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Plan C: The Conserver Option – Curtailment, Cooperation, Community. Third U.S. Conference on “Peak Oil” and Community Solutions Yellow Springs, Ohio Presented by Pat Murphy, Executive Director Community Solutions September 23, 2006. Reality Continues.

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Plan c the conserver option curtailment cooperation community

Plan C: The Conserver Option –Curtailment, Cooperation, Community

Third U.S. Conference on “Peak Oil” and Community Solutions

Yellow Springs, Ohio

Presented by

Pat Murphy, Executive Director

Community Solutions

September 23, 2006


Reality continues

Reality Continues

  • Colin Campbell (ASPO) continues to count the days

  • Opponents confuse by ignoring conventional distinction


Another discovery tick

Another Discovery Tick

  • April 2006 Association for Study of Peak Oil Newsletter


The usgs remains silent

The USGS Remains Silent

  • Hirsch (DOE) & Dept. of Army show real government view

  • Similar situation with King Hubbert and Vincent McKelvey


We do have a plan

We Do Have a Plan

  • Over 5 years old – Energy Policy Plan

  • Knew about Peak Oil when written

  • Many dislike it – but it’s a plan

  • Largest investment – Military approach

    • Control Middle East oil and gas

  • Secondary Investment – Energy

    • Long Term Investments since 1970s

    • Solar Surprise – Bezdek & Wendling

  • Popular view needs reanalysis


Military likely resources conflict

Military – Likely Resources Conflict

  • US hostile to many oil nations

    • Iran may be invaded – could lead to World War

  • Russia and China rearming – Russia gas turnoff


Unequal energy income pollution basis for resource wars

Unequal Energy, Income, PollutionBasis for Resource Wars

  • Population

    • US–5%,

    • OECD Lite–10%

    • ROW–85%

  • Ratio

    • U.S./ROW–8

    • OECD-l/ROW–4

  • Result–15%

    • Burn ½ energy

    • Have ½ wealth

    • Make ½ CO2

  • HxCy = $ = CO2


World now understands wealth energy

World Now Understands: Wealth=Energy

  • Everyone is a capitalist now

    • Political approach unimportant

    • Democracy or Dictatorship

      • India or China

      • It’s economic growth

        • And energy consumption

  • Cold war returning

    • Shanghai Cooperative

    • Differences are resource control, not ideology

      Energy Wars are likely

    • U.S. military budget is over $500 billion yearly

      • 50% of world arms expenditure

    • U.S. giving nuclear support to India to counter China

      • China built 12 submarines last year; tested missile


Non military energy investments

Non-Military Energy Investments

  • Funding Proposal 2007 Advanced Energy Initiative

  • Huge private investments – GE $148B (wind), Sharp $24B (PV)

    Arthur Daniels Midland & Cargill $110B (bio-fuels)


Climate change adding urgency

Climate Change Adding Urgency!

  • My personal epiphany of 2006!!

    • CO2 = 2.6 * Fuel Burned (weight)

      • 2005 IEA report

  • Issue not when oil is half gone

    • Economic contractions

  • Paradigm shift

    • We dare not burn remaining oil

    • Nor the coal, tar sands & shale!

  • Why don’t we see this?

    • We are bewitched!


Technology faith america s danger

Technology Faith – America’s Danger

  • U.S. belief in technology is strong

    • Religion of all religions

  • Doctrine of “substitution” implies there are no growth limits

  • This belief sets national policy

  • Two major Plans – A & B

    • Both count on technology

    • Opposing positions - maybe


Energy plan a fossil fuel based

Energy Plan A – Fossil Fuel-Based

  • So called “non-renewables”

  • Business as usual

  • Develop tar sands, oil shale, nuclear

  • Top priority is “clean” coal

    • (Bury CO2 in ocean and land)

    • CO2 from coal – 2x natural gas

  • Corporate/government view

  • President Bush, CEOs of Exxon, Cargill, GE, GM, Ford


Energy plan b non fossil fuel based

Energy Plan B – Non-Fossil Fuel-Based

  • So called “renewables”

