Dr Sean Weaver, Principal, Carbon Partnership sean@carbonpartnership

1. Global Issues: A Forest Story From An Educator-Practitioner Enviroschools National Hui Rotorua, November 2012 Dr Sean Weaver, Principal, Carbon Partnership sean@carbonpartnership.co.nz www.carbonpartnership.co.nz

2. Global Issues: A Forest Story From An Educator-Practitioner Climate change

3. Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation Learn to live with a different climate 2. Adaptation Be an international role model 3. Negotiation Climate change

4. Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation

5. 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year 7 Flat path 1962 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation Historical carbon emissions with two potential pathways for the future Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations Currently predicted path Historical Emissions Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

6. Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation Historical carbon emissions with two potential pathways for the future Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations 14 Currently predicted path Billions of tons carbon emitted per year Historical Emissions 7 Flat path Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations 1954 2054 2004

7. 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year 7 1954 2054 2004 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation Historical carbon emissions with two potential pathways for the future Historical Emissions

8. Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation

9. Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation

10. Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation

11. Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation

12. Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation

13. Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation

14. Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation

15. 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year 7 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation

16. 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year Currently predicted path 7 Flat path 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations Emissions to be avoided Stabilisation Triangle 7 Billion Tons carbon per year over 50 years 200 Billion Tons of avoided emissions Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

17. 7 ‘Wedges’ are needed to build the Stabilisation Triangle 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year Currently predicted path 1 ‘Wedge’ Avoids 1 Billion tons of carbon emissions per year by 2062 7 Flat path 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations Emissions to be avoided Stabilisation Triangle 200 Billion Tons of avoided emissions Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

18. 7 ‘Wedges’ are needed to build the Stabilisation Triangle 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year Currently predicted path 1 ‘Wedge’ Avoids 1 Billion tons of carbon emissions per year by 2062 7 Flat path 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations Emissions to be avoided Stabilisation Triangle 200 Billion Tons of avoided emissions Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

19. 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year Currently predicted path 7 Flat path 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations Stabilisation Triangle Energy efficiency Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

20. 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year Currently predicted path 7 Flat path 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations Stabilisation Triangle Fossil Carbon Management Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

21. 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year Currently predicted path 7 Flat path 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations Biofuels, Hydrogen Stabilisation Triangle Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

22. 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year Currently predicted path 7 Flat path 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations Renewable electricity generation Stabilisation Triangle Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

23. 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year Currently predicted path 7 Flat path 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations Greater share of renewables Stabilisation Triangle Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

24. 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year Currently predicted path 7 Flat path 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations 50 fold expansion of wind energy Stabilisation Triangle Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

25. 14 Billions of tons carbon emitted per year Currently predicted path 7 Flat path 2062 2012 Cut greenhouse gas emissions 1. Mitigation The Stabilisation Wedges concept turns an overwhelming Herculean Challenge into seven monumental tasks Towards Tripling CO2 Concentrations Forest Management Stabilisation Triangle Avoid Doubling CO2 Concentrations

26. REDD+ This is what I do Forest Management

27. REDD+

28. What is ? Introduction To REDD+ What’s the big deal ? What’s new about REDD+ ? What can we do ?

29. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation What is ? Introduction To REDD+

30. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation

31. CO2 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation CO2 Oxygen Sugar C Wood Carbon Removals Carbon Stored Carbon Emissions

32. CO2 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation “Drain” CO2 “Tap” Forest Carbon Carbon Removals Carbon Stored Carbon Emissions

33. CO2 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation “Drain” CO2 “Tap” Forest Carbon Carbon Removals Carbon Stored Carbon Emissions

34. CO2 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation “Drain” CO2 “Tap” Forest Carbon Carbon Removals Carbon Stored Carbon Emissions

35. CO2 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation “Drain” CO2 “Tap” Forest Carbon Carbon Removals Carbon Stored Carbon Emissions

36. CO2 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation “Drain” CO2 “Tap” Forest Carbon Carbon Removals Carbon Stored Carbon Emissions

37. CO2 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation “Drain” CO2 “Tap” Forest Carbon Carbon Removals Carbon Stored Carbon Emissions

38. Respiration Photosynthesis + + + energy + + + 6H O 6H O 6CO 6CO C H O C H O energy 6O 6O 6 6 12 12 6 6 2 2 2 2 2 2 CO2 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation “Drain” CO2 “Tap” Carbon Removals Carbon Stored Carbon Emissions

39. Respiration Photosynthesis + + + energy + + + 6H O 6H O 6CO 6CO C H O C H O energy 6O 6O 6 6 12 12 6 6 2 2 2 2 2 2

40. What is ? Introduction To REDD+ What’s the big deal ? What’s new about REDD+ ? What can we do ?

41. What’s the big deal ?

42. Cropland Forest What’s the big deal ?

44. CO2 concentration at 2100 (lower end projections) 500 Current CO2 concentration 400 300 10 5 250 CO2 ppm 0 200 Temp -5 150 -10 100 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Age 100,000 years b.p. Climate and atmospheric history of past 400,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica

45. CO2 concentration at 2100 (lower end projections) 500 Current CO2 concentration 400 Climate and atmospheric history of past 400,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica 300 10 5 250 CO2 ppm 0 200 Temp -5 150 -10 100 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Age 100,000 years b.p.

46. CO2 concentration at 2100 (lower end projections) 500 Current CO2 concentration 400 300 10 5 CO2 250 ppm 0 200 Temp -5 150 -10 100 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Age 100,000 years b.p.

47. CO2 concentration at 2100 (lower end projections) 700 CO2 concentration at 2100 (upper end projections) 500 600 400 Current CO2 concentration 300 10 5 250 CO2 ppm 0 200 Temp -5 150 -10 100 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Age 100,000 years b.p. Global Warming 350ppm Safe level for CO2

48. Sea level rise Cyclone intensity Flooding Drought Ocean acidification Biodiversity decline Global Warming Impacts 350ppm Safe level for CO2 International economy Population growth World oil prices Food security Cross cutting issues:

49. Sea level rise Cyclone intensity Flooding Drought Ocean acidification Biodiversity decline Global Warming Impacts 350ppm Safe level for CO2 International economy Population growth World oil prices Food security Cross cutting issues:

50. Sea level rise Cyclone intensity Flooding Drought Ocean acidification Biodiversity decline • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 2007) (AR5 due 2013) • Three volumes: • Scientific Basis • Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability • Mitigation of Climate Change • Each Volume has: • Summary for policy makers • Technical summary • Full Report • There is also a Synthesis Report