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Rob Freel NIO Statistics and Research Branch

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Rob Freel NIO Statistics and Research Branch. Northern Ireland Crime Survey ESDS Crime Surveys User Meeting University of Manchester Monday 7 December 2009. Northern Ireland Crime Survey Overview. Overview Background, design and coverage Limitations compared with BCS Main outputs

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Presentation Transcript
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Rob Freel

NIO Statistics and Research Branch

Northern Ireland

Crime Survey

ESDS Crime Surveys User Meeting

University of Manchester

Monday 7 December 2009

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Northern Ireland Crime SurveyOverview
  • Overview
  • Background, design and coverage
  • Limitations compared with BCS
  • Main outputs
  • Experience of crime
  • Perceptions of crime
  • Confidence in policing and justice
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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Background, design and coverage

  • What is the NICS?
  • A representative, continuous, personal interview survey of the experiences and perceptions of crime of some 4,000 adults living in private households throughout Northern Ireland.
  • Based largely on the BCS, with a few Scottish and local ingredients thrown in.
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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Background, design and coverage

  • Frequency and sampling
  • Originally ad hoc basis - 1994/95, 1998, 2001 and 2003/04
  • Continuous basis since January 2005 (sample increased)
    • Enabling more regular / robust performance measurement (KPIs)
  • Simple random sample
    • Land and Property Services property database
    • Target 4,000 completed interviews annually
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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Background, design and coverage

  • Fieldwork and datasets
  • Fieldwork conducted by NISRA interviewers
  • Face-to-face interview with one adult per household
  • CAPI for main interview; CASI for sensitive subjects
  • Main datasets analysed on a financial-year basis
  • KPIs updated on a quarterly, rolling 12-months basis
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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Background, design and coverage

  • Experiences
  • 12-month recall period for victimisation
    • Personal crime (respondents)
    • Property crime (households)
  • Both prevalence and incidence rates
  • Estimated number of incidents
  • Crime reporting rates
  • Experience of illicit drugs
  • Experience of domestic and sexual violence
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“He arrested two kids yesterday. One for drinking battery acid, the other was eating fireworks. He charged one and let the other off!”

Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Background, design and coverage

  • Perceptions
  • Crime levels and anti-social behaviour
  • ‘Fear of crime’
    • worry about crime and personal safety
    • risk of victimisation
    • quality of life
  • Confidence in policing and justice
  • Harm caused by organised crime
  • Night-time economy
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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Limitations compared with BCS

  • Limitations compared with BCS
  • Smaller sample size - a tenth of the size of the BCS
  • Fewer topics – sample not large enough to split
  • Wider confidence intervals – low prevalence crimes, sub-sample analyses
  • Response rate – lower than BCS (different calculation methods used)
  • Fewer statisticians / no academic involvement
  • No archiving to date – but we’re still working on it!
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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Main outputs

  • Main outputs
  • Two National Statistics outputs
    • ‘Experience of crime’
    • ‘Perceptions of crime’
  • Additional publications
    • ‘Experience of sexual violence and abuse’
    • ‘Experience of domestic violence’
    • ‘Experience of illicit drugs’
  • Informs policy development / key performance indicators
    • PSA targets
    • Domestic and sexual violence
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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Experience of crime

Overall victimisation (prevalence) rates: Northern Ireland and England & Wales

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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Experience of crime

Incidence rates per 10,000 adults / households:

NICS 2008/09 and BCS 2008/09

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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Experience of crime

Level of crime in Northern Ireland: NICS v recorded crime

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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Perceptions of crime

Changes in crime levels: NICS 2007/08 and BCS 2007/08

A. National levelB. Local area

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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Perceptions of crime

Worry about crime: NICS 2007/08 and BCS 2007/08

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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Perceptions of crime

Risk of victimisation: NICS 2007/08 and BCS 2007/08

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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Confidence in policing and justice

Confidence in policing: SR2004 & CSR07 NIO PSA Targets

  • The police provide an ordinary day-to-day service
  • The police do a very / fairly good job
  • The police treat Catholics and Protestants equally
  • The Policing Board is independent of the police
  • The Policing Board helps the police do a good job
  • The Police Ombudsman is independent of the police
  • The Police Ombudsmanhelps the police do a good job
  • COMPOSITE MEASURE

Police

Police accountability arrangements

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SR 2004

CSR 2007

Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Confidence in policing and justice

Overall confidence in the police and police accountability

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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Confidence in policing and justice

Confidence in local police: NICS 2007/08 and BCS 2007/08

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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Confidence in policing and justice

Community engagement (CSR07): NICS and BCS

*BCS overall confidence rating has been generated for comparability purposes only.

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Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Confidence in policing and justice

Confidence in the CJS (CSR07): NICS and BCS

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Rob Freel

NIO Statistics and Research Branch

Questions?

[email protected]

www.nio.gov.uk/index/statistics-research/publications.htm

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