Chapter(3). Qualitative Risk Analysis. Risk Model. Introduction. Having identified a range of risks we now need to consider which are the most serious risks in order to determine where to focus out attention and resources.
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We must accept that most of the risk analysis done in our environment will be of a qualitative nature.
Few of us have the skills, time or resources to undertake the kind of quantitative modeling that goes on in major projects in the commercial sector.
It is possible to improve the objectivity of your analysis without getting into complex calculations or needing specialist software tools.
We have already said that it pays to involve a range of people in the identification and analysis of risk.
Each will of course bring their own bias to the analysis but if you understand your organization and stakeholders it ought to be possible to separate out the valuable experience from the personal agendas
It is questionable whether the amber risks warrant separate classification in terms of your response strategy and it is suggested that you examine each in turn and either 'promote' or 'demote' them to red or green.
This can be important in assessing the overall level of risk especially if you opt for the straightforward linear scale in the first table.
This means particularly being clear about what you mean by a 'medium' level of probability.
The diagram below shows the previous example with the amber risks demoted or promoted (here those risks with a value of 10 or above have been promoted to red, below 10 demoted to green).