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Views of the Sun

How to Make a Forecast. Joe Kunches and Barbara Poppe Space Environment Center. The process of forecasting brings to bear all of the tools available: data, imagery, statistics, models, pattern recognition, and experience.

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Views of the Sun

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  1. How to Make a Forecast Joe Kunches and Barbara Poppe Space Environment Center The process of forecasting brings to bear all of the tools available: data, imagery, statistics, models, pattern recognition, and experience. It is the synthesis of all of the parts that results in a prediction for activity from the epicenter of our solar system, the Sun. Predicting space weather events begins with the very best possible understanding of the current state of the Sun. SEC forecasters gather the most recent data available that show various heights in the solar atmosphere. Terrestrial weather forecasters perform a similar exercise, constructing the Earth's atmosphere at various pressure (i.e., height) levels. • With this current data, the forecaster pieces together a picture of the current • Sun by constructing a three-dimensional profile of the solar atmosphere. • Using experience and climatological statistics, the forecaster makes an assessment: • How much free energy is available that might be released as a Solar Flare or Coronal Mass Ejection? • If there is a reservoir of energy available, how stable is it? • Can a potential “flash point" be seen that might trigger the eruption? • Some of the questions the forecaster must answer are: • If there is a flare, how large might it be? • When would it occur? • How long would it persist? • If a Mass Ejection occurs, will it be directed toward Earth? • And if it is, when will it pass and will that start a magnetic storm? • If it starts a magnetic storm, how long will that last and how strong will it be? Views of the Sun This EIT image was obtained in the Fe IX/X 171A emission line, formed in the solar transition region at a temperature of 1.3 million K. This image, from the SOHO Extreme UV Imaging Telescope (EIT), was obtained in the Fe XII emission line at 195A, formed in the solar corona at a temperature of 1.6 million K. This EIT image was obtained in the Fe XV 284A emission line, formed in the solar atmosphere, at a temperature of 2 million K. This EIT image was obtained in He II 304A, formed in the solar chromosphere in the 60,000 - 80,000 K temperature range. Title Title

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