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AATS 2005 conference - Advanced Automated Transport Systems University of Bologna November 7, 2005

AATS 2005 conference - Advanced Automated Transport Systems University of Bologna November 7, 2005 Arno Mong Daastoel InnoTrans , Norway amd@innotrans.net. InnoTrans. EU’s increasingly clogged transport. and a PRT vision. InnoTrans. EU transport sector. 20 % of GNP of most nations

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AATS 2005 conference - Advanced Automated Transport Systems University of Bologna November 7, 2005

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  1. AATS 2005 conference - Advanced Automated Transport Systems University of Bologna November 7, 2005 Arno Mong Daastoel InnoTrans, Norway amd@innotrans.net InnoTrans

  2. EU’s increasingly clogged transport • and a PRT vision InnoTrans

  3. EU transport sector • 20 % of GNP of most nations • € 1000 billion market • 2/3rd costs related to manpower • Physical transport is a tech laggard (compared to communication in general) • Severe problems – on all levelsa) Space: local, regional, national, continentalb) Quality of life: Health, environment, time, expenses InnoTrans

  4. “The European Miracle”1. City State Mercantilism • A sensible experience: 15th Century- • Increased life span • Huge growth per capita • The Wealth of Cities • Population density – “friction and fire” • Many trades: Communication and Innovation (- the internet will super fuel innovation) InnoTrans

  5. “The European Miracle”2. National Mercantilism • Ruler’s duty: Create & protect prosperity • Create infrastructure • Administration • Standards: Grammar, Education, Law, Credit • Transport • “National Cities” through integrating transport • “Artificial population density” InnoTrans

  6. Learning by Experience:The Art of Borrowing(i.e. espionage and theft of knowledge from the leader) • Sumeria 3500-2500 BC • Phoenicia 1500-500 BC (+ China 500 BC-) • Byzantium 667-1400 AD • Italian cities 700-1600 AD • The Netherlands 1500-1700 • Britain 1600-1900 • USA 1800-2000 • Germany, Russia, Japan 1863-+ • Korea, Taiwan 1953- • China, India 1989- InnoTrans

  7. Transport in History – Water- large scale public works • Irrigation • India – Harappa culture 3000 BC • Egypt – King Menes 3000 BC • Sumeria – King Hammurabi 1760 BC • China - Karez & Dujiangyan systems 250 BC • Canals • Egypt – Upper Nile 4000 BC, Nile to Red Sea 404 BC • Mesopotamia - Shatt-el-hai Canal – Eufrates and Tigris 2200 BC • China - Wild Goose Canal 600 BC, Grand Canal, 600 AD • Germany – Charlemagne: Rhine and Danube 793 AD - finished 1846, new 1992 • Netherlands’ single lock 1065, Flemish double lock 1364 • France - Briare Canal 1604, Languedoc Canal 1666 • Sweden – Mälaren, 1606, Göta Canal 1810 • USA – Lake Michigan & Mississippi 1683, Erie Canal 1825 • England, Manchester 1759 • Germany – Kiel Canal 1784; Mittelland Canal, 1905 onwards InnoTrans

  8. Transport in History – Urban- large scale public works • Water supply - networks • Assyrian aqueducts 700 BC (longest was 80 km ) • Roman aqueducts – Aqua Appia 312 BC; Eifel 80 AD; Carthage 200 AD • Sewers (plumbing) • Sumeria 4000 BC (Iraq) • Harappa 3000 (Pakistan) • Minoan 2500 (Crete) • Rome 800 BC • China 200 BC • London (1668), Paris, Berlin, Hamburg 1840s AD InnoTrans

  9. Transport in History – Land- large scale public works • Road network • Horse-drawn chariot introduced in Near East, 1700 BC • Persia – King Darius, 522 BC • Rome – Via Appia: 312 BC • China – Emperor Shihuangdi , 220 BC • Inca – 1100 AD • Automobile Highways – (1888) US, Germany, Sweden in 1930s • Railroad networks (“Locomotive”) • British Empire – (1803) 1825 onwards • USA – (1804) 1828; Trans-Continental 1869 – Lincoln, Dodge • Germany – (1815) 1835 • Russia – Trans-Siberian 1903 - Alexander II & Witte • Sun Yat Sen, 1927 - today’s China: southern Trans-Eurasian ++ • Automated: New York 1962 (Grand Central Shuttle) • Air – 1900s InnoTrans

