  • Weak Vertical Wind Shear
  • Low Level Disturbance
  • Region of upper level divergence/outflow
recipe for tropical cyclones15
Recipe for Tropical Cyclones
  • Sea Surface Temperatures
  • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area
  • Weak Vertical Wind Shear
  • Low Level Disturbance
  • Region of upper level divergence/outflow
slide16

Effect of Vertical Wind Shear

40,000 ft/200 mb

H

H

Typical cruising altitude

of commercial airplane

Heat

Heat

5,000 ft/850 mb

L

L

Surface

recipe for tropical cyclones17
Recipe for Tropical Cyclones
  • Sea Surface Temperatures
  • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area
  • Weak Vertical Wind Shear
  • Low Level Disturbance
  • Region of upper level divergence/outflow
recipe for tropical cyclones19
Recipe for Tropical Cyclones
  • Sea Surface Temperatures
  • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area
  • Weak Vertical Wind Shear
  • Low Level Disturbance
  • Region of upper level divergence/outflow
tropical cyclone impacts
Tropical Cyclone Impacts
  • Extreme wind conditions

Iniki: wind gusts greater that 150 mph

Iwa: wind gusts greater that 120 mph

  • Flash Flooding

Iniki: 8 to 10 inches over short time frame

TD 1-C: 14+ inches upslope of Hilo

  • Storm Surge, High surf

Iniki: 30 to 35 ft surf on Kauai, high water marks up to 25 ft, 3 to 4 ft storm surge

Estelle: 10 to 20 ft surf even though closest passage was 120 nm south of Big Island.

central pacific hurricane center text products
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterText Products
  • Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Tropical Cyclone Discussion
  • Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory
  • Tropical Cyclone Local Statements
central pacific hurricane center tropical weather outlook
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Weather Outlook
  • Issued 4 times daily during hurricane season – June 1 through November 30
    • 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, 10 PM HST
  • The Tropical Weather Outlook provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest
  • Can give you several days “heads up” before a tropical cyclone actually develops
central pacific hurricane center tropical weather outlook25
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Weather Outlook

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

400 AM HST TUE JUN 8 2004

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

central pacific hurricane center tropical weather outlook26
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Weather Outlook

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

1000 AM HST FRI MAY 11 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

tropical cyclone products
Tropical Cyclone Products
  • Once a tropical cyclone develops or moves into the Central North Pacific, Tropical Discussions, Public Advisories, and Forecast/Advisories are issued at regularly scheduled times
    • 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM
  • For storms that are expected to remain over water and not affect any land areas, these three are the only products issued
  • For tropical cyclone that are expected to impact land areas, position estimates, intermediate advisories, and local statements are also issued.
central pacific hurricane center tropical cyclone discussion
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Cyclone Discussion
  • Explain the forecaster’s reasoning behind the analysis and forecast of the tropical cyclone
  • Assess confidence or uncertainty
  • Reason for change in track or intensity forecast
  • Plans for watches and warnings
central pacific hurricane center tropical cyclone discussion29
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Cyclone Discussion

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...TWO-C HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION .

WIND RADII WERE ALSO EXPANDED PRIMARILY THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND QUIKSCAT DATA.

THE FORECAST TRACK OF TWO-C HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...

THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS INCREASED THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY.

ITS PROJECTED PATH KEEPS TWO-C OVER WATER AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS ALSO PLACES TWO-C FURTHER AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND.

central pacific hurricane center forecast advisory
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterForecast /Advisory
  • Short Term Section (days 1-3)
    • Current position and movement
    • Forecast center positions
    • Maximum wind speed and gusts in knots
    • 34, 50, and 64 knot wind speed radii
  • Extended Outlook Section (days 4-5)
    • Forecast center positions
    • Maximum wind speed in knots
central pacific hurricane center forecast advisory31
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterForecast / Advisory

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 160.9W AT 09/2100Z.

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM.

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 KT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB.

EYE DIAMETER 10 NM.

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW

50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW

34 KT........200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW

12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW

ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES

central pacific hurricane center public advisory
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterPublic Advisory
  • Watches or warnings in effect
    • Highlights most significant conditions
    • Reference to local statements from Civil Defense and NWS
    • Location, movement, and intensity of tropical cyclone
  • Intermediate Advisories
    • Issued at 2 or 3 hour intervals when a tropical cyclone affects or is forecast to affect an island
  • Special advisories
    • Issued anytime significant changes occur
    • Cancellation of a Hurricane/Tropical storm Watch or Warning
    • Classification of tropical cyclone changes
    • A tornado threat develops
central pacific hurricane center public advisory33
Central Pacific Hurricane CenterPublic Advisory

AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.3 WEST OR ABOUT 875 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

hurricane local statements
Hurricane Local Statements
  • Specific details for county area
  • Watches and/or warnings in effect
  • Hurricane/Tropical Storm location, movement, and intensity
  • Significant details – wind, surf, rain and flood potential, tornado potential
  • Civil Defense evacuation orders
  • Precautions necessary to protect life and property
  • Frequent releases – every 2 or 3 hours, more often if necessary
hurricane local statements35
Hurricane Local Statements

HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI

1200 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

...AREAS AFFECTED...

...WATCHES WARNINGS...

....STORM INFORMATION...

...PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS...

...HIGH SURF AND TIDE IMPACTS...

...WIND IMPACTS...

...FLOODING IMPACTS...

...NEXT UPDATE...

central pacific hurricane center watches and warnings
Central Pacific Hurricane Center Watches and Warnings

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch

  • Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are possible within 48* hours.

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning

  • Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are expected within 36* hours

* Change starting with 2009 season in Central Pacific.

graphical tropical weather outlook
Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Graphical companion to text product
  • Will include a three-tiered, color-coded, categorical genesis forecast for the next 48 hours
    • Low: Probability of genesis less than 30%
    • Medium: Probability of genesis 30-50%
    • High: Probability of genesis greater than 50%
emergency plans
Emergency Plans
  • Continuity of Operations
  • Individuals/Families – 7 days
  • Businesses
  • Gather information about hazards
  • Meet with your Company/family to create/review plans
tropical storm kika 7 12 august 2008
Tropical Storm Kika 7-12 August 2008
  • First and only tropical cyclone in Central Pacific Basin for 2008
  • Peaked at minimal Tropical Storm strength
  • No impacts to Hawaiian Islands and no significant impacts to other Pacific Islands
tropical storm kika
Tropical Storm Kika

7 August 2008 130pm

tropical storm kika51
Tropical Storm Kika

8 August 2008 530pm

2009 hurricane season outlook
2009 Hurricane Season Outlook
  • 80% near to below normal season
    • 3-5 Tropical Cyclones
  • 20% chance of above normal season
    • 6+ Tropical Cyclones if moderate-strong El Nino develops
  • Have to prepare same way regardless of outlook
questions
Questions?

National Weather Service

2525 Correa Road Suite 250

Honolulu, HI 96822-2219

973-5270

raymond.tanabe@noaa.gov 973-5275

www.weather.gov/hawaii