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Trends in Higher Education: Internationally, Nationally, State-wide, & Locally. Presentation by: Dr. Leah L. Bornstein and Dr. Kathleen A. Corak Coconino Community College Strategic Planning Retreat September 26, 2007. Theories & Evidence of Global Change Effecting Higher Education.

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Trends in higher education internationally nationally state wide locally

Trends in Higher Education:Internationally, Nationally, State-wide, & Locally

Presentation by: Dr. Leah L. Bornstein and Dr. Kathleen A. Corak Coconino Community CollegeStrategic Planning Retreat

September 26, 2007


Theories evidence of global change effecting higher education

Theories & Evidence of Global Change Effecting Higher Education

  • The World is Flat….T. Friedman

  • Three Billion New Capitalists….C. Prestowitz

  • The Flight of the Creative Class…R. Florida

  • The Experience Economy…..B. Pine & J. Gilmore

  • Etc….


Trends in higher education internationally nationally state wide locally

60

25 to 34

50

45 to 54

40

30

20

10

0

Italy

Japan

Spain

Korea

Poland

Greece

Ireland

Iceland

Austria

France

Mexico

Finland

Turkey

Canada

Norway

Sweden

Belgium

Portugal

Germany

Hungary

Australia

Denmark

Switzerland

Netherlands

Luxembourg

New Zealand

United States

Slovak Republic

Czech Republic

United Kingdom

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults – The U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004


Trends in higher education internationally nationally state wide locally

The Aging U.S. Workforce

Year-to-Year Change in U.S. Population, 2002-2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Trends in higher education internationally nationally state wide locally

Growth in Demand -

Source; Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education


In arizona for every 100 ninth graders

In Arizona, for every 100 ninth graders...

  • 66 graduate from high school

  • 31 enter college

  • 20 are still enrolled by sophomore year

  • 15 of the 100 complete degrees in six years

    NCHEMS Information Center, 2002


Projected growth in supply and demand of workers with some postsecondary education 1998 to 2028

Education Required

Projected Growth in Supply and Demand of Workers With Some Postsecondary Education, 1998 to 2028

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau and National Alliance of Business


Trends in higher education internationally nationally state wide locally

Training, tooling and directing the labor force—what community colleges dowell—into

knowledge workers.


Trends in higher education internationally nationally state wide locally

What are knowledge workers?

… those states that improve opportunities for education and training beyond high school advance their residents' employment prospects and the competitiveness of their overall workforce.

Alan Wagner, Measuring Up Internationally:Developing Skills and Knowledge for the Global Knowledge Economy, National Center for Higher Education and Public Policy, September 2006


Educational attainment percent of adults 25 to 64 with an associates degree or higher 2005

60%

48.7%

46.0%

45.7%

44.6%

44.2%

44.0%

43.7%

43.7%

43.3%

42.8%

42.4%

45%

41.7%

41.3%

40.7%

40.4%

40.1%

38.9%

38.8%

38.6%

38.4%

37.4%

37.4%

37.4%

37.3%

37.2%

37.1%

37.0%

36.6%

36.4%

36.1%

36.0%

35.9%

35.8%

35.3%

33.9%

33.7%

33.6%

33.6%

33.2%

33.2%

33.0%

31.8%

31.2%

30.8%

29.8%

29.0%

28.6%

28.5%

30%

26.8%

26.5%

25.0%

15%

0%

Utah

Iowa

Ohio

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Kansas

Hawaii

Florida

Oregon

Indiana

Nevada

Georgia

Arizona

Virginia

Vermont

Montana

Missouri

Alabama

Arkansas

Colorado

Nebraska

Delaware

Michigan

Maryland

Kentucky

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Oklahoma

Tennessee

New York

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Mississippi

New Jersey

Washington

Connecticut

New Mexico

Rhode Island

Pennsylvania

United States

South Dakota

North Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

North Carolina

South Carolina

New Hampshire

Educational Attainment – Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with an Associates Degree or Higher, 2005

Source: 2005 American Community Survey


Coconino county has relatively high educational attainment

Coconino County has relatively high educational attainment -

U.S. Census, 2006


Trends in higher education internationally nationally state wide locally

  • ARIZONA TRENDS:

  • College in AZ has become less affordable

    • Average Family Net College%

    • IncomeCost Needed

    • $12,000$712759%

    • $26,912$760828%

    • $42,946$801319%


Coconino county has a relatively low income level

Coconino County has a relatively low income level -

U.S. Census, 2006


State and local appropriations for higher education per fte student 2005

14,000

12,354

12,000

11,342

9,666

10,000

9,150

8,602

7,890

7,712

7,641

7,445

8,000

7,240

6,995

6,851

6,768

6,350

6,263

6,169

6,136

6,097

5,982

5,969

5,925

5,911

5,906

5,873

5,844

5,833

5,710

5,687

5,514

5,495

6,000

5,384

5,287

5,282

5,280

5,200

4,934

4,902

4,874

4,854

4,849

4,702

4,691

4,561

4,544

4,319

4,221

4,196

3,873

4,000

3,360

3,296

3,019

2,000

0

Utah

Ohio

Iowa

Illinois

Texas

Idaho

Maine

Nation

Virginia

Hawaii

Indiana

Alaska

Florida

Arizona

Oregon

Kansas

Georgia

Missouri

Nevada

Michigan

Vermont

Alabama

Montana

California

Louisiana

Wyoming

Maryland

Arkansas

Delaware

Kentucky

Colorado

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Nebraska

Mississippi

Tennessee

Oklahoma

Washington

New York

Pennsylvania

Connecticut

New Jersey

West Virginia

Rhode Island

New Mexico

South Dakota

North Dakota

South Carolina

Massachusetts

North Carolina

New Hampshire

State and Local Appropriations for Higher Education Per FTE Student ($), 2005

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers


Trends in higher education internationally nationally state wide locally

  • STUDENTS ENROLLED IN TWO-YEAR COLLEGES IN ARIZONA IN 2004:

  • 217,597 Students or 53% of all Higher

  • Education Enrollments.

  • Community Colleges are the “College of Choice” for the Majority of Arizonans.


Ccc operates with a low tax rate

CCC Operates With A Low Tax Rate -


Trends in higher education internationally nationally state wide locally

  • An October 2005 USA Today survey found two of Arizona's three public universities have led the nation in tuition increases since 2002. The University of Arizona (UA) ranked first with a 74.1 percent increase, and Arizona State University (ASU) ranked fourth with a 70.4 percent increase.

  • If recent history is any indication, average in-state tuition could jump from $4,500 to nearly $10,000--roughly a quarter of a typical Arizona family's annual household income--in just a few years.

    Vicki Murray, School Reform News, Date: June 1, 2006


Arizona affordability focus on financial aid

Arizona & Affordability – Focus on Financial Aid

  • Through 2005-2006 (last year for comparative data) --

    Need-based aid:

    • $2.8 million (43rd nationally)

    • 23% increase over ten years (43rd nationally)

    • $8.02 per Undergraduate FTE (49th nationally)

      • 14th of 15 states in the WICHE Region

      • WICHE average: $170

      • National average: $415

  • Arizonans rely more heavily on loans:

    • Average loan amount in AZ – $3,762

    • Average loan amount in top states – $2,619

  • State investment in need-based financial aid as compared to the federal investment.

    • Arizona/Federal Investment: 0%

    • Top States/Federal Investment: 89%

Survey Report on State-Sponsored Student Financial Aid, 2006-07, National Association of StateGrant and Aid Program and Measuring Up, 2006,2006, NCPPHE


To summarize

To Summarize…..

  • Increased globalization of workforce

  • Decreased #s of 55+ generation in the workforce

  • Large AZ high school drop out problem coupled with high growth in Hispanic h. s. grad #s

  • Increased workforce need over next 40 yrs of folks w/ some post-2nd

  • Disparity in AZ educational attainment compared to County

  • CCC District is high attainment and lower-than-average income

  • AZ appropriations to HE in the upper middle with less support to community colleges

  • AZ citizens pay increasing % of their income for post-2nd & rely heavily on loans

    In Addition…..

  • National Spellings report focuses on Access, Accountability & Affordability


So how does ccc position itself to address these demographics and challenges

So? How does CCC position itself to address these demographics and challenges?

  • How do the demographic shifts in learners effect how we program? competitively market? competitively recruit?

  • How do these demographics effect our hiring practices? How do we become more competitive?

  • W/ AZ low in ed attainment & Coconino County expecting a drop in attainment, how does CCC prepare/respond?

  • W/ 75% of new jobs requiring some post-2nd & only 35% of US (25-34 yrs) have 2+ yrs of post-2nd, how does CCC respond?

  • W/ CCC District in low income & current high attainment, how does CCC respond?

  • How does CCC position itself so that our limited financial resources are maintained and strengthened?

  • Others?????


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