  10. Transport in History – Urban- large scale public works • Trams • Horse - 1828 USA: Baltimore, New York, New Orleans • Steam – 1873 • Electric – 1881: Berlin • Elevated Steam – 1868: New York; Chicago 1863 • Elevated Electric – 1894: New York • Trolley bus – 1881: Richmond, USA • Subway • Steam - 1850s: New York; London 1863; Istanbul 1875 • Electric – 1890: London; Budapest 1896; Boston 1897 • Automated – London 1968, 1987; Lille 1983 • Elevated Monorail • Horse – 1825 Chesnut, England • Steam - 1876 Philadelphia, Listowel & Ballybunion, England 1888 • Electric - Wuppertal 1901; Genoa 1914; Swedish-German ALWEG 1952; Tokyo 1957; Disneyland (ALWEG) 1959; Turin 1961; Seattle 1962; Tampa 1971 • Automated AND Personal - Morgantown 1975; Heathrow, London 2007? InnoTrans

  11. Transport in History – Symbols- Preconditions for Communication • ‘National’ Standards • Alphabet – Sumeria 3500 BC • ‘Grammar’, mathematics, calendar and time – Sumeria • Media • Books by mechanical mass printing - China 868; Germany 1448 AD • Newspapers – China, Roman Empire etc.; Europe 1600s AD InnoTrans

  12. Transport in History – Media- large scale public works • ‘Physical’ Networks • Sound, light and smoke signals • Postal network - China, Persia, Rome etc. - Europe 1600s AD • Wired Networks • Telegraph – 1837 (Morse) • Phone –1890s (1860 Meucci) • Fax –1970s (1843) • Internet – 1990s (1960s) • Wireless Networks • Radio broadcasting – 1897 (1873) • TV broadcasting – 1928 (1885) • Radio and telegraph - two-way communication – 1900 (1890s) • Mobile phone – 1980s (1970s) • Wireless Internet – 1990s InnoTrans

  13. EU after 1989 - Fall of “Berlin Wall” • For EU to integrate (- into one efficient market)EU needs • Standards • Taxation (“harmony”) • Finance • Transport • New transport links • East-West+ old problem: • North-South, through the mountains- Pyrenees and the Alps InnoTrans

  14. EU White Paper 2001:“European transport policy for 2010: time to decide” • “Transport is the essential driver” - of industry, trade, way of life, EU integration • After 1992 - no harmonious integration Result: • Growing congestion, delays, and pollution InnoTrans

  15. Today - EU suffocates • Transport, increased share of GDP– substituting welfare • Increasing congestion chokes EU • Continent less competitive • Harms the environment • Harms general living standards InnoTrans

  16. EU-congestion affects • Road : 10% of network: 7 500 km • Rail : 20% of network: 16 000 km - Freight: 18 kmph, poor punctuality • Air : 30 % > 15 minutes delayed • Cost: 0,5 % of GDP p/a ; 1% in 2010 InnoTrans

  17. Growth : 2001- 2010- if nothing is done • 2 x cars in 30 years, + 3 mill per year • Passengers + 43 % • Goods + 50 % • Sea: + 41 %, • Rail: 8 % • Road: 44 % • Waterways: 4 % • Co2 : 50 % 1990-2010 (84 % from road) InnoTrans

  18. EU policy will (“wishful thoughts”) • Decouple growth – in GNP & transport • Shift mode : transport to rail • Eliminate bottlenecks : invest • Place user in centre InnoTrans

  19. EU Goals (defensive and modest) • Freight +38 % instead of 50 % • Passenger + 21 % instead of 43 % • 200 mill ton reduction of CO2 InnoTrans

  20. Urban transport • Better use of cars • Improve rail tremendously • Increased cost of transport transferred to improved quality, corridors • BUT:EU can only propose, local authorities decide InnoTrans

  21. EU policies’ 60 measures • Tougher controls, penalties, uniform law, better information • “Motorways of the Sea”: Simplify harbour rules, one-stop shop • Waterway link to rivers, tech standardisation, improved navigation • Short-sea shipping, start-up aid for logistics • Marco Polo (intermodal freight - replaces PACT): € 30 mill p/a • Galileo (radio navigation) • Single sky from 2004, common rules, “Eurocontrol”, intermodality • Substitute fuel: bio: 2 % in 2005, 6 % in 2010 (by tax incentives) • Standard tax on fuel • Fund construction of missing links in corridors • Integrate rail in internal market, liberalisation • International freight trains, today: 18 km/h, lack of punctuality • TEN & HST (Trans-European Network & High Speed Trains)- Iberian HST, Rail through Pyrenees, - Stuttgart-Vienna, Denmark-Germany (Fehmarn), Straubing-Vilishofen, - Verona-Naples, Bologna-Milan InnoTrans

  22. Comments - on EU Goals & Measures • Goals • Too modest • Matters will deteriorate • Measures • Only negative(will increase costs and inefficiency of the economy: less competitive) • Patchworks - on old technologies (high-tech is used to ‘polish’ old solutions) InnoTrans

