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Time Value of Money Bond Valuation Risk and Return Stock Valuation PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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WEB CHAPTER 28 Basic Financial Tools: A Review. Time Value of Money Bond Valuation Risk and Return Stock Valuation. Time lines show timing of cash flows. 0. 1. 2. 3. i%. CF 0. CF 1. CF 2. CF 3.

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Slide1 l.jpg

WEB CHAPTER 28Basic Financial Tools: A Review

  • Time Value of Money

  • Bond Valuation

  • Risk and Return

  • Stock Valuation


Slide2 l.jpg

Time lines show timing of cash flows.

0

1

2

3

i%

CF0

CF1

CF2

CF3

Tick marksat ends of periods, so Time 0 is today; Time 1 is the end of Period 1; or the beginning of Period 2.


Time line for a 100 lump sum due at the end of year 2 l.jpg

Time line for a $100 lump sum due at the end of Year 2.

0

1

2 Year

i%

100


Time line for an ordinary annuity of 100 for 3 years l.jpg

Time line for an ordinary annuity of $100 for 3 years.

0

1

2

3

i%

100

100

100


What s the fv of an initial 100 after 1 2 and 3 years if i 10 l.jpg

What’s the FV of an initial $100 after1, 2, and 3 years if i = 10%?

0

1

2

3

10%

100

FV = ?

FV = ?

FV = ?

Finding FVs (moving to the right

on a time line) is called compounding.


Slide6 l.jpg

After 1 year:

FV1= PV + INT1 = PV + PV (i)

= PV(1 + i)

= $100(1.10)

= $110.00.

After 2 years:

FV2= PV(1 + i)2

= $100(1.10)2

= $121.00.


Slide7 l.jpg

After 3 years:

FV3= PV(1 + i)3

= $100(1.10)3

= $133.10.

In general,

FVn= PV(1 + i)n.


What s the fv in 3 years of 100 received in year 2 at 10 l.jpg

What’s the FV in 3 years of $100 received in Year 2 at 10%?

0

1

2

3

10%

100

110


What s the fv of a 3 year ordinary annuity of 100 at 10 l.jpg

What’s the FV of a 3-year ordinary annuity of $100 at 10%?

0

1

2

3

10%

100

100

100

110

121

FV= 331


Slide10 l.jpg

N

I/YR

PV

PMT

FV

Financial Calculator Solution

INPUTS

3 10 0 -100

331.00

OUTPUT

Have payments but no lump sum PV, so enter 0 for present value.


What s the pv of 100 due in 2 years if i 10 l.jpg

What’s the PV of $100 due in 2 years if i = 10%?

Finding PVs is discounting, and it’s the reverse of compounding.

0

1

2

10%

100

PV = ?


Slide12 l.jpg

Solve FVn = PV(1 + i )n for PV:

2

1

PV

=

$100

=

$100

PVIF

i,

n

1.10

=

$100

0.8264

=

$82.64.


What s the pv of this ordinary annuity l.jpg

What’s the PV of this ordinary annuity?

0

1

2

3

10%

100

100

100

90.91

82.64

75.13

248.69 = PV


Slide14 l.jpg

N

I/YR

PV

PMT

FV

INPUTS

3 10 100 0

OUTPUT

-248.69

Have payments but no lump sum FV, so enter 0 for future value.


Slide15 l.jpg

How much do you need to save each month for 30 years in order to retire on $145,000 a year for 20 years, i = 10%?

months before retirement

years after retirement

1

2

360

1

2

19

20

0

...

...

PMT

PMT

PMT

-145k

-145k

-145k

-145k


How much must you have in your account on the day you retire if i 10 l.jpg

How much must you have in your account on the day you retire if i = 10%?

years after retirement

0

1

2

19

20

...

...

-145k

-145k

-145k

-145k

How much do you need on this date?


You need the present value of a 20 year 145k annuity or 1 234 467 l.jpg

N

I/YR

PV

FV

You need the present value of a20- year 145k annuity--or $1,234,467.

