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ATMS 211 Climate and Climate Change Winter 2008

ATMS 211 Climate and Climate Change Winter 2008 . Prof. Thornton T.A. Brian Smoliak. Times and Locations Lectures M - Th: 10:30 – 11:20 JHN 075 Disc: F 10:30 – 11:20/11:30 – 12:20 MGH 389 (AA) MGH 241 (AB). Who Am I?. Prof. in Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

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ATMS 211 Climate and Climate Change Winter 2008

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  1. ATMS 211 Climate and Climate ChangeWinter 2008 Prof. ThorntonT.A. Brian Smoliak Times and Locations Lectures M - Th: 10:30 – 11:20 JHN 075 Disc: F 10:30 – 11:20/11:30 – 12:20 MGH 389 (AA) MGH 241 (AB)

  2. Who Am I? Prof. in Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences Ph.D. in Atmospheric Chemistry Scientific Interests: Natural and polluted air chemistry How pollution affects climate How climate change affects pollution

  3. Contact Info • After lecture • Office hours (TBD) or special appointment • Message board (see web page) • Email/Phone*

  4. Course Goals Introduce you to climate science and the scientific process Give you tools to understand and critically evaluate modern environmental problems

  5. What this course is/isn’t about YES: Current scientific theories and observations about the workings of Earth’s climate. i.e. what, how, why? NO: morals, philosophies, politics, etc

  6. Course Overview • The Climate System (Present) • Earth’s Energy Balance • Earth’s Atmosphere • Regional Climates • Climate Changes (Past-Present) • Change and Feedbacks • The Human Influence • Natural Variations • Global Warming (Future) • Evidence • What can we expect? • Mitigation Approaches

  7. Grading Policy • Exams and Project ~ 85% • homework (15%): old exam problems • clicker questions: worth ~ 1 exam! • Plagiarism/Working Together • see UW policy on plagiarism • discussions are encouraged • on your own for exams • Grading Method • mean 2.8 – 3.2 (B- to B) • NO LATE HOMEWORKS • NO MAKEUP EXAMS or QUIZZES*

  8. Course Guidelines and Philosophy • UW Credit Hours • 2hrs outside per credit hr • Lectures/Discussion • FOR YOUR BENEFIT! • Stop me, ask questions! • Comfortable Atmosphere • Let me know immediately

  9. How To Do Well • COME TO CLASS • TAKE GOOD NOTES • REVIEW YOUR NOTES • TEST YOURSELF • RELAX GET YOUR QUESTIONS ANSWERED

  10. MATH Math is the language of the natural sciences You will see and learn to use a number of equations Think positively! This course and your grades are based on concepts (not mathematical ability)

  11. This Week: The climate system Read Chapter 1 Due Friday (in section): 200 word synopsis of a recent news article on climate change 200 word description of the climate of an area you’ve lived (ideally besides Seattle). Discussion activities: math and geography surveys, what is/isn’t climate change?

  12. Graphic Analysis Exercise • What are the x-y pairs in each plot (3 total)? • 2. What are the units for each axis (1 x, 3 y’s)? • 3. Do you see correlations, or lack thereof, where? • 4. What do you find interesting/important? • 5. What do you find misleading or confusing?

  13. Summary of Graphic Analysis

  14. Summary of Graphic Analysis

  15. Summary of Graphic Analysis These measurements were made by examining air trapped in an ice core drilled at Vostok in Antarctica. How do you measure past Temperature in ice? Is this just representative of Antarctica’s climate?

  16. Announcements • Message board • Extra credit opportunities • Lecture visuals

  17. Today – Defining the problems • Climate vs. Weather • Climate Change (a definition) • Global Warming • By way of “myths and misconceptions”

  18. Myths and Misconceptions (1) “Its 70o today, in January? Global warming is real.” “Hurricane Katrina was the strongest hurricane in decades. Global warming must be real.”

  19. Weather vs. Climate “Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get.” – Mark Twain

  20. What do we mean by climate change? Long-term variation in an average property, related to weather, that is significant compared to natural variability, or an alteration in the variability.

