The NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Suite: Major Upgrade Plans for FY14

1. William. M. LapentaDirector, National Centers for Environmental PredictionNOAA/NWSGeoff DiMego , John Derber , Yuejian Zhu , Hendrik Tolman , Vijay Tallapragada, Shrinivas Moorthi , Mike Ek , Mark Iredell, Stan Benjamin The NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Suite: Major Upgrade Plans for FY14 Prepared by the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

2. Global Observing System Computers (WCOSS, AWIPS2) Data Assimilation, Modeling, Ensembles and Post Processing NOAA Operational Data Assimilation and Modeling Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on numerical prediction Three Major Components of the Numerical Prediction Enterprise…. NOAA Science Serving Society….

3. NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission Lead Time and Accuracy! • Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA • Required for agency to meet service-based metrics • National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics (* Government Performance & Results Act) • Hurricane Track and Intensity • Winter Storm Warning • Precipitation Threat • Flood Warning • Marine Wind Speed and Wave Height • Operational numerical guidance: • Foundational tools used by government, public and private industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive U.S. economic growth 3

4. NOAA’s Operational Numerical Guidance Suite (Jan 2014) Climate Forecast System (CFS) Regional Hurricane GFDL WRF-NMM Waves WaveWatch III SURGE SLOSH 3D-VAR DA 3D-VAR DA Ecosystem EwE GFS, MOM4, NOAH, Sea Ice Ocean HYCOM P-SURGE SLOSH Regional Bays • Great Lakes (POM) • N Gulf of Mexico (FVCOM) • Columbia R. (SELFE) • Chesapeake (ROMS) • Tampa (ROMS) • Delaware (ROMS) ESTOFS ADCIRC Global Forecast System (GFS) 3D-En-Var DA Regional NAM NMMB NOAH 3D-VAR DA Dispersion HYSPLIT Global Spectral NOAH Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Air Quality Short-Range Ensemble Forecast 21 GFS Members CMAQ WRF(ARW, NMM) NMMB Rapid Refresh High Res Windows 3D-VAR DA WRF(ARW, NMM) & NMMB WRF ARW North American Ensemble Forecast System Space Weather North American Land Surface Data Assimilation System High Resolution RR NEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC) 3D-VAR DA GEFS, Canadian Global Model WRF ARW ENLIL GFS & GOCART NOAH Land Surface Model 4

5. Numerical Guidance Suite Execution WCOSS NOAA Supercomputer 24-h Cycle 01 February 2014 SREF Para RAPv2 Para HyCOM Number of Nodes GEFS NAM GFS SREF 12 18 00 06 00 CFS RAP Time of Day (UTC)

6. NRC Recommendation I.b: Numerical Weather Prediction: “The National Weather Service (NWS) global and regional numerical weather prediction systems should be of the highest quality and accuracy, with improvements driven by user needs and scientific advances. To achieve this goal, the NWS should give priority to upgrading its data assimilation system and increasing the resolution of its deterministic and ensemble modeling systems.” Can’t forget physics and Post Processing

7. The NOAA Modeling Strategy… High Level Perspective • Moving away from the “model of the day” • Continue to pursue multi-model approach to ensembles • Don’t forget: ensemble systems only as good as the modeling system it is built from • Priorities for deterministic development are clear: • Data assimilation (methodology and observations) • Model physics • Why do we continue to underplay this important part of the enterprise? • Clouds, microphysics, radiation, land, ocean, ice, aerosols….includes coupling • Resolution—horizontal and vertical • Dynamic core • Must consider advanced HPC technologies but don’t forget about the science • Regional systems shift to convection permitting applications • NOAA encouraged to consider unified modeling approach (UCACN)

8. 2014 HWRF pre-implementation test plan Continuing on the same path of extensive testing of individual upgrades and their combination for multiple seasons that resulted in higher confidence in the model. Joint NHC/EMC collaboration during the pre-implementation testing. 8

9. Integrate Research Community into the Model development and Transition Proces Implementation Phase • SPA’s build NCO parallel from RFC’s • 30-day NCO parallel • Test code stability • Test dataflow • Products to NCEP Centers and EMC code developers • NCEP Centers • Evaluate impact • Assessments to NCEP OD R&D and Pre-Implementation Phase Systematic Testing • EMC Change Control Board • Scientific Integrity • Product Quality • EMC Mgmt Approval • ACCOUNTABILITY • 30-day NCO parallel stable • NCEP centers approve • ACCOUNTABILITY • Briefing to NCEP Director for final approval • ACCOUNTABILITY • Generate RFC’s • Submit RFC’s to NCO Implementation

10. Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Scope: • Improve hurricane forecast system/global forecast system to reduce error in intensity and track • Make better use of existing observing systems; define requirements for future systems to enhance research and operations capabilities and impacts • Expand and improve forecaster tools and applications to add value to model guidance Vision • Organize the hurricane community to dramatically improve numerical forecast guidance to NHC in 5-10 years Goals • Reduce numerical forecast errors in track and intensity by 20% in 5 years, 50% in 10 years • Extend forecast guidance to 7 days with today’s skill at 5 days • Increase probability of detecting rapid intensification at day 1 to 90% and 60% at day 5

11. Model Development: Incremental is not a “Bad” Word… • Operational: • Systematic assessment and testing with well defined annual development cycles • Holistic end-to-end system tested • Established metrics and baselines • Customers included in process—final approval • Leads to consistent incremental improvement • Research: • Development based on process oriented approach driven by funding program priorities • Often event driven (case studies) • Baseline: a control run that is not a baseline • Studies emphasize limited changes in the system • No independent customer feedback--metrics 2010-2012 Atlantic Basin Intensity Error (Kts) Forecast Hour • Operational systematic end-to-end testing • Increasing the gap between HWRF and AHW for skill and computational efficiency • Annual incremental improvements produce revolutionary results

12. Forcing Factors Shaping NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance • Emerging Requirements • Weather Ready Nation • High impact events • Weather to climate—seamless suite of guidance and products • Science and Technology Advances • Observing systems • High performance computing • Data dissemination • Numerical Guidance Systems • Data assimilation (methodology) • Modeling (physics, coupling & dynamics) • Ensembles (construction—initialization, membership, etc.) • Intelligent post processing • Predictability • convective systems • Seasonal to interannual

13. Major System Upgrades (Planned) Q1-FY14 to Q1-FY15 • List does not include NOS or MDL systems

14. SREF Interim Upgrade PackageSystem Configuration ModificationsTo Be Implemented March 2014 Initial conditions: • replace GFS land states (too moist) with NDAS land states in NMM & ARW members; • correct inadvertent use of global initial conditions (too moist) with use of RAP for ARW members to reduce the surface wet and cold biases NOAH LSM: • eliminate negative soil moisture fractions for NMM and ARW members; • eliminate “urban swamp” (causing too cold surface temperature over urban regions during heat wave periods) for NMMB members GFS physics: 2 NMMB members to produce compatible cloud & ceiling guidance with the rest of SREF members Post-Processor:remove use of snow in diagnosing cloud base height Mapping:(eastward shift) in NMM member’s pressure-grib output files

15. SREF Prob > 100mm (~4”)/36hr Application to high-impact weather:2013 Boulder FloodSREF consistently indicating a historical heavy rain event over Boulder, CO region days ahead (Hamill 2014; plots from Rich Grumm) 81hr 75hr 69hr 58hr 63hr 52hr SREF Prob > 150mm (~6”)/36hr 75hr 69hr 81hr 52hr 63hr 58hr Observed 36hr (00z, Sept. 12 – 12z, Sept. 13, 2013) accumulated precipitation.

16. Global Forecast System Evolution: 2014 to 2018

17. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) • Where will we get the biggest bang for the buck? • Membership • Horizontal resolution • Vertical resolution • Perturbations • Are reforecasts a new emerging requirement? • Will require extensive testing

18. ED-4DVAR: T254L64 Experiments • 3DVAR: 2x100 iterations • Hybrid 3D EnVar: 80 member T126L46 Ens., fully coupled EnKF update, TLNMC on total increment, 75% ensemble & 25% static • Hybrid 4D EnVar: 1x150 iteration, TLNMC on all time levels, Hourly TC relocation

19. NAM Implemented 18 October 2011 NEMS based NMM Parent remains at 12 km Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr ~4 km CONUS nest ~6 km Alaska nest ~3 km HI & PR nests ~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET possible Rapid Refresh Scheduled implementation 20 March 2012 WRF-based ARW Use of GSI analysis Expanded 13 km Domain to include Alaska Experimental 3 km HRRR NCEP Mesoscale Modeling for CONUS: WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010 RUC-13 CONUS domain Original CONUS domain Experimental 3 km HRRR

20. Verification from 1 October 2013 – 15 January 2014 Test Results for NAM FY14 Upgrade Package 24-h QPF scores (24-60 h Forecasts) Parallel Equitable Threat Ops Pressure (mb) .50 .50 1.5 1.5 .01 .01 .25 .25 .75 .75 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 Day 1 = Black Day 2 = Red Day 3 = Blue .10 .10 1.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 Precipitation Threshold (Inches) Precipitation Threshold (Inches) BIAS 10 6 8 12 4 Vector Wind RMS (m/s) 12km CONUS 12-km Ops 12-km Ops 12-km Para 12-km Para 4-km Ops 4-km Ops • Physics Modifications: • GWD/mountain blocking; more responsive to sub-grid scale terrain variability • BMJ convection : moister convective profiles, convection triggers less, increase 12 km bias • RRTM radiation, latest version • Ferrier-Aligo microphysics, tuned to improve severe storm depiction • Improved snow depth algorithm in LSM 4-km Para 4-km Para • Data Assimilation Modifications: • Hybrid variational-ensemble analysis with global EnKF • New satellite bias correction algorithm (same as in FY14 global upgrade) • Cloud/radar assimilation in NDAS (planned)