INPUTS

2010-145000 0

PMT

OUTPUT

1,234,467


How much do you need to save each month for 30 years in order to have the 1 234 467 in your account l.jpg

How much do you need to save each month for 30 years in order to have the $1,234,467 in your account?

You need $1,234,467

on this date.

months before retirement

1

2

360

0

...

...

PMT

PMT

PMT


Slide19 l.jpg

N

I/YR

PV

FV

You need a payment such that the future value of a 360-period annuity earning 10%/12 per period is $1,234,467.

INPUTS

360 10/12 0 1234467

PMT

OUTPUT

546.11

It will take an investment of $546.11 per month to fund your retirement.


Key features of a bond l.jpg

Key Features of a Bond

1.Par value: Face amount; paid at maturity. Assume $1,000.

2.Coupon interest rate: Stated interest rate. Multiply by par value to get dollars of interest.

Generally fixed.

(More…)


Slide21 l.jpg

3.Maturity: Years until bond

must be repaid. Declines.

4.Issue date: Date when bond

was issued.


Slide22 l.jpg

PV annuity

PV maturity value

PV annuity

$ 614.46

385.54

$1,000.00

=

=

=

The bond consists of a 10-year, 10% annuity of $100/year plus a $1,000 lump sum at t = 10:

INPUTS

1010 100 1000

NI/YR PV PMTFV

-1,000

OUTPUT


Slide23 l.jpg

What would happen if expected inflation rose by 3%, causing r =13%?

INPUTS

1013 100 1000

NI/YR PV PMTFV

-837.21

OUTPUT

When rd rises, above the coupon rate, the bond’s value falls below par, so it sells at a discount.


What would happen if inflation fell and r d declined to 7 l.jpg

What would happen if inflation fell, and rd declined to 7%?

INPUTS

10 7 100 1000

NI/YR PV PMTFV

-1,210.71

OUTPUT

If coupon rate > rd, price rises above par, and bond sells at a premium.


Slide25 l.jpg

The bond was issued 20 years ago and now has 10 years to maturity. What would happen to its value over time if the required rate of return remained at 10%, or at 13%,or at 7%?


Slide26 l.jpg

Bond Value ($)

rd = 7%.

1,372

1,211

rd = 10%.

M

1,000

837

rd = 13%.

775

3025 20 15 10 5 0

Years remaining to Maturity


Slide27 l.jpg

  • At maturity, the value of any bond must equal its par value.

  • The value of a premium bond would decrease to $1,000.

  • The value of a discount bond would increase to $1,000.

  • A par bond stays at $1,000 if rd remains constant.


Assume the following investment alternatives l.jpg

Economy

Prob.

T-Bill

HT

Coll

USR

MP

Recession0.10 8.0%-22.0%28.0% 10.0%-13.0%

Below avg. 0.20 8.0 -2.0 14.7 -10.0 1.0

Average 0.40 8.0 20.0 0.0 7.0 15.0

Above avg. 0.20 8.0 35.0 -10.0 45.0 29.0

Boom 0.108.0 50.0 -20.0 30.0 43.0

1.00

Assume the FollowingInvestment Alternatives


What is unique about the t bill return l.jpg

What is unique about the T-bill return?

  • The T-bill will return 8% regardless of the state of the economy.

  • Is the T-bill riskless? Explain.


Do the returns of ht and collections move with or counter to the economy l.jpg

Do the returns of HT and Collections move with or counter to the economy?

  • HT moves with the economy, so it is positively correlated with the economy. This is the typical situation.

  • Collections moves counter to the economy. Such negative correlation is unusual.


Calculate the expected rate of return on each alternative l.jpg

Calculate the expected rate of return on each alternative.

^

r = expected rate of return.

^

rHT = 0.10(-22%) + 0.20(-2%)

+ 0.40(20%) + 0.20(35%)

+ 0.10(50%) = 17.4%.