  • “Environmentally” oriented

  • Develop wind and solar

    • Nuclear being debated

  • One priority is bio-fuels

    • Burning of food

  • Assumes new transportation options

    • Mass transit, fuel cells, PHEVs

  • Al Gore, Lester Brown, Carl Pope, Amory Lovins, James Lovelock

    • Many solar and wind companies


Energy plans a b common points

Energy Plans A & B – Common Points

  • Fuels or new sources (A or B Technology) will save us

    • Plan A – Clean Coal, Tar Sands

    • Plan B – Switch Grass, Wind and Solar

    • Nuclear power supported by both to some degree

  • Lots of overlap between two e.g. GE

    • Biggest wind turbine company

    • Biggest power plant (coal, gas, nuclear) company

  • Agreement – Nation’s # 1 goal

    • Increase economic growth by increased energy consumption

    • We don’t have to consume less energy – just different energy

    • Technology is the answer


But can technology save us

But Can Technology “Save Us”?

  • This is a belief issue – it is not at all obvious

  • Technology = more efficient/innovative machines burning fuels

    • Could technology exist without fossil fuels

    • Will it continue when fossil fuels are gone?

  • There are high energy and low energy technologies

    • Cars, planes, power plants

    • Bypass surgery, most drugs, better golf clubs

  • We have yet to consider a high tech – low energy world

  • Recent energy technology breakthroughs are not impressive


Comparison to past projects

Comparison to Past Projects

  • Popular mantra for Peak Oil – We need a ….

    • (Manhattan, Apollo, Marshall Plan) Project

  • Time lines

    • Manhattan Project – 12 years

    • Apollo Project – 9 Years

    • Marshall Plan - 11 years

  • Recent uncompleted energy projects

    • Hydrogen Economy – 33 years

      • Fuel cell discovered in 1843

    • Nuclear Fusion – 40 plus years in development


Two examples one old one new

Two Examples – One Old, One New

  • Hyper car – H2, fuel cell

    • 30 years of overstatement

    • Always fundamentally flawed

      • Takes more energy to make H2 than it creates – ignored

    • Popular with Plan B advocates

  • CO2 (Carbon) Sequestration (aka CCS)

    • Gives us “Clean” Coal

    • Dirt (toxins) legacy to our children

    • Popular with Plan A advocates

      • (And Al Gore)


Green solution h2 fuel cell facts

“Green” Solution – H2/Fuel Cell Facts

  • 1843 – Fuel cell invented

  • 1904 – Wind power generates hydrogen

  • 1965 – Fuel cell built in Space program

  • 1973 – Nixon Project Independence (H2)

  • 1993 – Ballard makes first FC bus ($800 M)

  • 2002 – Two FC cars arrive in California

  • 2006 – A few hundred vehicles out of 750,000,000

    • Price is around $1,000,000

    • Still don’t know where the hydrogen will come from

Wind/H2 1904


1999 technology projections

1999 Technology Projections

  • Daimler Chrysler – pledged 100,000 FC vehicles/yr by 2005

    • Invested $350 million in Ballard Power Systems

  • Ford – Invested $420 million in Ballard

  • Toyota committed to fuel cell “well before 2002”

  • GM – promised fuel cell cars in 2004

  • All hype – Nothing has come of it except prototypes

    • From Amory Lovins’ Natural Capitalism (1999)


New option clean fossil fuels

New Option – “Clean” Fossil Fuels

  • CO2 Sequestration – A potential holocaust for all life

  • Remember nuclear waste ocean dumping?

    • Nuclear waste still around – and increasing in volume


The sequestration challenge

The Sequestration Challenge

  • Bury 1–2 trillion pounds of CO2 annually

    • Put in earth and oceans

    • Contain it for 1000s of years

  • Tests have placed trivial amounts

    • Canada land site, Norway sea site

    • CO2 has stayed for 10 years

  • Government and corporations unlikely to wait for proof

    • Future Gen project test – 2012 at earliest

      • Like nuclear industry, private industry will not be liable

    • Repeating the nuclear experience – but more dangerous

  • “Bequestration” better name than “sequestration”

    • Legacy for our children – an uninhabitalbe planet


Major corporate backing

Major Corporate Backing

  • Princeton University's Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI)

    • $20-million dollar from British Petroleum and Ford

  • MIT Carbon Initiative funded by energy and car corporations:

    • American Electric Power, American Petroleum Institute, Aramco Services, Chevron, Electricité de France (EDF), EPRI, ExxonMobil, Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Marathon Oil, Peabody Energy (Coal)

