K k utveckling priser prim ra r varor inkl indikationer p indirekta och f rpackning
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Kåkå - Utveckling priser primära råvaror ( inkl . indikationer på indirekta och förpackning ). Niklas Myrbäck, Kine B Jakobsen, Mikael B McKeown 2012-05-03. Råvaror. Socker (KJB) Mjöl (KJB) Olja(NM) Kakao och choklad(NM) Mejeri(MBM) Förpackning och indirekta(MBM).

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Kåkå - Utveckling priser primära råvaror ( inkl . indikationer på indirekta och förpackning )

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K k utveckling priser prim ra r varor inkl indikationer p indirekta och f rpackning

Kåkå- Utvecklingpriserprimäraråvaror (inkl. indikationerpåindirektaochförpackning)

Niklas Myrbäck, Kine B Jakobsen, Mikael B McKeown

2012-05-03


R varor

Råvaror

  • Socker (KJB)

  • Mjöl (KJB)

  • Olja(NM)

  • Kakao och choklad(NM)

  • Mejeri(MBM)

  • Förpackning och indirekta(MBM)


Makro indikerar generella r varupriser n tt en sidleds botten

Makro indikerar generella råvarupriser nått en sidleds botten...


Men n s l nge saknas momentum p kort sikt f r att bryta trenden i sidleds

...men än sålänge saknas momentum på kort sikt för att bryta trenden i sidleds


Kakao sidleds r relser vegoljor och vete har positivt momentum men socker v rldsmarknad negativt

Kakao sidleds rörelser, vegoljor och vete har positivt momentum men socker (världsmarknad) negativt

Coconut Oil

Palm Oil

Rapeseed Oil

Soybean Oil

Sunflower Oil


Market prices down 15 since q1 peak and are expected to fall somewhat more in q2

Sugar (world):

Market pricesdown 15% since Q1 peak and are expected to fall somewhat more in Q2

Main market events

1 yeargraph

  • Ahead of the Brazilian chrushing season the production is expected up 6-8% on last year’s failed crop

  • All in all the 2012/13 season is expected to produce a suplus of ~5 mill mt

    • Brazil, India, Thailanda and Russiaarelookinggood

    • China’sproducion is declining

Going forward

5 yeargraph

  • A price decline is expected due to supply surplus

  • Price floor realistic in the 20-21 c/lbs range

    • low inventories keep market on toes

    • Brazilian ethanol pricecreatesfloor

Source: Mintec, Kingsman, Bunge, Kairos


K k utveckling priser prim ra r varor inkl indikationer p indirekta och f rpackning

Sugar (EU):EU commission aims to have a balanced market and less interested in creating price pressure…….

  • European Sugar producers will most certainly try to press prices upwards 10 – 50 € / MT in Germany and France

  • Planed meetings with the Sugar producers in April - May

  • Orkla will send out RFP I in May

  • Main focus must be to eliminate price differences EU mainland Vs. Scandinavia

    • Please forward evidence!!!!!!!!

  • Price indication Company X Q4 2012

  • Current price770 €/mt DDU

  • Polski Cukier 827 €

  • Südzucker 825 €

  • Suiker Unie788 €

  • Nordic Sugar 770 €

2015

2020


Market prices quite stable during the last month but are expected to fall back 0 5 in q2 q3

Wheat

Market pricesquite stable during the last month, but are expected to fall back 0-5% in Q2-Q3

Main market events

1 yeargraph

  • In Europe prices have stabilised in the 200-205 range

  • Global inventories are increasing as the growth in supplies outweighs the growth in demand. Balance may however shift during the 2012/13 season

  • Uncertainties in Europe relating to damages to the winter wheat and insufficient rain

  • Feed prices in Europe keep milling wheat prices up

Going forward

5 yeargraph

  • Logistical problems in Russia due to winter conditions will ease and hence bring more grain to the market before the new European crop season

  • European prices are expected to decline due to a supplysurplus, butbeforewe know more aboutthestateofthewinterwheat and getthe spring wheatplantedthe market remainsindecisive

  • Ifno major weatherabnormalitiesoccurweshouldexpect a pricedeclineof 0-5% to the 190-200 EUR/mtlevel

