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Op zoek naar een nieuwe orde: het einde van het 55 systeem?

Op zoek naar een nieuwe orde: het einde van het 55 systeem?. “ 1993 was a history-making year in Japanese politics. Our people recovered their status as masters of their political situation. I am very optimistic about the future Japanese capability to handle their political problems. ”

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Op zoek naar een nieuwe orde: het einde van het 55 systeem?

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  1. Op zoek naar een nieuwe orde: het einde van het 55 systeem? “1993 was a history-making year in Japanese politics. Our people recovered their status as masters of their political situation. I am very optimistic about the future Japanese capability to handle their political problems.” (Naoki Tanaka, director of the 21st Century Public Policy Institute)

  2. Change… Ichiro Ozawa in foreign policy making: http://www.iuj.ac.jp/research/wpap017.cfm • Japanese politics in the 1990s: a new context • End of the cold war • Globalization • Recession • Architect of the new • political era: Ozawa Ichiro • Creates new party • 1993 LDP in opposition • LDP regains power http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ichiro_Ozawa

  3. The LDP desintegrates • Miyazawa Kiichi (1991-1993) • Symbol of the old political generation • Recruit scandal (‘89) • Sagawa Kyubin scandal (‘92) • Kanemaru Shin convicted in 1992 for corruption • the end of a political generation and political culture

  4. Miyazawa Kiichi

  5. Struggle within the LDP • Obuchi Keizo vs Ozawa Ichiro • Reforming the election system • Ozawa becomes spokesman for reformers: factions and money barrier for normal political role for Japan • Young generation for Ozawa; older for Obuchi • Ozawa and 40 mp’s reach out to opposition

  6. Miyazawa stumbles • Fails to reform election system • Economic recession worsens • Motion of no-confidence by opposition on 18-6-1993 accepted because of Ozawa’s support • Miyazawa disbands parliament and feels let down

  7. The birth of an anti-LDP coalition: preparations • Masayoshi Takemura also leaves LDP and creates Sakigakeさきがけ • Takemura reaches out to Morihiro Hosokawa’s Nihon Shinto日本新党 • Ozawa creates Shinseito新政党 • Ozawa fears coalition between LDP and Takemura-Hosokawa and starts negotiating with socialists for broad coalition against LDP

  8. The birth of an anti-LDP coalition • Elections on 18-7-1993 • New parties won many seats; LDP lost less than expected (275-223) and main loss with JSP (136-70) • Ozawa disappointed because no majority: choice up to Takemura-Hosokawa: LDP or Ozawa? • Why did socialists join forces with Ozawa? • New election system badly needed; impossible with LDP • Why did Takemura-Hosokawa choose for Ozawa? • Ozawa offered prime minister position to Hosokawa • Takemura had no choice and joined 6 parties in major coalition against LDP

  9. Hosokawa Morihiro

  10. The Hosokawa government • Hosokawa prime minister; Doi speaker; Takemura spokesman • Morihiro Hosokawa: successor of a political dynasty • Opposition from the region • Agenda: • Reform of the election system • Accepted in 3-1994: 300 districts first pasts the post; 200 proportional representation • APL • Hosokawa resigned in march 1994 after 9 months • Coalition divided on article 9: Ozawa wants to change; Takemura opposed to change • End of the coalition in June 1994

  11. Ozawa Ichiro pulls the strings…

  12. The LDP regains power • LDP forms coalition with socialists and Sakigake: unlikely alliance in change for socialist prime minister • Tomiichi Murayama prime minister; Takeshita strong person • LDP considers SPJ as a faction

  13. Murayama Tomiichi

  14. Escalating social crisis • 17-1-1995: Earthquake in Kobe • Late and inadequate reaction • 20-3-1995: Aum Shinrikyo’s sarin gas attack in Tokyo subway • Poor control over religious groups • Socialist party under attack in 1995 higher house elections: maintains 16 from 46 seats • LDP regains full control at the start of 1996 but in a different context: coalitions become norm and transparency required

  15. The economic engine sputters • Ryutaro Hashimoto (1996-1998) • Takeshita faction • Strong and nationalistic • Reformer in Nakasone government • Deep recession: unemployment, bankcrisis, problem of US army bases in Okinawa and first elections according to new system

  16. Hashimoto Ryutaro

  17. Opposition inside and outside the government • Kan Naoto (Sakigake) Minister of Health Care • Hemophilia patients infected with HIV virus • Conflict between Kan and his ministry • Kan disappointed in own party and government: creates DPJ 日本民主党 with Hatoyama Yukio • Right wing alternative to the LDP • 57 mp’s join • LDP 239/500: minority government

  18. Hashimoto as a ‘new leader’ • Deregulation, reform and privatization • Financial system • Economy • Education • Administration (less ministries) • Coalition with Ozawa’s Shinshinto in 9-’97 • Many members return to LDP • Ozawa creates Liberal Party 自由党 • Other members join the DPJ which becomes largest opposition party

  19. Hashimoto’s failure: the final end of the miracle? • 1997: a turning point • East Asian financial crisis • Hokkaido Takushoku Bank • Yamaichi Shoken • Long Term Credit Bank • Hashimoto insecure about which measures to take • Higher House elections in 1998: LDP wins 44 seats in stead of expected 61; DPJ won 47; Com. 23

  20. Obuchi: ‘cold pizza’ or wily diplomat? • Obuchi Keizo (1998-2000) • Obuchi used media well • Wants strong government: coalition with Liberal party • Ozawa’s conditions • Less ministries • Answers in parliament by ministers • 5-1999: 情報公開法 • Mori Yohei: 天皇家の財布

  21. Obuchi Keizo

  22. Another unlikely partner: Komeito • Coalition joined by Komeito in 10-1999 • Sokagakkai • Against constitutional change • For clean government • Initially lower incomes but now elder middle class electorate • 1-4-2000: Ozawa kicked out of coalition • One day later: brain hemorrhage but Obuchi very popular

  23. Nationalism, Russia and blunders • Mori Yoshiro (2000-2001) • Emperor is center • Change constitution to cope with North-Korea • Restore relations with Russia • Nationalism was popular but Mori not • General elections 25-6-2000 • LDP loses majority; DPJ from 95 to 127 • Mori steps back 3-2001

  24. Mori Yoshiro

  25. Koizumi: Japan’s Richard Gere? • Election of a new LDP president in front of Media • Choice between old and new Japan • Yasukuni: Yes! • Change the rules to elect the LDP president • Who is Junichiro Koizumi? • New Japan; new LDP with strong and open leadership (Tanaka, Fukuda and Takenaka)

  26. Koizumi Junichiro Koizumi and anti-terrorist legislation: http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/sais_review/v023/23.1shinoda.html

  27. Real opposition against the LDP • 9-2003: unification of DPJ and LP • General elections of 10-2003 predicted to be ‘the day that the Berlin wall fell’. • Manifest • Koizumi faces problems: Tanaka out; conflict with Nakasone

  28. The start of a new political era? • General elections 9-11-2003 • LDP 247>237 • DPJ 136>177 • SPJ 18>6 • Com. 20>9 • Komeito 31>34 • Komeito important • DPJ real alternative for LDP

  29. Elections in November 2003

  30. Vraag en lectuur volgende week (25 november 2009) • Which post-war Japanese Prime Minister was most influential (domestically and internationally)? • Hoofdstuk 5 en 6

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