Smart people dumb decisions
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Charlotte Area Society for Human Resource Management August 11, 2014. Smart People, Dumb Decisions*. *Remind You of Someone You K now?. Smart People, Dumb Decisions* (Remind you of someone you know?). Smart People, Dumb Decisions*. *Remind You of Someone You K now?.

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Smart People, Dumb Decisions*

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Smart people dumb decisions

Charlotte Area Society for Human Resource Management

August 11, 2014

Smart People, Dumb Decisions*

*Remind You of Someone You Know?

Smart People,

Dumb Decisions*

(Remind you of someone you know?)


Smart people dumb decisions1

Smart People, Dumb Decisions*

*Remind You of Someone You Know?


Smart people dumb decisions2

Smart People, Dumb Decisions*

*Remind You of Someone You Know?


Smart people dumb decisions

Conventional Capital Budgeting Tools

“The models we’ve developed for choosing decision support tools is dependent on managers being able to accurately determine the level of ambiguity and uncertainty they face.”

Decision Support Tools

Quantitative Multiple Scenario Tools

Case-Based Decision Analysis

Qualitative Scenario Analysis


Smart people dumb decisions

Pea + Pear + Pope =

Better Decisions in Work and Life


Smart people dumb decisions

Past

Emotion

Automatic


Smart people dumb decisions

$31.71

11/01/2011

-51%

16 months

$15.87

04/28/2013


Smart people dumb decisions

$16.97

07/07/2006

-85%

5 years

16 months

$2.60

09/29/2012

$0.56

Today


Smart people dumb decisions

Past

Emotion

Automatic

Reflection


Smart people dumb decisions

99.4%; Prefrontal Cortex; 30 inputs; 7 Focal Points; Pattern Recognition; Emotional Tagging

Automatic System; 80%; “Gut”; Reflective System; 20%; Rational; Dopamine Neurons; Habit


Smart people dumb decisions

Past

Emotion

Automatic

Reflection


Smart people dumb decisions

Promoter of the Faith

1587-1983

(aka The Devil’s Advocate)


Smart people dumb decisions

Canonizations

499

98

17 Years

(1983-2000)

83 Years

(1900-1983)


Smart people dumb decisions

Reflection: Guarding Against Prejudgment

Misleading Experiences

-Uncertainties?

-Relevant experience?

-Misleading experience?

Misleading Prejudgments

-Uncertainties?

-Prejudged the uncertainties?

-Prejudgments supported by evidence?

Source: Think Again; Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead and Andrew Campbell; Harvard Business Press 2008


Smart people dumb decisions

Reflection: Guarding Against Self-Interest

Inappropriate Self-Interest

-Potential for Gain/Loss?

-Contrary to shareholder interests?

-Possibly distort the decision?

Inappropriate Attachments

-Impact on peripheral people or interests?

Source: Think Again; Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead and Andrew Campbell; Harvard Business Press 2008


Smart people dumb decisions

Reflection: Organizational Decision Diagnostic

Unlikely

Optimization

Caution

Self-

Interest

Danger

Caution

Likely

Prejudgment

Unlikely

Source: Rex H. Gale, Smart People, Dumb Decisions 2013; Based Think Again; Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead and Andrew Campbell; Harvard Business Press 2008


Smart people dumb decisions

Reflection: Organizational Decision Diagnostic

Corporate Governance

Who’s Your Chief Devil’s Advocate Officer?

Source: Rex H. Gale, Smart People, Dumb Decisions 2013


Smart people dumb decisions

Personal Reflection Decision Diagnostic

Express contrarian points of view in group meetings

When things are going wrong, you say so immediately

Consciously acknowledge when your past experiences may be influencing your decision

Consciously acknowledge when your emotions may be influencing your decision

Consciously acknowledge when your personal interests may be influencing your decisions

Seriously consider some else’s point of view when it differs from your own

Re-examine your most deeply-held beliefs

Often

Never

Always

Sometimes


Smart people dumb decisions

Reflection: Organizational and Individual Decision Diagnostics


Smart people dumb decisions

Rex Gale, SPHR, HCS

@rexgale

#reflection

#pearbrain #peapearpope

#spdd

[email protected]

[email protected]


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