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2. Definitions Industry • Sellers or providers Market • Customers SEGMENT CUSTOMER CUSTOMER CUSTOMER CUSTOMER CUSTOMER CUSTOMER MARKET INDUSTRY COMPETITOR COMPETITOR COMPETITOR SECTOR COMPETITOR COMPETITOR Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

3. Definitions (cont’d) Market Size • Total number of products or services that an industry sector is able to sell to a specific segment of the market • Within a certain timeframe (e.g., 1 year) • Volume (e.g., shipments, weight, single units)Value (e.g., dollars) Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

4. New Market or New Segment? DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCTS COMMODITIES So new to the world perhaps a market does not even exist yet. Well-organized exchange and structured data likely available. Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

5. Segmentation PRODUCT GROUP Total Addressable Market PRODUCT PRODUCT SEGMENT SEGMENT SEGMENT SEGMENT CUSTOMER CUSTOMER POPULATION GROUP Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

6. Markets: Total, Sales, Target Total Addressable Real World Constraints Geography Competition Sales channels S Sales Addressable Adapted from Blank& Dorf, 2012

7. Markets: Total, Sales, Target Total Addressable Priority Scenario Most desirable Most feasible S Sales Addressable Target Adapted from Blank& Dorf, 2012

8. Framework:Three Aspects to Market Sizing SEGMENTS ESTIMATION MODEL DATA SOURCES This slide deck has been made available under a creative commons license to reuse, remix, repurpose for non-commercial classroom uses, with source attribution.

9. What’s an Estimation Model? Pre & post public market switch year Birth cohorts # of primary shots/year Market size (units) Vaccination coverage Toddler cohorts = x x Private channel % Public channel % + # of booster shots/year Child cohorts Private channel % Public channel % Adolescent cohorts Price per country for one primary dose + Market size (value in USD) Price per country for one booster dose Market size (units) Price for one booster dose in DEFENSE scenario + Price for one primary dose in DEFENSE scenario Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

10. Two Approaches Top-down Bottom-up Bottom-up estimates approach the true value from below, by summing up known supply data from market participants. ProOften considered more conservative(accounts for capacity limitations of the industry). ConUsually requires primary research, therefore often expensive to do. Top-down estimates approach the true value from above, by starting with broad indicators which are narrowed down using assumptions. ProOften a quicker and easier way to size a market Con Tends to give too high estimates Statistic Assumption Statistic Assumption Total market size Data point Data point Segment total Segment total Total market size Supplier 3 Supplier 4 Supplier 1 Supplier 2 Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

11. Secondary Market Research Types • Existing Surveys • Market Research Reports • Industry Reports • Business News • Competitive Landscape • Government Sources guides.lib.purdue.edu/mcomputing

12. Secondary Market Research Types • The primary elements involve: • understanding how the industry operates • what influences it internally: the market • what influences it externally: the consumers guides.lib.purdue.edu/mcomputing

13. Existing Surveys • Information usually a year old • Taken from primary research and usually aggregated • Mostly consumer based guides.lib.purdue.edu/mcomputing

14. Existing Surveys • Census, Pew, Time-use studies • Bizminer • Mediamark Reporter • SimplyMap • Business Analyst Online ESRI guides.lib.purdue.edu/mcomputing

15. Triangulation Estimate A (e.g., primary research) Ideally, all estimates are independent of each other Estimate C (e.g., based on macroeconomic indicators) Estimate B (e.g., product complements wheremarket sizes are known) Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012