  • Public excluded

    • Dear Mr. Murphy,Thank you for your interest in the MIT Carbon Sequestration Initiative.  At this time, the prospectus is only available for our corporate sponsors or potential corporate sponsors.  -- Mary


Plans a b lead to plan d dieoff

Plans A & B Lead to Plan D – Dieoff

  • Based on legitimate despair

  • Lack of confidence in leadership

    • Political

    • Corporate

    • Scientific

  • See little hope for people actions

  • Advocates are not naive

  • Jay Hanson


Bartlett at aspo usa november 2005

Bartlett at ASPO-USA: November 2005

  • "How dumb could a civilization be that had a finite resource of really high quality energy and burned it all up in such a short time, leaving essentially nothing behind?"

  • “In the 5000 years of recorded history, 250 to 300 years and the age of oil is all over. What kind of world will we leave our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren? What will they say of us? Will our great grand children say,

    • "What kind of monsters must they have been?”

    • *Representative Roscoe Bartlett at ASPO-USA: November 2005


Results aren t so good

Results Aren’t So Good

  • High crime rates

    • Murders, rapes, assaults

    • Record high incarceration

  • Environmental degradation

    • Soil disappearing

  • Growing inequity

    • 2005 highest in

      U.S. recorded history

  • Deteriorating health

  • Loss of civic engagement

    Lack of involvement

    Loss of community

  • Need something better


Plan c conserving in community

Plan C – Conserving in Community

  • A view of only using enough

    • Conserving, Sharing & Saving

    • vs.

    • Competing, Hoarding & Consuming

  • Means Curtailment – Cutting back

    • Not “token” conservation

    • Sharing resources now and with people in the future

  • Needs “Community”

    • Context for a new “Way of Life”

    • Cooperation Principle


Conserving different from efficiency

Conserving Different from Efficiency

  • Efficiency increases consumption – at least for our culture!

    • Jevons Paradox – more efficiency means more consumption

  • Conservation (curtailment) – deliberate attempt to use less

    • A context where efficiency is not a basis for more consumption


Plan c underway since 1970s

Plan C – Underway Since 1970s

  • There are several Plan C schools

    AgrariansIntentional Communities

    CSAs Sustainability Movements

    Small TownsVoluntary Simplicity Groups

    PermacultureOrganic local farmers

    Appropriate and Intermediate Technology Groups

  • Response when these groups hear of Peak Oil & Climate Change

    • “I wondered what would trigger the crisis!”

  • Share similar values

    • And the values determine the technologies and tactics


Plan c technology intermediate

Plan C Technology – Intermediate

  • We need technology – but not the high-energy kind

  • Easy to determine Plan C technology

    • Visit other countries – 5, 10 or 20 BOE yearly vs. U.S. 57

    • History’s junk yards – re-implement discarded technologies

  • Locate, and use, latest intermediate technologies

    • E.F. Schumacher Society (England), Univ. of Illinois

  • Intermediate technology

    • Does not imply “going back” to outdated methods

    • A forward movement into new territories

  • “The achievement of science does not lie mainly in the apparatus and machinery that have been developed from it”

    • E. F. Schumacher – Small is Beautiful


Plan c example cuba

Plan C Example – Cuba

  • Experienced unexpected Peak

    Oil with USSR 1990 collapse

    • Implemented “Plan C”

  • 2004 – same life span/infant

    mortality as U.S.

    • Uses 1/8 oil U.S. per capita

  • Just declared 2006 as The Year of the Energy Revolution

    • Cutting energy 50% more

  • See “The Power of Community – How Cuba Survived Peak Oil”


Community or personal change

Community or Personal Change?

  • Two schools of thought – change policy or change self

    • Obviously both – but the order is important

  • Decentralization, localization, relocalization

    • Do we study Yellow Springs 20 vehicles and 5 buildings?

    • Or villagers’ 2,000 vehicles and 1,500 homes?

