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Poor man’s temp attribution CCMVal DT attribution CCMval radiation comparison

Poor man’s temp attribution CCMVal DT attribution CCMval radiation comparison. Piers Forster. Cordero and Forster, 2006. 30N-30S 1979-2000 AR4 models. 50 hPa. Cordero and Forster, 2006. CCMval. Validation of Chemistry Climate Models – entering 3 rd year Eyring et al. papers

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Poor man’s temp attribution CCMVal DT attribution CCMval radiation comparison

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  1. Poor man’s temp attributionCCMVal DT attributionCCMval radiation comparison Piers Forster

  2. Cordero and Forster, 2006 30N-30S 1979-2000 AR4 models

  3. 50 hPa Cordero and Forster, 2006

  4. CCMval • Validation of Chemistry Climate Models – entering 3rd year • Eyring et al. papers • Myself and Victor Formichev doing CCMVal radiation intercomparison. Victor does stratopause up • may extend to J values for chemists • May part is now supported by small grant so should progress faster

  5. Cagnazzo et al ACP, 2007Improvements to ECHAM5 SW scheme

  6. CCMVal Radiation: FutureTesting Radiation schemes About 8 CCM groups signed up, hopefully get all involved Follow Collins et al. 2006 procedure • Questionnaire for groups to document radn scheme • Website with zonally averaged Jan climatology ERA40, up to 0.1 hPa • Series of clear sky GHG perturbations: • Ozone, water vapour, CO2, CH4, N2O • Look at fluxes and heating rates • Maybe FDH calculations • Maybe extend to: aerosol and cloud • Worrying about truthing : LBL and Discrete-Ordinate Model (One so far + others)

  7. Problems with strat attribution IPCC type climate models: poor radiation schemes and resolution Coupled chemistry models are also now common and don’t prescribe ozone Don’t trust tropical tropopause response or polar stratospheric dynamical response Information lost in broad weighting functions

  8. The answer • Go back to doing Fixed Dynamical Heating rate calculations at high vertical resolution with accurate radiation schemes • Just like I’ve always done!

  9. Randel and Wu ozone - actual absolute monthly values – includes QBO and solar cycle effect on ozone , LLGHGs FDH

  10. Tropics: lower strat

  11. Forster, Solomon, Bodeker, Schofield, and Thompson: draft for GRL

  12. Forster, Solomon, Bodeker, Schofield, and Thompson: draft for GRL

  13. Forster, Solomon, Bodeker, Schofield, and Thompson: draft for GRL

  14. CCMVAL Temperature trendsAustin et al. paper • Simulations of temperature from models from 1970s until 2000 • Output of zonally averaged, ozone, water vapour, llghgs, temp, (aerosols?) My task • Do FDH temperature calcs with ozone and LLGHG trends from model to attribute model trends – i.e. understand model temp response

  15. Top of Atmosphere Fluxes

  16. 1985-2005 trends

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