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FARMERS’ PERCEPTION ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY-Varna Murali and Allan Thomas- Kerala

FARMERSu2019 PERCEPTION ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY- Varna Murali, PhD Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala<br><br>Climate variability and associated hardships are a major concern at global, national and state level. Assessing farmers' perceptions of climatic variability could aid in the development of pro-farmer climate policy, mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable agriculture measures. Adopting an integrated approach to measuring farmers' perceptions on climate variability, as well as their effects, is essential for effective policymaking toward food security and farmer well-being.

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FARMERS’ PERCEPTION ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY-Varna Murali and Allan Thomas- Kerala

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  1. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 1

  2. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 1 2 Source: The New Indian Express, 22 May 2020 Source: Mansfield News Journal, 22June 2019 3 2 Source: Indiatimes.com, 9September 2018

  3. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Farmers responded…. Source: Krishi Jagaran, 6 May 2019 Source: odishatv.in, 6 December 2021 3

  4. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Source: The Indian Express, 18 February 2019 Source: Hindustan Times, 22 August 2018 4

  5. Varna Murali 2021-21-011 Dept. of Agricultural Extension Dr. Allan Thomas Professor & Chairman Kerala Agricultural University 5 Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU

  6. Why this topic? Concepts of climate variability and perception Dimensions of perception Farmers’ perception on climate variability and its impacts Determinants of farmers’ perception on climate variability Conclusion Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 6

  7. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 7

  8. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Source: The Economist 8

  9. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 9 Source: The Guardian, 3 October 2022

  10. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Source: WWF 10 Source: Al Jazeera, 29 November 2021

  11. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Source: WHO, 21 November 2022 11

  12. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Source: Hindustan Times, 25 August 2021 12

  13. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Changes in Climate: Trends in World, India, Kerala India Kerala World • Temperature of warmest day- risen by 0.63 °C • Temperature of the coldest night- risen by 0.4 °C • Decline in Summer monsoon precipitation –6% (Source: Ministry Sciences, 2020) Professor, KAU • Increase temperature - 0.43°C to 1.92°C • Increase in minimum temperature - 0.66°C to 2.17 °C • Increase in rainfall - 166 mm to 1434 mm. (Source: CWRDM, 2019) in maximum • Global Temperature (GMST) was 1.15 ± 0.13 °C warmer than the baseline (1850-1900). Mean Surface pre-industrial of Earth (Source: WMO, 2022) Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- 13

  14. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Source: Mathrubhumi Source: Times of India 14 Source: The news Minute Source: The Indian Express

  15. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Kerala Floods, 2018 Source: cnn.com Source: downtoearth.org.in Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 15 Source: Vatican News Source: bbc.com

  16. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Kerala Floods: Impact on Agriculture How Kerala floods Impacted Agriculture Productive sectors (Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries) suffered losses and damages Crops- 88% of total loss and damages to the sector Fisheries- 2% of total loss and damages Livestock- 10% of total loss and damages Total effects of Kerala floods on Agriculture – ₹7154 crore The average soil erosion rate increased by 80% 16 Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (Floods and Landslides) report, 2018

  17. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Source: The Hindu, 23 July 2022 Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU Source: The Hindu, 22 October 2022 17 Source: Deshabhimani, 22 October 2022

  18. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 World leaders Climate finance Climate crisis Adaptation Climate action 18

  19. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 “The global climate fight will be won or lost in this crucial decade – on our watch. So let‟s fight together– and let's win. For the 8 billion members of our human family – and for generations to come.” ANTÓNIO GUTERRES, United Nations Secretary-General, November 22 19

  20. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 20

  21. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Source: WMO, 2022 Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 21

  22. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Climate Variability Climate describes the average weather conditions particular location and over a long period of time. - WMO The quantity or fact of being variable i.e. likely to change often. - Cambridge Dictionary for a Climate Variability The average course or condition of the weather at a place usually over a period of years as exhibited by temperature, wind velocity, and precipitation. - Merriam-Webster Dictionary Variability describes how far apart data points lie from each other and from the center of a distribution. - Bhandari, 2020 22

  23. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Climate variability Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events. Internal Variability Climate Variability External Variability 23 IPCC, 2018

  24. Climate Variability vs Climate Change Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 24 Source: UCAR, Center for Science Education

  25. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Climate Change vs Climate Variability Climate Change Climate Variability Differences seasonal and annual values from that of expected. of monthly, Long temperatures patterns - UN term shifts and in weather Extended period of time (decades to millions of years) Short term variations Variation of weather within the context of long term average condition. Changes for few years and back to almost normal. Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 25 Example Example

  26. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 26

  27. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 27

  28. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Source: TAR Climate Change 2001 Report Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 28

  29. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Source: TAR Climate Change 2001 Report Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 29

  30. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Source: TAR Climate Change 2001 Report Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 30

  31. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 31

  32. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 It’s early Oh! It’s late 6:00 AM B A Perceive things in a different way Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 32

  33. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 “The Young Girl- Old woman” Young Girl Old Woman 33

  34. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 A process whereby an individual receives stimuli through the various senses and interprets them. – Kollat et al. (1970) The process through which our senses organize and interpret information received in order to form an understanding of the environment. - Van den Ban and Hawkins (1998) An act of being conscious of one’s surroundings through sensory experiences, and it indicates a person’s ability to understand.- Nwakile et al. (2020) 34

