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Is the Sky the Limit in Track and Field: Answers in Measurement and Evaluation? Yuanlong Liu Department of Health, Physical Education and Recreation Western Michigan University 2009 Who am I? 2009 ???? B.C Introduction Motto? Faster Higher Stronger

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is the sky the limit in track and field answers in measurement and evaluation

Is the Sky the Limit in Track and Field: Answers in Measurement and Evaluation?

Yuanlong Liu

Department of Health, Physical Education and Recreation

Western Michigan University

2009

introduction

2009

???? B.C

Introduction

Motto?

Faster

Higher

Stronger

Men now run 40 sec. faster in 1500m run and jump 54 centimeters higher in high jump than one hundred years ago

introduction4
Introduction
  • Human being has been running faster and jumping higher through the would
  • Whether the improvement trend would continue and when is the end?
  • Can M&E specialists help?
richest data
Richest Data
  • One hundred more years world annual best performances
  • Best world athletes‘ performances
  • Male & Female
  • Races & Regions
track and field performances past and present continue

118

116

114

112

110

Time (Sec)

108

800m

106

104

102

100

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

Year

Track and Field Performances: Past and Present(continue)
  • World best performances

Because of the asymptotic trend, the general performances

trend would not have much space for improvement in the

new century

what can m e specialists do
What Can M&E Specialists Do?
  • Linear regression model
  • Non-linear regression model
  • What else?
results of regression models
Results of regression models
  • Linear model
  • The nonlinear regression models
    • the exponential model was the best fitting model in all the selected events.
    • An asymptotic level has been achieved in all the selected events
results of regression models continue
Results of regression models(continue)
  • the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) in time-series analysis were used to fit the data
    • An ARIMA(0.0.0) model was identified for the last two decades data.
so no new world record
So, No New World Record?
  • Any ideas?
  • How about weather forecasting model?
  • Random sampling model
    • Assuming true score mean of the top performances now stabilized
      • Tested on men’s 1500m (foster &Stuart procedure)
      • Records are set up by outliers
    • A Monte Carlo program to estimate future records and waiting times
      • Extreme value theory, utilizing an exponential distribution, was used to model the ordered extreme performances and generate new world records
    • History has shown us to be very close with the date and the records
conclusions
Conclusions?
  • No
  • The future holds surprising changes, in equipment, in technology, in performance enhancing drugs, in social and economic status, etc.
  • It is true that predicting future tack and field performances is good fun, and probably about as exact as some the uses of statistics and mathematics is put to elsewhere