AP7

2. AP7 Quantification of the impacts of future floods and low-flows on the economy in the transnational Meuse basin

3. Structure • Definition of the terms in economic losses • Evaluation Questionnaires • German perspective of assessment in flood losses • Drought losses • Literature review • PAWN (NL) • EPIC Grid model (W) • MIKE Basin • Open Questions • Discussion

4. Type of damages • Direct flood losses: • by inundation direct induced damages. • direct flood losses postulate direct contact with water, e.g. buildings, inventory, traffic areas and agricultural areas • direct flood losses are subdivided in immobile and mobile damages. • Indirect flood losses: • indirect damages are not generated by direct contact with water. indirect damages are caused by detraction of economic activities. e.g. • Immediate asset value losses; a short term consequence of inundation of business e.g. loss of production, disruption of economic activities • Induced asset value losses; affected companies are suppliers of not affected companies (chain reaction) • Prosperity damages, a long term consequence in a flood affected area due to lost of confidence in safety, absence of tourism, reduction of investments in the affected area.

5. Evaluation of direct flood losses • Qualitative/Quantitative?

6. Land use category Asset value for land use category [€m-2] Inundation area; -depht Relative damage Damage per land use category [€] rel. damage [%] Waterdepht [m] Stage damage function corresponding to land use Evaluation of direct flood losses • Methodology of Quantitative monetary assessment Bachmann et. al. 2009

7. Evaluation of direct flood losses • Methodology of Qualitative assessment => damage risk map: Expressing the potential damage of vulnerable elements. Based on flood hazard and vulnerability

8. Evaluation of direct flood losses

9. Evaluation of direct flood losses

10. Evaluation of direct flood losses

11. Land use data

12. Land use categories

13. Land use categories

14. Evaluation of indirect losses

15. Indirect losses

16. Uncertainty

17. Land use category Asset value for land use category [€m-2] Inundation area; -depth Relative damage Damage per land use category [€] rel. damage [%] Waterdepht [m] Stage damage function corresponding to land use German perspective • General Approach

18. German perspective • Damage Categories • Spatial Information : ATKIS Data (Vector data 1:25.000) • Aggregation of the ATKIS object groups • to damage categories for meso-scale economic damage • potential analysis • Allocation of damage functions and asset values to corresponding • damage categories

19. German perspective • Example: Damage Category Aggregation

20. German perspective • Damage functions of categories 1. Large number of damage functions in literature 2. Representation of this variety by stochastic interpretation => Probability Density Function for each water level => Population Mean => damage function for economic assessment (Kutschera, 2008)

21. German perspective • Damage function (industry immobile) - including uncertainty => Quantile

22. German perspective • Specific Asset Values (stochastically evaluated)

23. German perspective • Example Wupper (BMBF REISE) • Land use data (ATKIS-Basis-DLM): • Raster data: Resolution 25m x 25m per grid cell • => Considered catchment area 282km2 (467.200 Elements)

24. Open Questions 0. national / partially common/ common approach • Monetary-/ Qualitative Assessment • Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses • Direct flood losses mobile/immobile • Land use data • Determination of Land use categories • Flood damage functions/which hydraulic input variables (t/h/v…) • Assessment of direct/indirect losses

25. Open Questions 1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses - Existing damage functions in flood damage assessment

26. Open Questions 2. Land use data? - Suggestion CORINE data

27. CORINE categories

28. Open Questions 3. Aggregation of Land use data to Categories => CORINE Land use groups?

29. Open Questions 4. Indirect flood losses? - Partially approaches exist but not tested - Data availability? - Time frame / Budget?

30. low flow losses • Considered disciplines in AMICE project • Navigation • Agriculture • Water supply (drinking water) • Energy • Average discharge of the Meuse: Q = 230 m3/s • Decrease of discharge to Q = 130 m3/s • => economic problems occur (Woelders, Keizer; 2007) • Decrease of discharge below Q = 1100 m3/s • (water gauge Lobhit) sluices enclosed?

31. Low flow losses • Assessment of low flow situations

32. Evaluation of low flow losses • Navigation: Information questionnaire

33. Evaluation of low flow losses • Energy: Information questionnaire

34. Evaluation of low flow losses • Literature research examples: Agriculture => Important parameter to assess low flow losses in agriculture: Available Soil moisture content

35. Evaluation of low flow losses • Palmer drought severity index (PDSI): • Widely used in the USA • PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture • Algorithm based on most readily data: precipitation and temperature • - Qualitative Assessment • - Time scale Month (What do we need?)

36. Evaluation of low flow losses • Palmer drought severity index (PDSI): Evaluation of variance to „normal“ conditions Time scale of months Zi: value of the moisture anomaly K: Weighting factor for spatial variability D: Difference between actual precipitation and CAFEC precipitation CAFEC (Climatically Appropriate For Existing Conditions) precipitation: ET: Evapotranspiration PE: Potential ET R : Runoff PR: Potential Runoff L : Loss PL. Potential Loss

37. Evaluation of low flow losses • Palmer drought severity index (PDSI): Advantage: Easy to handle; Data availability Disadvantage: strongly simplification, Qualitative assessment

38. Evaluation of low flow losses • Aqua Crop: - AquaCrop is a product of FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) - Simulation model to determine the required amount of water for a specific crop yield - FAO crop requirements are calculated assuming a demand site with simplified hydrological agro-hydrological processes such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and crop growth - The FAO Agriculture Approach is widely used in other water management models e.g. WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning System)

39. Evaluation of low flow losses • Parameters FAO Approach

40. Evaluation of low flow losses • FAO Approach

41. Evaluation of low flow losses • Public Water supply: Literature Research ns:Intervals, demand is fully met N: total number of intervals (Ratio between the total volume released and the total demand volume) ns:Intervals, demand is fully met N: total number of intervals NP: number of sequent periods with deficits => Water availability – demand approach is required

42. Evaluation of low flow losses • PublicWater supply: Literature Research NS: days of period I state variable VE: water deficit VD: water demand during deficit DRI = 1 => high drought risk DRI = 0 => no drought risk - HEC-PRN - Aquatool - MODSIM - STELLA => Water Balance Models proposed

43. Evaluation of low flow losses • Navigation: Literature Research

44. Evaluation of low flow losses • Energy: Literature Research => Cooling water demands

45. low flow losses • Water Management Models available

46. Evaluation of low flow losses • Water Management Models used by AMICE partners

47. Evaluation of low flow losses • Water Management Models used by AMICE partners

48. Open Questions • Approaches to assess risk due to Low Flow

49. Open Questions 1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses - Available soil water content (agriculture)

50. Suggestion: Task group (LOW FLOW) 1. Navigation - Rijkswaterstaat (Netherlands) - De Scheepvart (Belgium) - IWW (Germany) 2. Agriculture - FUSAGx (Wallonia) - FHR - IWW (Germany) 3. Public Water Supply - IWW - AWW - FHR 4. Energy - EPAMA (French) - Wallonia Region - IWW (Germany)