Source: Mintec, Demetra, Handelsbanken, Kairos


K k utveckling priser prim ra r varor inkl indikationer p indirekta och f rpackning

Cocoa and Chocolate:

From verylowlevels in December 2011, prices have started to increaseagain and willlikelycontinuehigher

Main market events

1 year development

  • Supplyimprovedslightly from previousesti-matesbutprices have beenextremelypressured due to an extraordinarystrongcrop in 10/11

  • Demandseenrelatively stable for cocoabeansbutstrongeroningredients

  • Pricedevelopment Q1:

    • CocoaBeans: +10%

    • Cocoa Butter: +14%

    • CocoaPowder: -2%

    • Milk Chocolate Base: +11%

Cocoa Beans

Cocoa Butter

Cocoa Powder

Milk Chocolate Base Index (67% butter and 33% liquor)

Going forward

  • Surplusofcocoabeans from last cropwilldiminishifdemandcontinues to stay stable

  • Warmweathercausingfearsof less supply in mid-crop (starts May)

  • If not exceptionalgoodweathercomingmaincrop (October), therewill be a new deficit and thuspriceswillsoar

  • A stronger USD could lift EUR and GBP prices (EUR and GBP unchanged from last quarter)

  • Powderexpected to continuedecrease

5 years development

Source: MintecDatagain, Kairos, Reuters


Weekly cocoa beans

Weekly Cocoa Beans

Kairos

  • Outlook

  • Short-term (1 week to 3-5 months)

  • Kairos expects short-term downtrend to temporary have stopped and now move sideways trend before a new direction in the medium and long-term can change. Recommendation to stay lean until further notice

  • Medium/Long-term (6-12 m/12-36 m)

  • Kairos expects an increase to start anything from May to after the summer. The increase will be for a couple of months and after that a new downturn before signs of the intact major downturn to change

  • New fundamentals

  • Ivorian arrivals reached 1 081 000 tonnes by April 30th (+3,5% from last year), heavily up on weekly basis

  • Indonesia cocoa exports soar (output fell by 27% in 2011 but is expected to regain if not equally wet weather)

  • Brazilian main crop ended 2% behind last year’s

Other news

  • Brazil mid crop starts flow early

  • Ivorian cocoa prices of grinders up on local demand

  • Ghana’s Cocobod probes 70 000 tonnes discrepancy of reported purchase vs actual purchase

  • Speculators raise net long in cocoa beans

  • Attack in western Ivory Coast kills at least five people

  • Quality issues reported on Ivorian beans

For full information of how to interpret Kairos’ trend views, visit kairoscommodities.com or contact OBP

Prices

Comments

After problems with our software we are now again able to publish weekly newsletters. The graphs (to the left) however are not as before but we are working on solving this asap so that you can view price development on 1 month, 1 year and 5 year horizons. So far, only 1 year.

Summarizing Q1 we have basically seen flat prices. Our recommendation to cover Q1 in January was thus neither wrong nor made you lost an advantage to the market. What has been driving the market to stay sideways is the increased output/arrivals of cocoa beans in Western Africa. The deman of cocoa beans (measured in grindings in North America, Europe and Germany) was published a few weeks ago and was shown relatively strong (after adjusting for the grindings in 2011 that were higher due to Ivory Coast that did not grind anything because of the export ban). All in all is the good supply pressuring prices while demand is quite stable. Therefore, an expected short-term decrease that we warned for has not realized.

Kairos is still expecting we will see a downturn before the end of 2012 but before that a short term increase. As we see prices, we recommend in line with Kairos to await further signs (and also the results of the mid crop that starts now in May) before drawing any conclusions of the price direction until further notice.

However, if you are well profiting in your price in/price out (budget) then we recommend to cover 2012 as price developments are uncertain.

