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AOGCMs. Equations involved in the construction of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Structure of a General Circulation Model (GCM) Models with coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic layers are termed AOGCMs. Time step involved in integration. Where x is the grid size, c is the

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AOGCMs

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AOGCMs


Equations involved in the construction of General

Circulation Models (GCMs).


Structure of a

General Circulation

Model (GCM)

Models with coupled

Atmospheric and

Oceanic layers are

termed AOGCMs

Time step involved

in integration

Where x is the

grid size, c is the

propagation speed


Major AOGCMs


Tests of Climate Models


Can AOGCMs “predict” the climate of the past 150 years?

Mean Global temperature trend since 1850


Corrections to Historical Climate Data:

It is necessary to check the derived temperature history using

Independent temperature proxies:


Climate data from

Boreholes


Coral Bleaching


Trends in glaciers

over the past few

centuries.


Pasterze Glacier,

Austria

2004

1875


Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios


Scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases,

aerosols, etc. for the next century are essential for

the prediction of anthropogenic effects on the

global and regional climates.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change) has, over the years prepared a number of

such scenarios. In 1992 it released the IS92

scenarios. In 2000, the IPCC proposed a number

of new scenarios, known as the SRES scenarios


SRES Scenario “Storylines”


SRES Storylines continued:


To act as useful inputs to climate models, the SRES

Storylines must be quantified in terms of population growth,

economic growth, energy supplies and usage, mix of

renewable/fossil/nuclear fuels, technology development,

etc.


Projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations


A1B


Sea ice extent


Changes in ocean pH and Aragonite saturation. Aragonite is a meta-stable form

of calcium carbonate. Calcium carbonate will dissolve at levels below 100%

saturation, removing an important sink of dissolved carbon in the surface ocean.


Sea rise due to thermal expansion


Projections of total sea-level rise due to all causes


Simulations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations

under various emission reduction scenarios.


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