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Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis. Peter A. Petri Brandeis University and East-West Center Asia Pacific Council May 6, 2010. Most likely a “V” Real GDP growth rates. IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”.

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fast forward the asia pacific after the crisis

Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis

Peter A. Petri

Brandeis University and East-West Center

Asia Pacific Council

May 6, 2010

most likely a v real gdp growth rates
Most likely a “V”Real GDP growth rates

IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”

growth before and after crisis real gdp growth rates 2000 07 and projected 2009 15
Growth before and after crisisReal GDP growth rates, 2000-07 and projected 2009-15

IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”

the rebalancing challenge
The rebalancing challenge
  • Rebalancing demand
    • Make demand sustainable (Asian consumption, investment)
    • Link to engines of growth (Asian trade and demand)
  • Rebalancing supply
    • Expand net exports (deficit economies)
    • Energize non-tradable sectors (surplus economies)
  • Magnitudes
    • Imbalances declined in crisis; now rising
    • Manageable if addressed now
when will china pass the us current dollar gdp projection based on prior 5 year growth rate
When will China pass the US?Current dollar GDP projection based on prior 5-year growth rate

Calculations based on IMF WEO April 2010“catchup graph”

rebalancing us exports
Rebalancing US exports

US exports 2009

US export growth, 2009-14

Calculations based on US Department of Commerce trade (5/2/2010) and IMF WEO GDP data (4/2010)“WEO apr10 groups”

us strategic imperative
US strategic imperative
  • Priorities
    • Engage emerging economies (Asia)
    • Facilitate domestic adjustment (exports)
    • Manage multi-layered architecture (regional FTAs)
  • We get it
    • “We have to lead, and our engagement must extend to governments, business, and peoples across the Pacific.” (Obama)
    • “The United States is back in Asia… back to stay.” (Clinton)
    • “We want to be in the game in Asia.” (Geithner)
crucial 18 months
Crucial 18 months
  • APEC: Japan 2010, US 2011
  • US legislative window: early 2011
  • Three dreams
    • KORUS
    • Trans-Pacific Partnership
    • A fruitful Hawaiian APEC
      • Investment: investment principles
      • Environment: trade and technology transfer
      • Demographics: future capital, people flows
      • Inclusion: spotlight on women
apec timeline
APEC timeline
  • Japan
    • June 2010: SOM2, trade, energy
    • September 2010: SOM3
    • November 2010: Leaders’ Meeting (Yokohama)
  • US
    • December 2010: informal SOM
    • Mid 2011: SOM2, trade, energy
    • November 2011: Leaders’ Meeting (Honolulu)
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