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Science and management are linked (Holling 1993 Ecol. App.)

Natural Climate Insurance for Pacific Northwest Salmon: Finding the Entangled Bank N. Mantua, R.C. Francis - UW CIG. 1st stream science System is predictable, science of parts ex: the population Experimental, seeks explanation and prediction Implies we need certainty before taking action

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Science and management are linked (Holling 1993 Ecol. App.)

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  1. Natural Climate Insurance for Pacific Northwest Salmon: Finding the Entangled BankN. Mantua, R.C. Francis - UW CIG

  2. 1st stream science System is predictable, science of parts ex: the population Experimental, seeks explanation and prediction Implies we need certainty before taking action Command and Control Management Problem is perceived, a solution for its control is developed (e.g. low salmon production, build a hatchery) Reduce variability to make the system more predictable Science and management are linked(Holling 1993 Ecol. App.)

  3. Science and management are linked • 2nd stream science • Unpredictable, science of integration • ex: the ecosystem • Comparative, seeks understanding, accepts inherent unknowability and unpredictability • The Golden Rule • “Resource management should strive to retain critical types and ranges of variations in ecosystems” (Holling and Meffe 1996)

  4. Our contentions: • Sustainable wild salmon populations and sustainable salmon fisheries are tightly linked. • We have have developed conflicts between those who want to sustain wild salmon populations and those who want to sustain salmon fisheries – has become a “lose – lose” situation. • Where does climate enter in? • treatment of environmental variability, • limitations on ecosystem predictability.

  5. What to do: • De-emphasize run-size prediction. • Emphasize preseason and in-season monitoring of both the resource and its environment. • Focus on strategies that minimize the importance of uncertain climate variability and change scenarios to increase the resilience of short and long-term planning decisions. • Restore natural climate insurance that wild salmon populations must have evolved to survive and thrive in the face of past environmental change.

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