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Bond valuation

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Bond valuation

The application of the present value concept

Fin351: lecture 3

- Interest rates and compounding
- Some terminology about bonds
- Value bonds
- The yield curve
- Default risk

- Simple interest - Interest earned only on the original investment.
- Compounding interest - Interest earned on interest.
- In Fin 351, we consider compounding interest rates

Example

Simple interest is earned at a rate of 6% for five years on a principal balance of $100.

TodayFuture Years

12345

Interest Earned 6 6 6 6 6

Value100106112118124130

Value at the end of Year 5 = $130

Example

Compound interest is earned at a rate of 6% for five years on $100.

TodayFuture Years

12345

Interest Earned 6.00 6.36 6.74 7.15 7.57

Value100106.00112.36119.10126.25133.82

Value at the end of Year 5 = $133.82

- The interest rate is often quoted as APR, the annual percentage rate.
- If the interest rate is compounded m times in each year and the APR is r, the effective annual interest rate is

i ii iii iv v

Periods Interest Value Annually

per per APR after compounded

year period(i x ii)one year interest rate

1 6% 6% 1.06 6.000%

2 3 6 1.032 = 1.0609 6.090

4 1.5 6 1.0154 = 1.06136 6.136

12 .5 6 1.00512 = 1.06168 6.168

52 .1154 6 1.00115452 = 1.06180 6.180

365 .0164 6 1.000164365 = 1.06183 6.183

Example

Given a monthly rate of 1% (interest is compounded monthly), what is the Effective Annual Rate(EAR)? What is the Annual Percentage Rate (APR)?

Example

If the interest rate 12% annually and interest is compounded semi-annually, what is the Effective Annual Rate (EAR)? What is the Annual Percentage Rate (APR)?

- APR=12%
- EAR=(1+0.06)2-1=12.36%

- Nominal interest rate
- What is it?

- Real interest rate
- What is it?

- Inflation
- What is it?

- Their relationship
- 1+real rate =(1+nominal rate)/(1+inflation)

- Bond – a security or a financial instrument that obligates the issuer (borrower) to make specified payments to the bondholder during some time horizon.
- Coupon - The interest payments made to the bondholder.
- Face Value (Par Value, Face Value, Principal or Maturity Value) - Payment at the maturity of the bond.
- Coupon Rate - Annual interest payment, as a percentage of face value.

- A bond also has (legal) rights attached to it:
- if the borrower doesn’t make the required payments, bondholders can force bankruptcy proceedings
- in the event of bankruptcy, bond holders get paid before equity holders

- A coupon bond that pays coupon of 10% annually, with a face value of $1000, has a discount rate of 8% and matures in three years.
- The coupon payment is $100 annually
- The discount rate is different from the coupon rate.
- In the third year, the bondholder is supposed to get $100 coupon payment plus the face value of $1000.
- Can you visualize the cash flows pattern?

WARNING

The coupon rate IS NOT the discount rate used in the Present Value calculations.

The coupon rate merely tells us what cash flow the bond will produce.

Since the coupon rate is listed as a %, this misconception is quite common.

The price of a bond is the Present Value of all cash flows generated by the bond (i.e. coupons and face value) discounted at the required rate of return.

- Zero coupon bonds are the simplest type of bond (also called stripped bonds, discount bonds)
- You buy a zero coupon bond today (cash outflow) and you get paid back the bond’s face value at some point in the future (called the bond’s maturity )
- How much is a 10-yr zero coupon bond worth today if the face value is $1,000 and the effective annual rate is 8% ?

Face

value

PV

Time=0

Time=t

- P0=1000/1.0810=$463.2
- So for the zero-coupon bond, the price is just the present value of the face value paid at the maturity of the bond
- Do you know why it is also called a discount bond?

The price of a coupon bond is the Present Value of all cash flows generated by the bond (i.e. coupons and face value) discounted at the required rate of return.

Example

What is the price of a 6 % annual coupon bond, with a $1,000 face value, which matures in 3 years? Assume a required return of 5.6%.

Example

What is the price of a 6 % annual coupon bond, with a $1,000 face value, which matures in 3 years? Assume a required return of 5.6%.

Example (continued)

What is the price of the bond if the required rate of return is 6 %?

Example (continued)

What is the price of the bond if the required rate of return is 15 %?

Example (continued)

What is the price of the bond if the required rate of return is 5.6% AND the coupons are paid semi-annually?

Example (continued)

What is the price of the bond if the required rate of return is 5.6% AND the coupons are paid semi-annually?

Example (continued)

Q: How did the calculation change, given semi-annual coupons versus annual coupon payments?

Example (continued)

Q: How did the calculation change, given semi-annual coupons versus annual coupon payments?

Time Periods

Paying coupons twice a year, instead of once doubles the total number of cash flows to be discounted in the PV formula.

Example (continued)

Q: How did the calculation change, given semi-annual coupons versus annual coupon payments?

Time Periods

Paying coupons twice a year, instead of once doubles the total number of cash flows to be discounted in the PV formula.

Discount Rate

Since the time periods are now half years, the discount rate is also changed from the annual rate to the half year rate.

- Current Yield - Annual coupon payments divided by bond price.
- Yield To Maturity (YTM)- Interest rate for which the present value of the bond’s payments equal the market price of the bond.

- A coupon bond that pays coupon of 10% annually, with a face value of $1000, has a discount rate of 8% and matures in three years. It is assumed that the market price of the bond is the same as the present value of the bond.
- What is the current yield?
- What is the yield to maturity.

- First, calculate the bond price
- P=100/1.08+100/1.082+1100/1.083
- =$1,051.54
- Current yield=100/1051.54=9.5%
- YTM=8%

Calculating Yield to Maturity (YTM=r)

If you are given the market price of a bond (P) and the coupon rate, the yield to maturity can be found by solving for r.

Example

What is the YTM of a 6 % annual coupon bond, with a $1,000 face value, which matures in 3 years? The market price of the bond is $1,010.77

- In general, there is no simple formula that can be used to calculate YTM unless for zero coupon bonds
- Calculating YTM by hand can be very tedious. We don’t have this kind of problems in the quiz or exam
- You may use the trial by errors approach get it.

- Can you guess which one is the solution in the previous example?
- 6.6%
- 7.1%
- 6.0%
- 5.6%

- If the coupon rate is larger than the discount rate, the bond price is larger than the face value.
- If the coupon rate is smaller than the discount rate, the bond price is smaller than the face value.

Example: An 8 percent coupon bond has a price of $110 dollars with maturity of 5 years and a face value of $100. Next year, the expected bond price will be $105. If you hold this bond this year, what is the rate of return?

- The expected rate of return for holing the bond this year is (8-5)/110=2.73%
- Price change =105-110=-$5
- Coupon payment=100*8%=$8
- The investment or the initial price=$110

Term Structure of Interest Rates - A listing of bond maturity dates and the interest rates that correspond with each date.

Yield Curve - Graph of the term structure.

- The YTM of corporate bonds is larger than the YTM of government bonds
- Why does this occur?

- Default risk
- The risk associated with the failure of the borrower to make the promised payments

- Default premium
- The amount of the increase of your discount rate

- Investment grade bonds
- Junk bonds