  • Personal experience needed to make community change

    • May require a conserver mind set to even analyze options

    • Most people still believe in Plan A or B – want alternatives

    • There are technical skills lacking – EROEI, Live Cycle Costs

    • Successes to date are arguable – passing resolutions


Context u s personal consumption

Context – U.S. Personal Consumption

  • Food. Cars, Houses (BOE Equivalent); about half total

  • Each of these greater than total consumption of ROW

  • Focus on these three personal consumption – ignore rest


Family farm or corporate farm

Family Farm or Corporate Farm

  • 10 calories of fossil fuels consumed per calorie of food energy produced

    • Destroying life-giving soil

    • Using fossil fuel water

  • Exploitation of migrant workers

    • Short life span

  • Suffering of farm animals

  • Increasing levels of obesity and diabetes in population

  • Destroyed livelihoods


Plan c food tactics

Plan C Food Tactics

  • Eat less – from 3,800 to 2,500 Calories per day (1/3 reduction)

    • Fight obesity and medical costs

  • Change your diet

    • Avoid beverage and snack food industry

    • Avoid manufactured foods – don’t support the enemy

  • Don’t eat industrial manufactured meat (16 to 1 fuel ratio)

    • Eat locally grown meats or don’t eat meat

  • Prepare and store your own food – avoid freezers

  • Create a garden – use the energy intensive lawn

    • Raising food teaches something school can’t


Big car or frugal car or no car

Big Car or Frugal Car (or no car)

  • The values of style and image

    • Its not about transport

  • Rest of world is frugal

    • U.S. 21 mpg

    • Europe 42 mpg, Japan 47 mpg

  • GM Hummer vs. Honda Insight Example

    • GM Hummer (10 mpg) 2005 sales – 61,000 units

    • Honda Insight (60 mpg) 2005 sales – 700 units

    • In September 2006, Honda took Insight off the market

  • Government will not pass C.A.F.E. Standards

    • Did so in 1975; Cut speed limits in 1974


Plan c transportation tactic

Plan C Transportation Tactic

  • Replace your car with a more efficient one – new or used

    • Don’t wait to buy a hybrid

    • Buy foreign cars when possible

      • Force U.S. manufacturers to change

        • U.S. companies make small cars overseas

        • It’s greed for SUV profits

  • Share rides everywhere

    • Set a high goal e.g. drive alone 50% less


Small is beautiful

Small Is Beautiful

  • McMansion vs. Simple Homes

    • Habitat for Humanity/Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL–BTC)

    • Successful building of very low energy small houses

  • U.S. houses twice the size of European houses (like cars)

    • 2000 vs. 1000 sq. ft.


Plan c home tactics

Plan C Home Tactics

  • Live in a smaller space.

  • Retrofit the home you have (60 year average life)

    • Focus on building envelope – floors, walls, ceilings/roofs

      • May have to build inner walls

    • Upgrade windows

      • Build window covers if you can’t replace windows

  • Evaluate and upgrade (or eliminate) appliances (10-year life)

    • On-demand water heater may help

    • Fluorescents or LED lights replace incandescents

    • Get Sunfrost refrigerator or equivilent

  • Remodel for multiple tenants


Seem too simple

Seem Too Simple?

  • Huge change of perspective

    • Wait until a Hummer gets on the tail of your small car

    • Will your friends visit you in a lesser home?

    • Can you eat healthy?

  • There are many new physical skills required

    • And new analytical skills to be learned

  • It will take years – and you will be a different person

  • Better option that gathering more data about technology

  • This is a radical change for America – and a needed one


Community solutions plan c projects

Community Solutions Plan C Projects

  • Agraria – small community in Yellow Springs, Ohio

    • The basis for repopulation of the rural areas

    • Houses using 1/4th energy of conventional houses

    • Multi-use – farming, workshops, clustered housing

    • Land located – dependent on funds

  • Smart Jitney – ride sharing system to share cars

    • Specifications at communitysolution.org

    • Reduce national energy use by 75%

    • Reduce accidents

    • Rebuild community

  • Common principle – cut energy (and CO2) by 75%


Community solutions plan c studies

Community Solutions Plan C Studies

  • Retrofit and Reclaim

    • Refurbish 110 million U. S. residences – average life: 60 years

    • Problem is to retrofit – not do new “green” or “eco” building

      • When crisis approaches, there will be little new building

  • Consumer Energy Data Book

    • Budgeting for energy not money

    • Consumer is ignorant of energy

      • Confused by concept and measures (gal, Cu Ft, kWh)

      • Doesn’t understand energy/money relationship


Wendell berry s reminder

Wendell Berry’s Reminder

  • You must depend upon affection, reading, knowledge, skill – more of each than you have – imagination, work, growing older, patience, for patience joins time to eternity

  • A new vision! Less is More!


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