Slide32 l.jpg

^

r

HT

17.40%

Market

15.00

USR

13.80

T-bill

8.00

Collections

1.74

  • HT has the highest rate of return.

  • Does that make it best?


What is the standard deviation of returns for each alternative l.jpg

What is the standard deviationof returns for each alternative?

= Standard deviation.

.


Slide34 l.jpg

.

HT:

= ((-22 - 17.4)2 0.10 + (-2 - 17.4)2 0.20

+ (20 - 17.4)2 0.40 + (35 - 17.4)2 0.20

+ (50 - 17.4)2 0.10)1/2 = 20.0%.

T-bills = 0.0%.

Coll=13.4%.

USR=18.8%.

M=15.3%.

HT = 20.0%.


The coefficient of variation cv is calculated as follows l.jpg

The coefficient of variation (CV) is calculated as follows:

^

/r.

CVHT= 20.0%/17.4% = 1.15  1.2.

CVT-bills= 0.0%/8.0% = 0.

CVColl= 13.4%/1.74% = 7.7.

CVUSR= 18.8%/13.8% = 1.36  1.4.

CVM= 15.3%/15.0% = 1.0.


Slide36 l.jpg

Prob.

T-bill

USR

HT

0

8

13.8

17.4

Rate of Return (%)


Slide37 l.jpg

  • Standard deviation measures the stand-alone risk of an investment.

  • The larger the standard deviation, the higher the probability that returns will be far below the expected return.

  • Coefficient of variation is an alternative measure of stand-alone risk.


Expected return versus risk l.jpg

Expected Return versus Risk

Expected

Risk, 

CV

Security

return

HT 17.4% 20.0%1.2

Market15.015.3 1.0

USR13.8 18.81.4

T-bills8.00.00.0

Collections1.74 13.4 7.7

  • Which alternative is best?


Portfolio risk and return l.jpg

Portfolio Risk and Return

Assume a two-stock portfolio with $50,000 in HT and $50,000 in Collections.

^

Calculate rp and p.


Portfolio return r p l.jpg

Portfolio Return, rp

^

^

rp is a weighted average:

n

^

^

rp = wiri

i = 1

^

rp = 0.5(17.4%) + 0.5(1.74%) = 9.6%.

^

^

^

rp is between rHT and rColl.


Alternative method l.jpg

Alternative Method

Estimated Return

Economy

Prob.

HT

Coll.

Port.

Recession 0.10-22.0% 28.0% 3.0%

Below avg. 0.20 -2.0 14.7 6.4

Average 0.40 20.0 0.0 10.0

Above avg. 0.20 35.0 -10.0 12.5

Boom 0.10 50.0 -20.0 15.0

^

rp = (3.0%)0.10 + (6.4%)0.20 + (10.0%)0.40

+ (12.5%)0.20 + (15.0%)0.10 = 9.6%.

(More...)


Slide42 l.jpg

  • p = ((3.0 - 9.6)2 0.10 + (6.4 - 9.6)2 0.20 + (10.0 - 9.6)2 0.40 + (12.5 - 9.6)2 0.20 + (15.0 - 9.6)2 0.10)1/2 = 3.3%.

  • p is much lower than:

    • either stock (20% and 13.4%).

    • average of HT and Coll (16.7%).

  • The portfolio provides average return but much lower risk. The key here is negative correlation.


Portfolio standard deviation in general l.jpg

Portfolio standard deviation in general

p= Portfolio standard deviation.

Where w1 and w2 are portfolio weights and r1,2 is the correlation coefficient between stock 1 and 2.


Two stock portfolios l.jpg

Two-Stock Portfolios

  • Two stocks can be combined to form a riskless portfolio if r = -1.0.

  • Risk is not reduced at all if the two stocks have r = +1.0.

  • In general, stocks have r  0.65, so risk is lowered but not eliminated.

  • Investors typically hold many stocks.

  • What happens when r = 0?


