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Hull claims 2012

Future Scenarios of Marine Insurance Alessandro Morelli 8th October 2012 Shipping & The Law - Naples. Hull claims 2012. Costa Concordia: H.M. 395M € Exmar: technological element of risks Stolt Valor: severe fire risks on tankers. Hull – Gross Ultimate Loss Ratio

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Hull claims 2012

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  1. Future Scenarios of Marine InsuranceAlessandro Morelli8th October 2012Shipping & The Law - Naples

  2. Hull claims 2012 Costa Concordia: H.M. 395M € Exmar: technological element of risks Stolt Valor: severe fire risks on tankers Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  3. Hull – Gross Ultimate Loss Ratio Underwriting years 1996 to 2011 2012:strong total loss impact (on uw years 2011 & 2012) Costa Concordia:Carnival Corporation & PLC website: 508+17 MUSD from H&M insurance.(2Q financial report, issued 02.07.2012) ...and more total lossesin excess of 30 MUSD did incur 1st half 2012 (partly attaching to uw year 2011). Source: IUMI 2012 Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  4. Corpi Mercato italiano – Loss Ratio lorda u/y 2011 at 31/3/2012 Sinistri pagati+riservati / Premi lordi Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  5. Attritional losses impacts Source. Braemar/Salvage Association 5 Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  6. Shipping Market level recovered as economy improved, but has slipped back in 2011 and first half of 2012 Source: Clarkson Research, August 2012 9/21/2014 6 Clarksea Index Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  7. Insurers facing Challenges: 1 • Increasing exposures and accumulations of risks: • Large cruise ships • Ultra large container carriers and their cargo •  need to understand new exposures Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  8. New risks scenarios: cruise ships • "Oasis of the Seas" / "Allure of the Seas“ (Royal Caribbean) • 5.400/6.400 pax (2.700 cabins) • 2.100 crew • Length 362 m • Breadth: 60 m • Draught: 9,3 m • Height: 72 m • GT 225.000 Oasis of the Seas (2.700) vs. Costa Atlantica (1.000/85.619). Costa Concordia: 1.500/114.000 Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  9. New risks scenarios: container ships 18.000 TEU’s 440 mt. length 59 mt. breadth 16,5 mt. draught Triple E Maersk Line 21/09/2014 9 Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  10. New risks scenarios: container ships • Strong increase of orders of post-panamax ULCS 21/09/2014 10 Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  11. Potential Exposures and Accumulations • New cruiseship values: $ 1.000.000.000 • Ultra Large Containership: Hull Value $ 500.000.000 • 18.000 TEU’s carrying capacity • 20’ container average value: $ 50.000 /100.000 • Total cargo value: $ 900.000.000 / 1.800.000.000 • Total Value (hull+cargo) $ 1.400.000.000 / 2.300.000.000 • Costa Concordia (HM +IV) = $ 500.000.000 Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  12. Main Insurers on European Marketsand Underwriting Capacity (*) • UK: 600M • Lloyds / RSA / XL / Lancashire • Nordic: 200M • GARD / Norwegian Hull Club / Swedish Club • France: 200M • AXA / Allianz / Groupama Transport • Italy: 100M • Alleanza Toro / Ariscom / Assitalia / AXA C.S./ Generali / Siat • Swiss Re C.S. • Total Capacity 1.100M / 1.200M  Overcapacity in respect of current risks but what about future exposures? (*) internal estimate AXA C.S. - millions $ Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  13. Insurers facing Challenges: 2 • Solvency II scheduled for 1/1/2014 • Adoption of internal model of risk assessment • Greater attention to profitability •  Economic Combined Ratio (“time value”) Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  14. CONCLUSIONS • Difficult situation both for Insurers and Shipowners • Insurers need to balance their accounts • What is the way out? • Risk Management and Loss Prevention policies • Paris MOU NIR: ship risk profile • Facilitate long term relationships Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

  15. Thank you for your attention Future scenarios of Marine Insurance - A. Morelli

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