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AP7. Quantification of the impacts of future floods and low-flows on the economy in the transnational Meuse basin. Structure. Definition of the terms in economic losses Evaluation Questionnaires German perspective of assessment in flood losses Drought losses Literature review PAWN (NL)

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Quantification of the impacts of future floods and low-flows on the economy in the transnational Meuse basin


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Structure

  • Definition of the terms in economic losses

  • Evaluation Questionnaires

  • German perspective of assessment in flood losses

  • Drought losses

    • Literature review

    • PAWN (NL)

    • EPIC Grid model (W)

    • MIKE Basin

  • Open Questions

  • Discussion


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Type of damages

  • Direct flood losses:

  • by inundation direct induced damages.

  • direct flood losses postulate direct contact with water, e.g. buildings, inventory, traffic areas and agricultural areas

  • direct flood losses are subdivided in immobile and mobile damages.

  • Indirect flood losses:

  • indirect damages are not generated by direct contact with water. indirect damages are caused by detraction of economic activities. e.g.

    • Immediate asset value losses; a short term consequence of inundation of business e.g. loss of production, disruption of economic activities

    • Induced asset value losses; affected companies are suppliers of not affected companies (chain reaction)

    • Prosperity damages, a long term consequence in a flood affected area due to lost of confidence in safety, absence of tourism, reduction of investments in the affected area.


Evaluation of direct flood losses

Evaluation of direct flood losses

  • Qualitative/Quantitative?


Evaluation of direct flood losses1

Land use category

Asset value for land use category [€m-2]

Inundation area; -depht

Relative damage

Damage per land use category [€]

rel. damage [%]

Waterdepht [m]

Stage damage function corresponding to land use

Evaluation of direct flood losses

  • Methodology of Quantitative monetary assessment

Bachmann et. al. 2009


Evaluation of direct flood losses2

Evaluation of direct flood losses

  • Methodology of Qualitative assessment

=> damage risk map: Expressing the potential damage of vulnerable

elements. Based on flood hazard and vulnerability


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Evaluation of direct flood losses


Evaluation of direct flood losses3

Evaluation of direct flood losses


Evaluation of direct flood losses4

Evaluation of direct flood losses


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Land use data


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Land use categories


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Land use categories


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Evaluation of indirect losses


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Indirect losses


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Uncertainty


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Land use category

Asset value for land use category [€m-2]

Inundation area; -depth

Relative damage

Damage per land use category [€]

rel. damage [%]

Waterdepht [m]

Stage damage function corresponding to land use

German perspective

  • General Approach


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German perspective

  • Damage Categories

  • Spatial Information : ATKIS Data (Vector data 1:25.000)

  • Aggregation of the ATKIS object groups

  • to damage categories for meso-scale economic damage

  • potential analysis

  • Allocation of damage functions and asset values to corresponding

  • damage categories


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German perspective

  • Example: Damage Category Aggregation


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German perspective

  • Damage functions of categories

1. Large number of damage

functions in literature

2. Representation of this variety

by stochastic interpretation

=> Probability Density Function

for each water level

=> Population Mean

=> damage function for economic

assessment

(Kutschera, 2008)


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German perspective

  • Damage function (industry immobile)

- including uncertainty

=> Quantile


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German perspective

  • Specific Asset Values (stochastically evaluated)


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German perspective

  • Example Wupper (BMBF REISE)

  • Land use data (ATKIS-Basis-DLM):

  • Raster data: Resolution 25m x 25m per grid cell

  • => Considered catchment area 282km2 (467.200 Elements)


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Open Questions

0. national / partially common/ common approach

  • Monetary-/ Qualitative Assessment

  • Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses

  • Direct flood losses mobile/immobile

  • Land use data

  • Determination of Land use categories

  • Flood damage functions/which hydraulic input variables (t/h/v…)

  • Assessment of direct/indirect losses


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Open Questions

1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses

- Existing damage functions in flood damage assessment


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Open Questions

2. Land use data?

- Suggestion CORINE data


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CORINE categories


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Open Questions

3. Aggregation of Land use data to Categories

=> CORINE Land use groups?