  23. Single Market – late 1980s initiatives Main architect: Jaques Delors et.al. (then EU Commissioner, form. Finance Minister of France, under Mitterand) • Customs Union (model: German Zollverein, 1818-1888) • Harmonious taxation & regulations (contracts etc.) • Common money - EMU 1989, €uro 1992 (2002) • TEN 1992 (Trans-European Networks) InnoTrans

  24. The continental TEN project • 1993: “TEN- Trans-European Networks”- 14 projects under H. Christoffersen • Italy 2003: ”The Tremonti Plan” • Austria 2006 ? InnoTrans

  25. 2003: Italy as EU chairman:”The Tremonti Plan” • FT: “Transport is key to growth, EU says” • 20 bn Euros for TENs • € 70bn infrastructure spending plan = ”prime pumping” InnoTrans

  26. Coming EU mid-term review (of White Paper - preliminary development 2004) • Freight up > than GDP growth • People up < than GDP growth • NB! - today practically zero growth • Dramatic change - when growth picks up InnoTrans

  27. Traffic development- preliminary development 2004 • Air 67 % - since 1993! • Railways steadily - Railway freight but high-speed • Cars , especially freight InnoTrans

  28. Emmisions, accidents & congestion-preliminary development 2004 • Emissions Nitrogen, still problems with small particles (Diesel) • Accidents 1993-2004: 70.000 to 43.000 - but still 20.000 too much (relative comp. to Norway) • Congestion - Increased on roads due to freight InnoTrans

  29. Improvement depends on connecting two issues • Innovative Transport+ • Innovative Finance InnoTrans

  30. Innovative Transport - 1 • EU support ? - Solve freight problem (door-to-door - as with transport of people) • Plan in principle – long term - New national networks “from the bottom” InnoTrans

  31. Innovative Transport-2 • Utilise tech. potential • Automation • On-vehicle switching • Integrate: • Modes: People & Goods etc. • Levels: Local, regional, national, continental networks (1x1 meter beam can carry 1 ton/meter = even containers and mineral ore) InnoTrans

  32. Public goods & responsibility • Concentrated costs - like private goods • Widely distributed benefits - in space and time- unlike private goods • Systematic under-investment- if market alone is responsible • Governments & EU must act InnoTrans

  33. Use PRT for ‘Prime Pumping’ EU • Historical parallels • Railroads & Telegraph– UK, USA, Germany, Russia etc. • Highways and automobiles - USA, Germany, Sweden etc. • Internet InnoTrans

  34. (Over-)Mature Industrial Nations- in Europe • High social spending; pensions and health • Little investment in infrastructure • Stagnating growth InnoTrans

  35. Mature exceptions • USA Deindustrialisation • Unsocial • Unsustainable bubble to pop(real estate, derivatives, triple deficits) • Japan: Continued industrialisation • Investment in infrastructure • No outsourcing of advanced processes InnoTrans

  36. Developing Nations • High growth: Taiwan, China etc. • High investment in infrastructure - creates • “physical trickle down”: high general activity and improved efficiency • “Transport – the carpet of industry” • Transport as efficiency-improving “locomotive” of the economy InnoTrans

  37. Financing EU’s grand projects • Both Delors and Tremonti plans: • Finance throughEIB (European Investment Bank) • Problem! Lack of: • National will and financial ability (in member states) • EU funding sources(ECB is disallowed from printing money AND channel them to infrastructure - (ECB = European Central Bank) • Therefore, use traditional private financing: Bonds • “Crowding out” effect (i.e. draining and pushing out private investment) • Loose ‘spark’ from prime pumping • Loose extra growth InnoTrans

  38. Traditional Finance- for infrastructure and growth • Public • Fund from tax revenue • Mixed Private/Public • Toll stations • Lease • BOT versions – (Build Operate Transfer) InnoTrans

  39. Mixed Innovative Finance- for infrastructure and growth Shared risk and profit: • Microfinance • Islamic banking • Partnerships Ltd. - since 2001+ • Land taxation (Henry George etc.) InnoTrans

  40. National Innovative Finance- for infrastructure and growth • Print money (and: !!) • Channel to productive purposes- cf. Ragnar Frisch: The Oslo channelling model • Growth without inflation - due to rise in efficiency and production InnoTrans

  41. Conclusion The solutions are at hand and - “This great enterprise will pay for itself, and all that is required of the Governments can be expressed in one word, and that is -- ENERGY.” (Friedrich List, The National System of Political Economy, 1841, p.435) Arno Mong DaastoelInnoTrans, Norway: amd@innotrans.net ph: +47. 6300 8590 InnoTrans

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