Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling

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  1. Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling By Jay M. Ver Hoef National Marine Mammal Lab 7600 Sand Point Way, NE Seattle, WA 98115 jay.verhoef@noaa.gov

  2. Model Averaging

  3. Change of Support

  4. Model Selection Which one would AIC choose?

  5. How Do We Use Probability?

  6. Are Models Correct? y x “All models are wrong. We make tentative assumptions about the real world which we know are false but which we believe may be useful.”- George Box 1976

  7. Conclusions • Do not quench your inspiration and your imagination; do not become the slave of your model. Vincent van Gogh • A good model can advance fashion by ten years. Yves Saint Laurent • When I model I pretty much go blank. You can't think too much or it doesn't work. • Paulina Porizkova • A theory has only the alternative of being right or wrong. A model has a third possibility: it may be right, but irrelevant. • Manfred Eigen