21. Rapid Refresh andHRRR NOAA hourly updated models 13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) (mesoscale) Version 2 – scheduled NCEP implementation Q2 (25 Feb 14) RAP 3km HRRR (storm-scale) HRRR High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Scheduled NCEP Implementation 15 July 2014 Courtesy of Stan Benjamin

22. RAPv2enhancements from RAPv1 • Major changes for RAPv2 Assimilation • hybrid ensemble assimilation • soil/PBL/surface/cloud assimilation • Model – • - land-surface, PBL, cloud physics Courtesy of Stan Benjamin

23. Summary: RAPv2 vs. RAPv1 RMS vector wind error Vs. raobs Sep-Nov 2013 RAPv1 vs. RAPv2 Winds -- Consistent RAPv2 improvement, for both upper-air and surface Moisture -- Improved RAPv2 RH forecasts aloft. Reduced RMS 2m dewpoint error, more so at night RAPv1 better RAPv2 better Temperature -- Similar RAPv2 skill for upper-air. Improved skill for surface in warm season Precipitation and clouds – Improvement for precipitation,slight improvement for ceiling Courtesy of Stan Benjamin

24. RAPv2 vs. HRRR – hourly updated Courtesy of Stan Benjamin

25. 3-km HRRR – applications to aviation, severe weather, energy HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones 13-km 6hr RAP reflectivity forecast HRRR 6hr reflectivity forecast 13-km Resolution Parameterized Convection 3-km Resolution Explicit Convection 07 June 2012 NO STORM STRUCTURE NO ESTIMATE OF PERMEABILITY ACCURATE STORM STRUCTURE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF PERMABILITY 5 PM EDT Radar observed Courtesy of Stan Benjamin

26. Operational HRRR Data Distribution • NCEP working with a team across NWS to make a set of 2-D fields on the 2.5km CONUS NDFD grid available in AWIPS and on NOAAPORT as close to Day 1 as possible • Requirements for the dataset are being driven by the field, but will be limited by the current capacity of the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN). I suspect we'll have a phase 1, and then an expansion of fields after the upcoming SBN expansion • We will also put 2-D and 3-D output grids on the NCEP ftp server

27. FY15 SREF Upgrade Attributes • Model changes • 3-model system becomes 2-model system (NMMB and ARW) • Increase in both horizontal (16km to 12-14km) and vertical resolution (35 to 45 levels) • Newer model version (3.4.1. to 3.4.2) • Forecast diversity enhancement • Use three control analyses (GDAS, NDAS, RR) • Increasing physics diversity • Use of EnKF IC perturbations from hybrid Ens-VarGSIensemble • Adding stochastic physics perturbation • Post processing/calibration • Improve ensemble clustering algorithm (continuity in time) • Ensemble products • Adding “Ensemble Anomaly Forecast” using climatology data • Adding more output fields tailored for renewable energy and dispersion modeling communities

28. NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Ocean and Ice Coupling GOALS • Extend NEMS to be a flexible, unified, coupled operational framework that links NOAA modeling centers (EMC, GFDL, CPC, ESRL, SWPC) • Initiate development of CFSv3 and improve predictive capability for medium range and longer time scales • Promote interoperability and knowledge transfer across NOAA, DoD, NASA, NSF, and other agencies by using community interface standards MODELING SYSTEM • Models: NEMS GFS/GSM and NMM-B atmospheres+ HYCOM and MOM5 oceans + sea ice CICE model • Infrastructure: ESMF-based, with additional conventions from the NUOPC consortium • Timeline: Beginning scientific validation March 2014 MORE INFORMATIONhttps://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/nuopc/ncepplans Courtesy of Cecelia DeLuca

29. Things That Keep Me Up at Night… • How will the suite evolve as the resolution of the global systems increase? • GFS capable of satisfying NAM requirements? • GEFS capable of satisfying SREF requirements? • Non-hydrostatic global model and medium range reforecasts from GEFS becoming new requirements? • Will the regional systems shift to convection permitting applications? • HRRRE & NARRE capable of satisfying WOF requirements • What will the week 3+ to seasonal guidance system look like? • Can/should GEFS be extended to 30-days? (coupling required?) • What level of complexity is required in CFS? • Can the NMME be developed and sustained? • How does all the above impact down stream systems? • How can NOAA engage the scientific community effectively? • How can NOAA engage the stakeholders effectively?

30. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction A.K.A.—the new building…. • Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors • 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC) • NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) • NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) • OAR Air Resources Laboratory • Includes 465 seat auditorium & conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit • Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists • Represents a “Game Changer” in our ability to do business