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Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis

Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis. Peter A. Petri Brandeis University and East-West Center Asia Pacific Council May 6, 2010. Most likely a “V” Real GDP growth rates. IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”.

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Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis

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  1. Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis Peter A. Petri Brandeis University and East-West Center Asia Pacific Council May 6, 2010

  2. Most likely a “V”Real GDP growth rates IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”

  3. Growth before and after crisisReal GDP growth rates, 2000-07 and projected 2009-15 IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”

  4. The rebalancing challenge • Rebalancing demand • Make demand sustainable (Asian consumption, investment) • Link to engines of growth (Asian trade and demand) • Rebalancing supply • Expand net exports (deficit economies) • Energize non-tradable sectors (surplus economies) • Magnitudes • Imbalances declined in crisis; now rising • Manageable if addressed now

  5. Structural policies

  6. When will China pass the US?Current dollar GDP projection based on prior 5-year growth rate Calculations based on IMF WEO April 2010“catchup graph”

  7. Rebalancing US exports US exports 2009 US export growth, 2009-14 Calculations based on US Department of Commerce trade (5/2/2010) and IMF WEO GDP data (4/2010)“WEO apr10 groups”

  8. US strategic imperative • Priorities • Engage emerging economies (Asia) • Facilitate domestic adjustment (exports) • Manage multi-layered architecture (regional FTAs) • We get it • “We have to lead, and our engagement must extend to governments, business, and peoples across the Pacific.” (Obama) • “The United States is back in Asia… back to stay.” (Clinton) • “We want to be in the game in Asia.” (Geithner)

  9. Crucial 18 months • APEC: Japan 2010, US 2011 • US legislative window: early 2011 • Three dreams • KORUS • Trans-Pacific Partnership • A fruitful Hawaiian APEC • Investment: investment principles • Environment: trade and technology transfer • Demographics: future capital, people flows • Inclusion: spotlight on women

  10. APEC timeline • Japan • June 2010: SOM2, trade, energy • September 2010: SOM3 • November 2010: Leaders’ Meeting (Yokohama) • US • December 2010: informal SOM • Mid 2011: SOM2, trade, energy • November 2011: Leaders’ Meeting (Honolulu)

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