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Open Questions

4. Indirect flood losses?

- Partially approaches exist

but not tested

- Data availability?

- Time frame / Budget?


Low flow losses

low flow losses

  • Considered disciplines in AMICE project

    • Navigation

    • Agriculture

    • Water supply (drinking water)

    • Energy

  • Average discharge of the Meuse: Q = 230 m3/s

  • Decrease of discharge to Q = 130 m3/s

  • => economic problems occur (Woelders, Keizer; 2007)

  • Decrease of discharge below Q = 1100 m3/s

  • (water gauge Lobhit) sluices enclosed?


Low flow losses1

Low flow losses

  • Assessment of low flow situations


Evaluation of low flow losses

Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Navigation: Information questionnaire


Evaluation of low flow losses1

Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Energy: Information questionnaire


Evaluation of low flow losses2

Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Literature research examples: Agriculture

=> Important parameter to assess low flow losses in agriculture:

Available Soil moisture content


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Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):

  • Widely used in the USA

  • PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture

  • Algorithm based on most readily data: precipitation and temperature

  • - Qualitative Assessment

  • - Time scale Month (What do we need?)


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Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):

Evaluation of variance to

„normal“ conditions

Time scale of months

Zi: value of the moisture anomaly

K: Weighting factor for spatial variability

D: Difference between actual precipitation and CAFEC precipitation

CAFEC (Climatically Appropriate For Existing Conditions) precipitation:

ET: Evapotranspiration

PE: Potential ET

R : Runoff

PR: Potential Runoff

L : Loss

PL. Potential Loss


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Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):

Advantage: Easy to handle; Data availability

Disadvantage: strongly simplification, Qualitative assessment


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Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Aqua Crop:

- AquaCrop is a product of FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization

of the United Nations)

- Simulation model to determine the required amount

of water for a specific crop yield

- FAO crop requirements are calculated assuming a demand site

with simplified hydrological agro-hydrological processes such as

precipitation, evapotranspiration and crop growth

- The FAO Agriculture Approach is widely used in other

water management models e.g. WEAP (Water Evaluation

And Planning System)


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Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Parameters FAO Approach


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Evaluation of low flow losses

  • FAO Approach


Evaluation of low flow losses3

Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Public Water supply: Literature Research

ns:Intervals, demand is fully met

N: total number of intervals

(Ratio between the total volume released

and the total demand volume)

ns:Intervals, demand is fully met

N: total number of intervals

NP: number of sequent periods with deficits

=> Water availability – demand approach is required


Evaluation of low flow losses4

Evaluation of low flow losses

  • PublicWater supply: Literature Research

NS: days of period

I state variable

VE: water deficit

VD: water demand during

deficit

DRI = 1 => high drought risk

DRI = 0 => no drought risk

- HEC-PRN

- Aquatool

- MODSIM

- STELLA

=> Water Balance Models proposed


Evaluation of low flow losses5

Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Navigation: Literature Research


Evaluation of low flow losses6

Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Energy: Literature Research

=> Cooling water demands


Low flow losses2

low flow losses

  • Water Management Models available


Evaluation of low flow losses7

Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Water Management Models used by AMICE partners


Evaluation of low flow losses8

Evaluation of low flow losses

  • Water Management Models used by AMICE partners


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Open Questions

  • Approaches to assess risk due to Low Flow


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Open Questions

1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses

- Available soil water content (agriculture)


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Suggestion: Task group (LOW FLOW)

1. Navigation

- Rijkswaterstaat (Netherlands)

- De Scheepvart (Belgium)

- IWW (Germany)

2. Agriculture

- FUSAGx (Wallonia)

- FHR

- IWW (Germany)

3. Public Water Supply

- IWW

- AWW

- FHR

4. Energy

- EPAMA (French)

- Wallonia Region

- IWW (Germany)


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Data Collection? (Example)

1. Navigation

- Quantity of ships navigating the Meuse in a defined time scale

- Price per tons

2. Agriculture

- Agriculture areas in the Meuse basin

- Market prices of specific crops

3. Public Water Supply

- Wherefrom is drinking water taken?

4. Energy

- Temperature threshold values for cooling circuits

- Water demand of power plant (e.g. l/kwh)


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