Portfolio beta l.jpg

Portfolio beta

bp = Portfolio beta

bp = w1b1 + w2b2

Where w1 and w2 are portfolio weights, and b1 and b2 are stock betas. For our portfolio of 50% HT and 50% Collections,

bp = 0.5(1.30) + 0.5(-0.87) = 0.215  0.22.


Slide46 l.jpg

What would happen to the riskiness of an average portfolio as more randomly picked stocks were added?

  • p would decrease because the added stocks would not be perfectly correlated, but rp would remain relatively constant.

^


Slide47 l.jpg

Prob.

Large

2

1

0

15

Return

135% ; Large20%.


Slide48 l.jpg

p (%)

Company-Specific (Diversifiable) Risk

35

Stand-Alone Risk, p

20

0

Market Risk

102030 40 2,000+

# Stocks in Portfolio


Stand alone market diversifiable l.jpg

Stand-alone Market Diversifiable

= + .

risk risk risk

Market risk is that part of a security’s stand-alone risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification.

Firm-specific, or diversifiable, risk is that part of a security’s stand-alone risk that can be eliminated by diversification.


Slide50 l.jpg

Conclusions

  • As more stocks are added, each new stock has a smaller risk-reducing impact on the portfolio.

  • p falls very slowly after about 40 stocks are included. The lower limit for p is about 20% = M .

  • By forming well-diversified portfolios, investors can eliminate about half the riskiness of owning a single stock.


Slide51 l.jpg

Can an investor holding one stock earn a return commensurate with its risk?

  • No. Rational investors will minimize risk by holding portfolios.

  • They bear only market risk, so prices and returns reflect this lower risk.

  • The one-stock investor bears higher (stand-alone) risk, so the return is less than that required by the risk.


Slide52 l.jpg

How is market risk measured for individual securities?

  • Market risk, which is relevant for stocks held in well-diversified portfolios, is defined as the contribution of a security to the overall riskiness of the portfolio.

  • It is measured by a stock’s beta coefficient, which measures the stock’s volatility relative to the market.

  • What is the relevant risk for a stock held in isolation?


How are betas calculated l.jpg

How are betas calculated?

  • Run a regression with returns on the stock in question plotted on the Y- axis and returns on the market portfolio plotted on the X-axis.

  • The slope of the regression line, which measures relative volatility, is defined as the stock’s beta coefficient, or b.


Slide54 l.jpg

_

ri

Beta Illustration

Illustration of beta calculation:

Regression line:

ri = -2.59 + 1.44 rM .

.

20

15

10

5

^

^

.

YearrMri

115% 18%

2 -5-10

312 16

_

-505101520

rM

-5

-10

.


How is beta calculated l.jpg

How is beta calculated?

  • The regression line, and hence beta, can be found using a calculator with a regression function or a spreadsheet program. In this example, b = 1.44.

  • Analysts typically use five years’ of monthly returns to establish the regression line.


How is beta interpreted l.jpg

How is beta interpreted?

  • If b = 1.0, stock has average risk.

  • If b > 1.0, stock is riskier than average.

  • If b < 1.0, stock is less risky than average.

  • Most stocks have betas in the range of 0.5 to 1.5.

  • Can a stock have a negative beta?


Slide57 l.jpg

_

b = 1.30

ri

HT

40

20

b = 0

T-Bills

_

rM

-2002040

-20

b = -0.87

Collections

Regression Lines of Three Alternatives


Expected return versus market risk l.jpg

Expected Return versus Market Risk

Expected

Risk,b

Security

return

HT17.4%1.30

Market15.01.00

USR13.80.89

T-bills 8.00.00

Collections1.74 -0.87

  • Which of the alternatives is best?


Use the sml to calculate each alternative s required return l.jpg

Use the SML to calculate eachalternative’s required return.

  • The Security Market Line (SML) is part of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).

  • SML: ri = rRF + (rM - rRF)bi .

  • Assume kRF = 8%; rM = rM = 15%.