Cocoa Beans 1 year

(1st futures contract rolling)


Orkla largest veg oils up 5 in q1 but in general fundamentals support the increase to be short term

Vegetable oils

Orkla largest veg.oils up ~5% in Q1, but in general fundamentals support the increase to be short term

Main market events

  • World productionofthe 17 major oils and fats continued to increasedpronouncedly in Q1 2012

  • Veg.oilpricechangessince 1 Jan 2012:

    • Palmoil Cif Rotterdam: +7%

    • Coconutoil Cif Rotterdam: -18%

    • Palmkernel Cif Rotterdam: -13%

    • RapeseedoilExw Rotterdam: +2%

    • SunfloweroilExw Rotterdam: +4%

    • Palm olein FOB Malaysia: +6%

Going forward

  • In Q2 it is expectedthat world productionwillincrease less thanthe normal demandgrowthseen in previousseasons, causingpressureonprices

  • Palmoil: Fundamentals support priceincrease, at leastshort term (3-5 months).

  • Rapeseedoil: Continuedtightsupplies and fundamentals overall support priceincrease.

  • Sunfloweroil: Overall fundamentals support downwardpressureonprice, particularlybecauseofincreasingsupplysurplus

Source: Mintec, Kairo


K k utveckling priser prim ra r varor inkl indikationer p indirekta och f rpackning

Dairy (EU)

Dairy prices fell sharply from Feb 2012 and high milk production suggests fall will continue through Q2

Main market events

  • NZ auction prices for SMP and WMP are down 2-5% since Dec 2011

  • German market price changes since 1 Jan 2012:

    • SMP: -16%

    • WMP: -14%

    • Butter: -29%

    • Cheese: -9%

  • Milk deliveries in New Zealand, Europe and the USA are on historically high levels

Going forward

  • EU dairy producers face tough competition from US and Oceania dairies on export markets

  • Milk deliveries are at high levels historically and we are entering northern hemisphere peak production period

  • Prices have fallen far and show signs of stabilising. However, with historically high milk production and modest demand, we expect prices to come down further

Source: ZMB, Hoogewegt Horizons, Dairy Trader, Kairos


K k utveckling priser prim ra r varor inkl indikationer p indirekta och f rpackning

Aluminium, crude and electricity set to move sideways, container freight expected to continue increase

1 year price development

Short term expectation

Kairos summary

  • Prices have retreated from Feb-Mar peak

  • Supply is in a downtrend and although demand is trending up, but we still expect to see a supply surplus in 2012, which weighs on prices

  • High inventories and low cost drivers suggest prices will continue to fall

Aluminium

  • Supply and demand are both in uptrend, a small supply surplus is forecast until the summer

  • Inventories on historic average, but declining

  • Weaker Chinese growth and renewed European debt woes have weighed prices down

  • Expecting to see sideways movement for a while

Crude Oil

  • We have a supply surplus in the Nordic region

  • Water levels in dams are high and rising fast as snow melting gets underway now

  • Coal and CO2 prices are trending down

  • Technical analysis suggests mostlysideways movement

Electricity

  • Container freight took off from $1000 to $1700 from early March to late April

  • Both supply and demand is growing, but there is still a clear supply surplus

  • Technical analysis foresees a medium term uptrend peaking sometime in Q4, meaning prices will remain at high levels for now

Graph not up to date

Cont. freight

Source: Mintec Datagain, Kairos Commodities, Reuters


Plastics nearing short term peak kraftliner has started a short term price increase

Plastics nearing short term peak, Kraftliner has started a short term price increase

Short term expectation

Kairos summary

1 year price development

  • Ethelyne is the main input to PE, and is in a downtrend, exerting upwards price pressure

  • Demand is still weak due to slow economic growth

  • Cost of main input Naphta is trending up

  • Currently prices are in a short term uptrend, expected to peak in Q2 and then fall back

PE

  • Supply and demand are trending down. Demand falls more than supply and yields a supply surplus

  • Cost drivers are up

  • Expect to see a short term price uptrend continuing a little further into Q2

PP

  • Norwegian factory Peterson closed in March removing ~10% of European Kraftliner supply

  • Main cost drivers are in a down trend

  • Demand is modest with slow economic growth

  • Kraftliner broke into uptrend at the of April, technical analysis suggest we see at 10% increase peaking in June-July

Kraftliner

Source: Mintec Datagain, Kairos Commodities, Reuters


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