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Making sense of the current investing environment dennis mitchell executive vice president and chief investment officer

Making sense of the current

investing environment

Dennis Mitchell

Executive Vice-President and

Chief Investment Officer

February 27, 2013


Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compound total returns net of fees (except for figures of one year or less, which are simple total returns) including changes in security value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Sentry Investments and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Sentry Investments nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

The risk meter on the individual fund performance slides is based on the methodology recommended by the Fund Risk Classification Task Force of the Investment Funds Institute of Canada. The Task Force recommends that a risk assessment should be considered relative to the historical volatility risk as measured by the standard deviation of performance for the fund and its benchmark. The Task Force also acknowledges that other types of measurable and non-measurable risk may exist. The Task Force reminds investors that historical performance may not be indicative of future returns and a fund’s historical volatility may not be indicative of future volatility.

Sentry, Sentry Investments and the Sentry logo are trademarks of Sentry Select Capital Corp.


About sentry investments

About Sentry Investments

  • Founded in 1997

  • An independent Canadian asset management company with over $9 billion in assets under management on behalf of Canadian investors

  • Received back-to-back Lipper Fund Awards as Canada’s Best Equity Funds Group in 2011 and 2012

  • One of only three firms to receive four consecutive Brendan Wood International TopGun Asset Management Team Awards (2009 to 2012)

The 2012 Lipper Awards were awarded based on the best risk-adjusted performance over the three-year period ended October 31, 2011. The 2011 Lipper Awards were awarded based on the best risk-adjusted performance over the three-year period ended October 31, 2010. Lipper Inc. is a Thomson Reuters company.


Our investment philosophy

Our investment philosophy

We are interested in:

  • Positive absolute total returns with low volatility

  • Consistent income with the potential for growth

  • Long-term growth in asset value

Cash flow

Capital allocation

Risk analysis

Valuation

Superiorrisk-adjusted returns


Companies that outperform assembled into portfolios that outperform

Companies that outperform assembled into portfolios that outperform

Total portfolio returns (Dec 1986 – May 2012, equal weighted)

Annualized volatility (Dec 1986 – May 2012, equal weighted)

Source: RBC Capital Markets Quantitative Research


Power of compounding revisited investing vs trading

Power of compounding revisited: investing vs. trading

Return generator by time horizon (S&P 500): 1871−2012

Source: www.scribd.com, Mauldin Economics, as at June 30, 2012


Maple strategy

MAPLe strategy

  • Management

    –Track record, motivation and economic alignment

    –Long-term, strategic focus with disciplined execution

    –Passion, commitment, vision

  • Assets

    –Quality, duration, covenants, maintenance

    –Strategic portfolio, difficult to replicate, barriers to entry

    –Strong and enduring cash flow generation

  • Payout ratio

    –Sustainable and appropriate for the level of operating risk

    –Integrated with financial structure

    –Consistent with overall strategy and business economics

  • Leverage

    –Appropriate for the level of operating risk

    –Integrated with payout ratio

    –Strategic and tactical approaches to utilization

We only consider companies that meet at least 3 of these 4 criteria.


63 dividend distribution increases in 2012

63 dividend/distribution increases in 2012

  • REIT Fund distribution increases

    • Retail: 7

    • Industrial: 2

    • Office: 2

    • Seniors’ housing: 2

    • Mortgage: 1

    • Commercial diversified: 7

    • Multi-residential: 5

    • Specialty: 1

    • Grand total: 27 dividend increases

  • Average dividend increase of 7%

  • Infrastructure Fund distribution increases

    • Energy infrastructure: 12

    • Utilities: 11

    • Industrial: 7

    • Toll roads: 1

    • Telecom/REIT: 1

    • Information technology: 1

    • Conglomerate: 3

    • Grand total: 36 dividend increases

  • Average dividend increase of 16%


Making sense of the current investing environment dennis mitchell executive vice president and chief investment officer

Sentry REIT Fund


Case study tricon capital group inc

Case study: Tricon Capital Group Inc.

  • TCN completed its IPO in May 2010 at $6/share structured as an asset- management company that provided financing to developers in Canada and the U.S. We did not participate.

  • Our initial investment came at$4 on May 29, 2012.

  • Our investment thesis was predicated on the following factors:

    • Compelling valuation

    • Diversification of income streams (single family housing)

    • Well aligned management stake

    • Dividend sustainability and growth

      Total return: 82.25%

Source: Bloomberg L.P., Sentry Investments, as at January 21, 2013


Case study interrent real estate investment trust

Case study: Interrent Real Estate Investment Trust

  • Owner and operator of Multi-Residential properties in south-western Ontario

  • In April 2009 the REIT’s largest owners fought a legal battle for control of the entity. The dispute was settled in late 2009.

  • Throughout 2010/2011 we evaluated the new management team (property tours, meetings, and asset performance)

  • Our initial investment was made in December 2011 at $3 and was predicated on the following factors:

    • Compelling valuation

    • Well aligned management team with a proven track record of creating value

    • Distribution sustainability and growth

      Total return: 90.88%

Source: Bloomberg L.P., Sentry Investments, as at January 21, 2013


Sentry infrastructure fund

Sentry Infrastructure Fund


Case study macquarie infrastructure company

Case study: Macquarie Infrastructure Company

  • Company was significantly undervalued due to a complicated operating structure and minimal sell-side coverage

  • Market was completely missing a near-term catalyst that would lead to significant dividend increases

  • Initiated a position at US$27.20, annual dividend of US$0.80/share at the time

  • Today, MIC is trading at US$48.35 and its annual dividend has grown to US$2.75/share

    Total return: 84.7%

Source: Bloomberg L.P., Sentry Investments, as at January 21, 2013


Case study williams company inc

Case study: Williams Company Inc.

