The Menu for Choice

The Menu for Choice Analyzing American Foreign Policy

I. Models and Ideologies • What’s the difference?

B. Three common models of international relations

1. Examples of Realism • RISK • Lord Palmerston: “His Majesty’s Government has no permanent friends, only permanent interests.” • Winston Churchill: “If Hitler invaded hell, I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.”

2. Objections to Realism • States are not unitary actors – Realism ignores influences below the state level of analysis (bureaucratic politics, interest groups, public opinion, etc) • Do states pursue the national interest? Realists are divided between those who say “they do” and those who say “they should.” Are all leaders motivated by what’s best for their nation? • What is the national interest? Beyond survival, people disagree.

1. Examples of Liberalism • United Nations • Cultural Exchanges • Free-Trade Agreements • Woodrow Wilson’s Fourteen Points: • “I. Open covenants of peace, openly arrived at.... • II. Absolute freedom of navigation upon the seas…. • III. The removal….of all economic barriers and the establishment of an equality of trade conditions among all the nations…. • IV. …. national armaments will be reduced to the lowest point consistent with domestic safety…. • XIV. A general association of nations must be formed under ….mutual guarantees of political independence and territorial integrity to great and small states alike.”

2. Objections to Liberalism • Liberal states practice power politics – US interventionism • Liberalism ignores “relative gains” concerns – mutually beneficial deals will be rejected if leaders believe that the other side will benefit more AND might one day be an adversary

1. Examples of Radicalism • Critique of Foreign Aid and Dependency: “From poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.” • Investors, Arms Dealers, and World War I • Wealth Transfer Between Americans in the Iraq War: “No Blood for Oil”

2. Criticisms of Radicalism • Difficult to explain changes in foreign policy – class relations are more or less static in capitalist countries, but policies aren’t • War is usually bad for businesses other than arms dealers • National solidarity usually stronger than class solidarity  states actually matter

C. A basic model of foreign policy decision-making: The Menu for Choice • Key Actors = Leaders • Goals = Stay in Office, Improve Policy, Personal Gain • World System = Constraint on Leaders • Menu Analogy a. Some items aren’t on the menu (no opportunity) b. Some items are on the menu but not desirable (no willingness) c. Item chosen = preferred, available dish (both opportunity and willingness)

5. Example: Saddam Hussein Menu • Kick the US out and execute traitors who thought about surrender • As above, but then invade the US to preempt future attacks • Surrender and go into exile • Delay US forces while searching for a way out of the war

D. The Puzzle: How does a State Select From the Menu?

II. Predicting OpportunitiesA. Levels of Analysis: Higher levels control opportunities System Region Dyad State Bureaucratic Group Individual

B. What affects opportunities? • System: Power relative to global and regional leaders  need to know what power is… • Region: “Neighborhood effects” of regime type, trade, and conflict • Dyad: Trade and relative power • State: Power projection capability, stage of development

C. Bureaucratic constraints: Models of decision-making Puzzle: Why do countries sometimes make inconsistent policy choices? Answers:

1. Organizational Processes Central insight: “Where you stand depends on where you sit.”

Features of Organizational Processes • Clienteles: serving interest groups behind organization’s programs • Parochialism: concentration on getting the agency’s job done (blind to trade-offs) • Imperialism: expanding agency operations and taking on more responsibilities

Features of Organizational Processes • Incrementalism: slow implementation of new programs • Arbitrariness: use of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) (regularized procedures) for efficiency • Satisficing: Choosing “good enough” rather than pursuing perfection

Example: The Air Force and the unlock codes • Air Force forced to install locks (PALs) on nuclear weapons during 1960s. • PALs require secret code to physically enable weapon. Even if missile launched, warhead won’t detonate without code. Prevents unauthorized use of nuclear weapons. • Air Force quietly sets code to 00000000 – and tells just about everyone involved in the launch process! • 1977: Congressional hearings lead Air Force to finally pick a new code

2. Governmental Politics, aka Bureaucratic Politics

Features of Bureaucratic Politics • Individuals use informal power to fight organizational constraints: “Who you know…” determines “pull” • Best predictor of bureaucratic decision is weighted median “voter” among stakeholders (bargaining produces coalitions)

Features of Bureaucratic Politics c. Acheson’s Rule: A memorandum is written not to inform the reader but to protect the writer

d. 51-49 principle: Decisions appear to be based on overconfidence (incentive to misrepresent 51% certainty as 100% for bargaining purposes)

C. Bureaucratic constraints: Models of decision-making

Groupthink: Hierarchic groups reinforce conformity, produce poor decisions

III. Predicting Willingness • Selectorate Theory: Emphasizes the political incentives facing leaders. Democratic leaders must keep members of a huge winning coalition happy, so tend to emphasize policies that benefit large groups. • Interest Group Theory: Small, highly organized groups exert more pressure than large, poorly organized groups, distorting foreign policy. • Psychological Models: Where leaders have autonomy, their foreign policies follow certain rules peculiar to their personality. Leaders often obsess over one particular historical analogy.

IV. Application to the United States • Opportunity: • Unusually high because of economic, military strength  limits usually encountered where consensus is necessary (i.e. persuasion or “soft power”) • Dominance implies asymmetry: Most threats will be from weaker states and organizations

3. What limits the options open to the American President? • Potential for armed resistance: Major powers can defy US, and even minor powers with nuclear weapons can deter armed attacks • Lack of “soft power” or ability to persuade others that US interests are their own interests • Domestic factors: Organizational resistance, bureaucratic politics, partisanship, public opinion

B. What determines the President’s willingness? • Top priority to key public goods: national security (at least freedom from armed attack) and economic growth • Intelligence: must have accurate assessment of costs and benefits (including political ones) • Need to preserve coalition: Large blocs of voters must be convinced that the President is better than “the other guy” • Personality: Is there a way to make predictions based on this, or is it just a way to cover our mistakes?

The Menu for Choice

The Menu for Choice

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