  • RPM = rM - rRF = 15% - 8% = 7%.

^


Required rates of return l.jpg

Required Rates of Return

rHT = 8.0% + (15.0% - 8.0%)(1.30)

= 8.0% + (7%)(1.30)

= 8.0% + 9.1%= 17.1%.

rM= 8.0% + (7%)(1.00)= 15.0%.

rUSR= 8.0% + (7%)(0.89)= 14.2%.

rT-bill= 8.0% + (7%)(0.00)= 8.0%.

rColl= 8.0% + (7%)(-0.87)= 1.9%.


Expected versus required returns l.jpg

Expected versus Required Returns

^

r

r

HT 17.4% 17.1% Undervalued

Market 15.0 15.0 Fairly valued

USR 13.8 14.2 Overvalued

T-bills 8.0 8.0 Fairly valued

Coll 1.74 1.9 Overvalued


Slide62 l.jpg

SML:

ri = 8% + (15% - 8%) bi.

ri (%)

.

HT

.

.

rM = 15

rRF = 8

Market

.

USR

T-bills

.

Coll.

Risk, bi

-1 0 1 2

SML and Investment Alternatives


What is the required rate of return on the ht collections portfolio l.jpg

What is the required rate of returnon the HT/Collections portfolio?

rp= Weighted average r

= 0.5(17%) + 0.5(2%) = 9.5%.

Or use SML:

bp= 0.22 (Slide 28-45)

rp= rRF + (rM - rRF) bp

= 8.0% + (15.0% - 8.0%)(0.22)

= 8.0% + 7%(0.22) = 9.5%.


Slide64 l.jpg

Stock Value = PV of Dividends

.

What is a constant growth stock?

One whose dividends are expected to

grow forever at a constant rate, g.


For a constant growth stock l.jpg

For a constant growth stock,

.

.

.

If g is constant, then:

.


Slide66 l.jpg

$

0.25

If g > r, P0 = negative

0

Years (t)


What happens if g r s l.jpg

What happens if g > rs?

  • If rs< g, get negative stock price, which is nonsense.

  • We can’t use model unless (1) g  rs and (2) g is expected to be constant forever. Because g must be a long-term growth rate, it cannot be  rs.


Assume beta 1 2 r rf 7 and r m 12 what is the required rate of return on the firm s stock l.jpg

Assume beta = 1.2, rRF = 7%, and rM = 12%. What is the required rate of return on the firm’s stock?

Use the SML to calculate rs:

rs= rRF + (rM - rRF)bFirm

= 7% + (12% - 7%) (1.2)

= 13%.


Slide69 l.jpg

D0 was $2.00 and g is a constant 6%. Find the expected dividends for the next 3 years, and their PVs. rs = 13%.

0

1

2

3

4

g = 6%

D0 = 2.00

2.12

2.2472

2.3820

13%

1.8761

1.7599

1.6508


What s the stock s market value d 0 2 00 r s 13 g 6 l.jpg

D0(1 + g)

rs - g

D1

rs - g

= =

$2.12

$2.12

= = = $30.29.

0.13 - 0.06

0.07

What’s the stock’s market value? D0 = 2.00, rs = 13%, g = 6%.

Constant growth model:


Slide71 l.jpg

Rearrange model to rate of return form:

^

Then, rs= $2.12/$30.29 + 0.06

= 0.07 + 0.06 = 13%.


Slide72 l.jpg

If we have supernormal growth of 30% for 3 yrs, then a long-run constant g = 6%, what is P0? rs is still 13%.

^

  • Can no longer use constant growth model.

  • However, growth becomes constant after 3 years.


Slide73 l.jpg

Nonconstant growth followed by constant

growth:

0

1

2

3

4

rs=13%

g = 30%

g = 30%

g = 30%

g = 6%

D0 = 2.00 2.603.38 4.394 4.6576

2.3009

2.6470

3.0453

46.1140

^

54.1072 = P0


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