  • Mispriced security due to corporate structuring and complicated cash flow profile

  • Market completely under-appreciated the company’s cash flow growth potential and the fact that cash flow was becoming less risky

  • Initiated a position at US$21.50, with an annual dividend of US$0.80/share at the time

  • Today WMB is trading at US$34.75, and its annual dividend has grown to US$1.355/share

    Total return: 62.7%

Source: Bloomberg L.P., Sentry Investments, as at January 21, 2013


What does the sentry equity income sma invest in

What does the Sentry Equity Income SMA invest in?

  • Companies with high return on capital and equity

  • Companies with low leverage

  • Companies with positive and growing free cash flow

  • Management with strong operational experience and ownership of the business

  • Companies that can consistently grow their dividends over time!

    We look for companies that can score at least 3 out of 5 on these metrics.


Sentry equity income sma performance

Sentry equity income SMA performance

Annualized performance returns and top 10 holdings as at January 31, 2013

Performance Source: SegalRogersCasey and Raymond James Ltd. Returns from inception to Sep. 2011 are from the Sentry Canadian Income Fund (gross mutual fund returns). Returns from Oct. 2011 to present are based on a RJ-supplied composite (gross returns).


25 dividend increases in 2012

25 dividend increases in 2012

  • Cross section of industries and the economy

    • Consumer discretionary: 1

    • Energy: 3

    • Financials: 2

    • Health care: 1

    • Industrials: 4

    • Information technology: 2

    • Materials: 4

    • Real estate: 4

    • Communications: 4

    • Grand total: 25 dividend increases


Case study walt disney

Case study: Walt Disney

  • Global entertainment company with operations in cable networks, broadcast television, film studio, theme parks & resorts, and consumer products.

  • Our initial investment came at$42.10 on March 1, 2012.

  • Our investment thesis was predicated on the following factors:

    • Compelling valuation

    • Low leverage

    • Strong brands and high barriers to entry

    • Sustainable dividend growth and conservative payout ratio

    • Management has proven track record of generating solid ROIC and returning excess cash to shareholders

      Total return: 32.42%

Source: Bloomberg L.P., Sentry Investments, as at February 14, 2013


Case study telus corp

Case study: Telus Corp.

  • Telecom company that provides voice, data, internet, and wireless services in Canada.

  • Our initial investment came at$51.40 on July 4, 2011.

  • Our investment thesis was predicated on the following factors:

    • Compelling valuation

    • Favorable wireless momentum and improved wireline trends

    • Generates substantial FCF which supports long-term dividend growth

    • Conservative capital structure

    • Strong management team that has demonstrated disciplined approach to capital allocation decisions

      Total return: 38.27%

Please note that Telus collapsed its share structure on February 8, 2012, exchanging its non-voting shares for voting shares on a one-for-one basis.Sentry Equity Income SMA originally held non-voting shares but now holds voting shares as a result of this exchange. 

Source: Bloomberg L.P., Sentry Investments, as at February 14, 2013


Case study barrick gold corp

Case study: Barrick Gold Corp.

  • International gold company with a portfolio of 27 operating mines located in North America, South America, Australia, and Africa.

  • Our initial investment came at$46.22 on January 24, 2012. Our investment thesis was predicated on the following factors:

    • Compelling valuation

    • Low-cost gold producer

    • Strong cash flow generation

  • We sold our investment at $43.63 on June 5, 2012. Our decision to exit the position was predicated on the following factors:

    • Capital cost escalation

    • Poor capital allocation decisions which resulted in large asset write-downs

      Total return: (4.84%)

Source: Bloomberg L.P., Sentry Investments, as at February 14, 2013


Market outlook

Market outlook

  • Canada

    –Slowing housing market impacts consumer spending

    –Gradual increase in business investment (energy, infrastructure)

    –Slowing job and wage growth

  • United States

    –Housing market recovery drives continued job creation

    –Drag from stimulus removal and potential spending cuts

    –High legislative risk drives market volatility

  • Europe

    –Ring-fencing and back-stopping gradually improves credit markets

    –Peripheral continues to drag down growth in the core

    –Very high legislative risk drives elevated market volatility

  • China

    –Continued economic transition from export- to consumption-led growth

    –7%+ GDP growth coordinated by the new regime

    –Continued investment in global real assets (real estate, infrastructure, metals, energy)

Global economic output likely to increase but at a modest pace.


Making sense of the current investing environment dennis mitchell executive vice president and chief investment officer

Cash flow

Capital allocation

Risk analysis

Valuation

Superiorrisk-adjusted returns

The 2012 Lipper Awards were awarded based on the best risk-adjusted performance over the three-year period ended October 31, 2011. The 2011 Lipper Awards were awarded based on the best risk-adjusted performance over the three-year period ended October 31, 2010. Lipper Inc. is a Thomson Reuters company.


Making sense of the current investing environment dennis mitchell executive vice president and chief investment officer

For more information on Sentry Investments, please contact the Pinkowski-Allen Financial Group:

604.659.8047

[email protected]

www.pinkowskiallen.com


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