AOGCMs. Equations involved in the construction of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Structure of a General Circulation Model (GCM) Models with coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic layers are termed AOGCMs. Time step involved in integration. Where x is the grid size, c is the
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Equations involved in the construction of General
Circulation Models (GCMs).
Structure of a
Models with coupled
Oceanic layers are
Time step involved
Where x is the
grid size, c is the
Tests of Climate Models
Can AOGCMs “predict” the climate of the past 150 years?
Mean Global temperature trend since 1850
Corrections to Historical Climate Data:
It is necessary to check the derived temperature history using
Independent temperature proxies:
Climate data from
Trends in glaciers
over the past few
Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios
Scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases,
aerosols, etc. for the next century are essential for
the prediction of anthropogenic effects on the
global and regional climates.
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change) has, over the years prepared a number of
such scenarios. In 1992 it released the IS92
scenarios. In 2000, the IPCC proposed a number
of new scenarios, known as the SRES scenarios
SRES Scenario “Storylines”
SRES Storylines continued:
To act as useful inputs to climate models, the SRES
Storylines must be quantified in terms of population growth,
economic growth, energy supplies and usage, mix of
renewable/fossil/nuclear fuels, technology development,
Projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations
Sea ice extent
Changes in ocean pH and Aragonite saturation. Aragonite is a meta-stable form
of calcium carbonate. Calcium carbonate will dissolve at levels below 100%
saturation, removing an important sink of dissolved carbon in the surface ocean.
Sea rise due to thermal expansion
Projections of total sea-level rise due to all causes
Simulations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations
under various emission reduction scenarios.