  35. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 “A belief or opinion, often held by many people and based on how things seem”. - Cambridge Dictionary 35

  36. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Linking farmers‟ perception on climate variability and impacts Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 36

  37. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Experiences Beliefs Causes Agency Awareness Conceptual understandings Consequences 37 Dennett, 1996; Madhuri and Sharma, 2020; van Valkengoed et al., 2021

  38. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Perception Reality Interaction Affect Moral and Mental Regulation • Moving on their own • Seeing & hearing the world around them • Feeling temperature • Feeling panic • Feeling stress • Reasoning logically • Deliberating acting • Communicating verbally before 38 (Malle et al., 2019)

  39. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Perception on Climate Variability Other Precipitation Patterns Temperature Patterns Meteorological Variables Extreme Events 39

  40. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Perception of farmers on changes in precipitation pattern • Delayed onset of monsoon 1 • Decrease in rainfall 2 • Erratic rainfall 3 • Decreased rainy days 4 • Decreased snowfall 5 • Early withdrawal of monsoon 6 • Intense rainfall 7 • Change in snowfall timing 8 40 Funk et al., 2020 ; Jha and Gupta, 2021 & Datta et al., 2022,

  41. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Perception of farmers on changes in temperature pattern • Increasing average temperature 1 • Rise in summer temperature 2 • Increase in the hot summer months 3 • Increase in winter temperature 4 • Decrease in the spanning of winter season 5 Ayal and Filho, 2017; Saediman et al., 2020 & Datta et al., 2022 41

  42. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 42

  43. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Distress Lack of enough food and water Yield Loss Climate Variability Farmers’ Debt Burden Economic loss Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 43

  44. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Behaviour Response Stimulus No repayment of loan Yield Loss Reactive Behaviour Agitation Suicides Proactive Behaviour Crop insurance 44 (Thorndike, n. d.)

  45. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 45

  46. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Determinants of farmers‟ perceptions of climate variability, mitigation and adaptation strategies in the central highlands of Kenya (Mairura et al., 2021) • Farmers reported reducing precipitation and season lengths and increasing temperatures. • Environmental determinants are critical predictors for climate perceptions. • Use of soil and technologies were linked to perception of climate variability. water conservation 46

  47. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Determinants of farmers‟ perceptions of climate variability Variable Socio-economic determinants Gender Education Marital status Age Farming experience Household size Dependency ratio Crop diversification Occupation is agriculture Farmer engaged in off-farm activities Remittance Arable farm size TLU P value Variable P value Hired labour NS NS NS NS NS NS NS NS NS NS 0.050* NS 0.038* <0.001** Mairura et al., 2021 Land tenure NS Per-capita arable land NS Institutional determinants Group membership 0.001** Credit access 0.007* Training on agriculture 0.001** Extension visits 0.037* Environmental Determinants Farm slope 0.048* Distance to market (km) NS Perception of soil fertility status 0.014* Ms. Varna Murali PhD Scholar-KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas- Professor, KAU 47

  48. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Gender Dimensions of Farmers‟ Perceptions and Knowledge on Climate Change in Teso Sub- Region, Eastern Uganda (Kisauzi et al., 2012) • There was no significant difference in perceptions regarding changes on all climate parameters between men and women. • Exception- Women were more likely to perceive increased compared to men. • Findings seem to indicate a link between perceptions and gender roles/activities. • Sex was found to be the sole determinant of climate change knowledge. drought frequency 48

  49. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Farmers‟ perception on causes, indicators and determinants of climate change in northern Ethiopia: Implication for developing adaptation strategies -Tesfahunegn et al., 2016 • Significantly higher farmer respondents perceived the main causes of climate change. • Developed a successful logistic regression model • The model identified determinant variables of farmers’ perception on climate change • Farmers’ socioeconomic, institutional attributes perception on climate change. farm and their influence 49

  50. Ms. Varna Murali – Ph D Scholar, KAU and Dr. Allan Thomas, Professor, KAU- Kerala- 2022 Variable Wald Probability Variable Wald Probability Household attributes Age Gender Wealth Education Family size (household size) Farm attributes Land size Land tenure (secured) Off-farm activities Access to water for irrigation Access to rainfed agriculture Experience on soil management Experience on water harvesting structure Livestock ownership size Biophysical variables Change in temperature Change in rainfall (amount, duration, distribution) Experience on drought frequency Change in diseases and pests Changeintrendof croptypesgrown Change in land use type Changes in vegetation species Soil characteristics (fertile soil) Institutional variables Access to weather forecast and climate information Knowledge of local early warning signs Access to extension services Member of local association 0.021 0.032 0.21 1.074 0.045 0.068 0.174 0.062 0.030* 0.561 3.636 0.040* 4.472 0.376 0.755 5.309 0.613 0.781 0.706 0.035* 0.063 0.058 0.021* 0.076 0.063 0.057 0.417 0.279 1.073 0.624 7.429 5.940 0.115 0.065 0.072 0.080 0.001** 0.004** 1.244 0.079 3.960 0.023* 6.043 0.003** 4.836 0.441 0.038* 0.261 0.021 0.063 Tesfahunegn et al., 2016 50

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