Fast forward the asia pacific after the crisis
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Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis. Peter A. Petri Brandeis University and East-West Center Asia Pacific Council May 6, 2010. Most likely a “V” Real GDP growth rates. IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”.

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Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis

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Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis

Peter A. Petri

Brandeis University and East-West Center

Asia Pacific Council

May 6, 2010


Most likely a “V”Real GDP growth rates

IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”


Growth before and after crisisReal GDP growth rates, 2000-07 and projected 2009-15

IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”


The rebalancing challenge

  • Rebalancing demand

    • Make demand sustainable (Asian consumption, investment)

    • Link to engines of growth (Asian trade and demand)

  • Rebalancing supply

    • Expand net exports (deficit economies)

    • Energize non-tradable sectors (surplus economies)

  • Magnitudes

    • Imbalances declined in crisis; now rising

    • Manageable if addressed now


Structural policies


When will China pass the US?Current dollar GDP projection based on prior 5-year growth rate

Calculations based on IMF WEO April 2010“catchup graph”


Rebalancing US exports

US exports 2009

US export growth, 2009-14

Calculations based on US Department of Commerce trade (5/2/2010) and IMF WEO GDP data (4/2010)“WEO apr10 groups”


US strategic imperative

  • Priorities

    • Engage emerging economies (Asia)

    • Facilitate domestic adjustment (exports)

    • Manage multi-layered architecture (regional FTAs)

  • We get it

    • “We have to lead, and our engagement must extend to governments, business, and peoples across the Pacific.” (Obama)

    • “The United States is back in Asia… back to stay.” (Clinton)

    • “We want to be in the game in Asia.” (Geithner)


Crucial 18 months

  • APEC: Japan 2010, US 2011

  • US legislative window: early 2011

  • Three dreams

    • KORUS

    • Trans-Pacific Partnership

    • A fruitful Hawaiian APEC

      • Investment: investment principles

      • Environment: trade and technology transfer

      • Demographics: future capital, people flows

      • Inclusion: spotlight on women


APEC timeline

  • Japan

    • June 2010: SOM2, trade, energy

    • September 2010: SOM3

    • November 2010: Leaders’ Meeting (Yokohama)

  • US

    • December 2010: informal SOM

    • Mid 2011: SOM2, trade, energy

    • November 2011: Leaders’ Meeting (Honolulu)


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