  21. Recent climate change 15 13.2 From Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 2007.

  22. Weather Change vs. Climate Change • A single hurricane is an example of weather. • An increase in the number per year or average strength is a climate problem. In the eye of Hurricane Katrina Photo courtesy of Prof Bob Houze’s group

  23. Myths and Misconceptions (2) “The decrease in pirates anti-correlates with global temperature. Thus, global warming is caused by fewer pirates (or it is causing there to be fewer pirates).” Need to have a physical explanation for correlations to be meaningful

  24. Myths and Misconceptions (3) “The recent warming is just part of a natural cycle.”

  25. IPCC—A good course resource Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A consensus document of the scientific community “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (sic) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations” --2007

  26. Increasing CO2 Fig 1-2 from text. Known as “Keeling Curve”.

  27. Increasing CO2 Fig 1-3 from text. Keeling Curve and Ice Core data.

  28. Global Warming vs. Climate Change UN Definition of Global Warming: “A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of the global atmosphere... “

  29. Myths and Misconceptions (4) “Is global warming really such a big deal? A few degrees warmer seems harmless.”

  30. Summary of Graphic Analysis Seattle ice free Tice-no ice ~ -5-8o Seattle under mile of ice

  31. Observed Changes in T, Sea Level, Snow/ice

  32. Predictions of Changes to Come 4 – 6O C increase in global average T is predicted to bring: • A sea level rise of 0.5 – 1.5 feet (or more) by 2100 • Wetter wet regions and drier dry regions • More frequent and more intense heat waves • Stressed drinking and irrigation water supplies (Mtn glaciers) • Nearly all multi-year sea ice gone? 1 meter (3ft) sea level rise - world arctic sea ice graphic 1 meter (3ft) sea level rise - SEUS

  33. WHY? • A goal of this course will be to understand why we should expect such changes • What are the connections between: • Air T and precipitation patterns? • Air T and storms? • Air T and sea level/ice extent

  34. Myths and Misconceptions (5) “The Earth is too large/complex for humans to cause significant environmental change.” “The hole in the ozone layer is increasing, causing global warming.”

  35. Ozone A molecule containing three oxygen atoms found throughout the atmosphere. Plays a role in climate, but the role is complex. The “ozone hole” is NOT the cause of recent warming.

  36. Ozone “Hole”

  37. Summary • Climate: long-term (> 10 yrs!) average of the weather • Climate Change: long-term variation in an average property related to weather or the natural variability of that property • Global Warming: human-induced climate change

  38. Today – Environmental Change Concepts • Determining whether change is significant • Rates of change – Mass/Energy balance • No change

  39. Significant? 15 13.2 From Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 2007.

  40. Recent Changes are Significant

  41. CO2 Rate of Change

  42. Change of CO2 Rate of Change Rates are often not constant in time. 16 ppm 10 yr

  43. Change in the CO2 Rate of Change CO2 is increasing faster and faster (on average!)

  44. Has the CO2 rate of change ever been negative (<0), i.e. has CO2 decreased at any time since 1955? • Yes • No

  45. Because the CO2 rate of change is constant at 1.6 ppm/yr, it will take 175 years to double the preindustrial amount of atmospheric CO2 (280 ppm) • Valid statement • Invalid statement

  46. Summary • Rate of change of Y is the slope of a plot of Y vs time • Rate < 0  quantity is decreasing, Rate > 0  quantity is increasing, Rate = 0  quantity in steady state • Rates of change are often not constant

  47. Announcements • Two short assignments due tomorrow (FRI) in discussion section. • Lecture slides will appear on the course web site weekly. • Office hours determined Monday in class by clicker vote • Tu or Th 11:30 – 12:30 or 4 – 5 pm • Brian (TA): M, Tu, W, or Th 9 – 10 AM • And Tu or Th 5 – 6 pm

  48. Today – Environmental Change Concepts • Rates of Change – what they tell us • Concepts of Mass and Energy Balance • Residence time • Measuring Change in the Past

  49. Change in the CO2 Rate of Change CO2 is increasing faster and faster (on average!)

  50. Summary from Yesterday • Rate of change of Y is the slope of a plot of Y vs time • Rate < 0  quantity is decreasing, Rate > 0  quantity is increasing, Rate = 0  quantity in steady state • Rates of change are often not constant

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