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CETERIS PARIBUS SPATIAL COMPLEXITY SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM

CETERIS PARIBUS SPATIAL COMPLEXITY SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM. Peter Nijkamp 28 November 2006 “As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.”

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CETERIS PARIBUS SPATIAL COMPLEXITY SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM

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  1. CETERIS PARIBUS SPATIAL COMPLEXITY SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM Peter Nijkamp 28 November 2006 “As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.” (Albert Einstein) Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research

  2. A new challenge • What is the space-economy? • First law of geography (Tobler) • Gravity law (Newton) • Simplicity versus complexity Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research

  3. Ceteris paribus and the space-economy • Complex discovery tour and simple assumptions • Cf. maps and models • Abstraction • Ceteris paribus (1311!) • Marshall’s partial equilibrium analysis • Partial cause-effect relationships (Black Box) Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research

  4. Spatial interaction in open systems • Space time interaction • Spatio-temporal autocorrelation • Connectivity in network structures • Evolution and dissipative structures (Prigogine) • Endogeneity and causality specification • Complex spatial dynamics and ceteris paribus Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research

  5. Spacial-economic complexity • Principles of complexity theory • Path dependency versus feedbacks • Bifurcation, catastrophe, chaos, synergetics • Complex solution trajectories • Drivers: resilience sustainability evolutionary principles - Volterra-Lotka - predator-prey - May - symbiosus - niche - self-organisation Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research

  6. Spacial-economic complexity (2) • Search for behaviourial paradigm - optimizer - bounded rationality - learning principles (survival) - simulation “Learning is …..a growth, where every act of knowledge develops the learner, thus making him capable of constituting ever more and more complex objectivities.” (Husserl) Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research

  7. Principles of spacial-economic equilibrium • Mathematical rigor ‘rigor mortis’ • CGE • Lösch Isard Leontief • Kaldor’s Okun Memorial lecture • Interactive economics? Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research

  8. The methodology of spatial economics revisited • Evolutionary ecology • Specification analysis • Artificial intelligence - computational neural networks - self-organised criticality - adaptive learning models • Counterfactional analysis • Value transfer / meta-analysis • Micro-behavioural basis • Modelling as cognitive science? “The mecca of the economist lies in economic biology.” (Alfred Marshall, 1896) Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research

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